Today, The Weekly Buzzing Stocks by Billy Kawasaki and The Panic-Proof Portfolio (Stockchase Research) commented about whether EVR, XLK, GL, DAL, MRVL, CSCO, ONDS, HTZ are stocks to buy or sell.
Remains very constructive on equity markets. A lot of the story now is the earnings power of the S&P 500, which has become the real market driver. Seeing almost unprecedented earnings growth forecasts going forward. Strong earnings mean a strong market.
We're in a major capital spending cycle, with the beneficiaries being data centres, chips, cloud, power, utilities, industrials, and automation. Those sectors are the parts of the market that are moving higher.
If you look at the cash component sitting on the sidelines in money markets, it's north of $7.9T in USD. If the geopolitical situation becomes more stable, and if earnings continue to be strong, then some of that $7.9T can rotate into risk assets like equities.
Still some cross-currents to be careful of. Somewhat sticky inflation, elevated long-term bond yields, oil volatility can pop back up, geopolitical situation can toughen up a bit. Seasonally, September could be a softer month. And then US midterms are coming up.
The inflation numbers have been somewhat benign. Expectations for a rate hike have been pushed out. The interest rate environment is beneficial. Oil prices coming down from peaks would be a tailwind for equities. Any volatility from geopolitics, September weakness, and midterms is normal and not thesis-changing.
Probably won't see lower rates in the near future. Likely flat for the time being.
Going back to 1950, midterm election years tend to have about a 15% drawdown. We had a 9% drawdown earlier this year, which was a pretty heavy almost-correction. September, right before the midterms, is also seasonally soft. Over the last 10 years, on average, September is a negative month. He wouldn't be surprised to see sideways movement or a bit of a pullback before those elections.
One thing to note is that the 6-12 months after midterms tends to be the strongest period in the 4-year presidential cycle.
Oil prices are a wild card, as it really depends what's happening in the world. Looking at futures markets, oil is expected to come down to the $70 level. It did come down, but then went back up.
Base case is that things will continue to be resolved as time goes by. Oil prices should calm down into the $70s.
Share price is falling below falling 200-day and 50-day MAs. Technically, he'd be challenged to consider this name right now. 55% dividend cut removes that worry for the time being. Telecom space is a tough neighbourhood for earnings growth. Telus projecting only 1-2% earnings growth over next few years.
Wait for a basing pattern, reassess at that point.