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COMMENT
Volatility.

Not sure what's driving it. The Fed decision is out of the way and there are 2 weeks left in the year. We should be coasting, but that doesn't appear to be the case. 

We've had mixed results from ORCL and AVGO, and anything around AI and AI capex is hyper-sensitized right now.  Investors may also have been waiting for that last Fed catalyst, and now that there's nothing left in the year they're trimming positions. Who knows?

Whatever it is, it doesn't really matter to his firm. Though down today, the TSX remains strong and is down much less than the NASDAQ and the S&P 500.

COMMENT
Takeaways from 2025.

Looking back on this year, it's been crazy. It feels like four years instead of one :)  This time last year we weren't even talking about tariffs in a major way, and now it's part of everyday discourse. Even if we'd known that, we wouldn't have expected markets to behave the way they have. We probably wouldn't have expected the TSX to be up as much as it is.

It's been a surprisingly strong year. And that's why you stay invested. You don't know when things are going to perform or not perform, so you have to stay the course no matter what.

COMMENT
AI.

He has concerns. Many of those are because a lot of this looks like and rhymes with a lot of things that have happened previously. He's a student of history, so he uses the past to make decisions about the future.

The other thing that's concerning is how big an influence this space has on the broader market. If we have a problem here, it will be systemic. Concern is really starting to be seen around the bond market. Companies have done a lot of borrowing, and capex continues to inflect upwards from already-elevated levels which now must be financed with more debt than equity. That's where the rubber's going to hit the road, and we're going to have to start seeing some cashflows from all this investment.

COMMENT
Portfolio positioning for 2026.

His team hasn't really changed positioning much in the last couple of years. They were early into the themes of electrification and demand for electricity. AI has pushed that further than they would have thought. So there is some concern that if the data centre buildout proves not to be quite as broad as people are thinking, that disappointment will be seen in many stocks. But it's going to hit the hyperscalers even more.

He's not necessarily counting on the demand from AI. He's counting on steady demand from near-shoring and re-shoring, climate change, migration, warmer temperatures increasing demand for cooling. Data centres are on top of that.

His firm is pretty happy with how they're positioned. What they'd like to see is a broader mean reversion (aka a pullback) to get some more $$ invested. Right now holding about 10% in cash, and would like to get that down to 2-5% (especially with interest rates dropping).

SELL
Investor's finally above water. Time to sell?

Surprised by its dramatic move this year. Some improvements at the company. He'd be concerned about government support for the dairy sector in light of CUSMA being renegotiated. Global trade is getting more difficult, especially in protected industries. Certainly not a buy for his clients. Better things to own.

BUY

Nice recovery this year. Big contracts with hyperscalers. Things look pretty good. Likes nuclear side of the business with Westinghouse. A good fit in a TFSA or RRSP. Yield is ~5%.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Laundry primarily for healthcare, but also some hospitality. Likes it long term. A good diversifier. Steady business, good management team. He adds when it dips below $35. Recent big acquisition, so may be a couple of years away from dividend growth. Yield is ~3.5%.

HOLD

This year, money has rotated from telcos to cable companies like this one. Inferior network, both wireless and wired. Telcos' capex winding down, cable companies now need to spend to upgrade. Fairly valued today, telecoms are much cheaper and probably due for some sort of mean reversion. Be cautious, but if you already own there's no reason to part with it.

Sports team has added value, but still has to buy out (using debt) the remaining minority stake. Then what? Family may want to still retain control. May not be as big a monetization as people are hoping -- an uncertain catalyst.

DON'T BUY

This year, money has rotated from telcos to cable companies like this one. Telcos' capex winding down, cable companies now need to spend to upgrade. Telecoms are much cheaper and probably due for some sort of mean reversion. Be very cautious.

PARTIAL SELL

His firm was holding its nose and buying in the $75-80 range, and incredible run surprised them. Money, broadly, has been coming into Canada (though telecoms and rails are languishing).

Not purchasing right now. For clients in need of cash or those who have a big weighting, he's been trimming bank holdings a bit, but not selling 50% of a position or anything like that. Pricing power, diversified business unit, capital markets a huge winner this year. Mixed picture for 2026-27.

DON'T BUY

An example of a company his firm wouldn't touch. That doesn't mean it won't recover, but a lot of things are happening. Management turmoil, family issues, board fight, legal proceedings. Might get back to $30 eventually, but that doesn't help the people who bought at $45.

He wants dividend income and a consistent approach from management.

BUY

A surprise to him similar to TD, but in the opposite direction. Once BCE cut its dividend, there was blood in the water and gave people a reason to run away from its closest peer, Telus. But Telus is in a bit of a different situation.

Its big, decade-long capex spend on fibre to the home started 2-3 years earlier. Had an easier time of it, as it was in jurisdictions with newer infrastructure. Doesn't think they have to cut dividend. Market may have preferred them to pay down debt faster, and this is short-term thinking. ENB and ALA faced similar market pressure around 2017-18, and look where they are today.

Competition in Canada has been tough but it won't be forever, and these are forever assets. Don't sweat the small stuff, buy it here.

PARTIAL SELL

Transition is slow-going. Market didn't like its buying a stake in KEY. Question is:  where are they going strategically? Meanwhile, you have cost-cutting, capital markets, and share buybacks. Money has flowed to the TSX this year driving banks higher, but nothing has fundamentally changed with this name.

If you're overweight, you could trim. No calamity on the horizon. He'd just want to see some heat come out of the market before purchasing.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 04/25, Up 8%)

Likes it a lot; would've been a Top Pick again, if it weren't a Past Top Pick. Chart shows big spike up in October on data centre news, then came back off because KKR is potentially shopping its stake in JV with Pembina. Market has concerns on floating LNG project, but he doesn't. 

Chart shows it trying to bump through $55, but keeps bouncing off. Once it gets through there, looks pretty good. Growth prospects still good. Meanwhile, clip a 5% dividend while you wait.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 04/25, Up 27%)

Chose it for the nice, sustainable dividend. Didn't expect it to perform so well when crude's down 13% this year (but seeds are there for pricing to firm up). Again, we've seen money flows into Canada and into energy. Starting to get a nice re-rate, yet dividend still hefty.

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