50% off Premium Yearly
He's cautious for 2026. Earnings and capital markets have been very good in 2025, especially for Canada. The U.S. 10-year yield can't break 4%, which is a barrier to investment. Earnings growth always looks for the coming year. Fundamentals of rates and earnings are merely okay. There's so much uncertainty, starting with tariffs. Will we get a US Supreme Court judgement this or next month? What will happen with inflation? Will companies raise prices? The Fed will look at numbers and wait. What will happen to oil if there's a peace agreement? And to the US dollar? Interest rates have never been more important given so much debt. Suppose borrowing costs rise? Debt is important. We have a K-shapes economy: people with assets and people who don't own houses or stocks and are not participating in this economy. There's a growing discontent in the latter. He will sit and watch.
Carney is a lot better than the previous PM, so this is positive. However, Canadian banks aren't yielding 4-5% like a year ago, but 3%. Our economy is bleeding jobs, and there are problems with real estate. The jobs being created aren't replacing the ones lost. He'd rather get a higher yield from a utility or pipeline than a bank.
The Mag 7 are losing momentum. Growth potential has been great, but is declining now. They face a problem in all the energy needed to power the AI stocks. Amazon has been a laggard among peers. But its retail business generates revenues to offset potential weakness in other business, something that Amazon's peers face.
It's struggled the past two years. He bought it when Russia invaded Ukraine. The market didn't like VET buying a company to bring more nat gas into North America. Over the years, they've done an amazing job returning money to shareholders, so managers are good. Pays a 4% dividend, so he's being paid to wait. He would buy at this level.
It was quite interesting that they bought Westinghouse and now they hold 50% interest in the "arm supplier" to the nuclear business. Anything growing that involves nuclear with touch Westinghouse--he saw this as a growth avenue. CCO has a stable cash flow. Nuclear is a long-term growth industry because AI centres need power.
How much do you need for income? How much to protect your portfolio from calamity? Bonds don't pay yields like 4% and bonds also face more risk from inflation uncertainty. You buy gold to protect from inflation or geopolitical uncertainty. He holds 20% gold and 20% bonds in his portfolios. He wouldn't move his bonds into gold, but keep above-average gold for protection.