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Is not surprised that the Nasdaq is falling 2% today. It's a carry-over from Friday. There's a lot of hype and craziness in some chip stocks. People are getting ahead of themselves. True, numbers are staggering with a trillion spent on AI in 2027, but at some point you're overpaying for the future and all the good news is priced in. Also, big IPOs are coming like openAI and SpaceX--no profits but will be priced for perfection. Meanwhile, many profitable names making tons of money are ignored, like Visa and Microsoft. We're still using all their products, but they don't have AI hype. If you accept this FOMO, accept that it's volatile--it's gambling and silliness. Not every AI stock will make money. Look at past busts. The future is happening, but not every company will participate. Invest in companies that make predictable profits.
It doesn't matter which Canadian bank you bought 20-30 years ago; all offered double-digit returns with growing dividends. No question that their valuations are the highest in a long time, because they sailed through all worries (higher mortgages, a Toronto housing collapse didn't happen, tariffs, Iran war). Meanwhile, the banks have transformed more to fees and recurring revenue.
The demand of GLP remains strong, but as more generics enter the market, the prices of the GLPs will go down. If you bet on Teva, you expects GLP demand to remain strong. GLP will come in pill shape, and there will be more amazing drug discoveries. However, Teva isn't a very innovative company. He avoids pharma; it's too hard to determine who will be a winner.
Has underperformed recently. He sold it around $35. It's in junk auctions (i.e. crashed cars). Growth is lagging a peer, which is linked to an insurance company to give it an edge. Also, in the US car insurance is so expensive (record levels of people driving without car insurance). So, there are fewer cases of cars being sent to Copart to be repaired or sold. Long term, CPRT is a great business with a great balance sheet. He will watch it, but lacks growth now.
He started buying this in 2021 when the stock got hammered during Covid, but recovered after it. SYK has been hammered this year because of overall weakness in the health sector. Also, SYK had a cybersecurity attack. SYK has the best relationships with doctors and is arguably the leader in medical devices. The valuation is attractive. Expects $15 EPS in 2027 at 20x PE. Is growing the topline 10%. The population is aging.
He won't bet on commodities on bad news. They grow production every year and watch costs. They have giant reserves. Long term, a headwind will be growing demand for EVs, as in China. Oil will eventually revert to $50-60 and this stock will correct a bit. CNQ can grow production 3-5% a year and its dividend 5-10%. He will own this long term. Is doing all the right things.
Tech companies like this got too expensive and got ahead of themselves. MSFT is still growing in double digits. AI won't go away, so the companies that invested will benefit for many years. MSFT is depressed now because it's not as an exciting story as Micron or Nvidia. The PE of 22x is attractive. Software isn't going anywhere.
TSM was cheap last year because of worries that China will invade Taiwan. TSM is the bottleneck to AI. They are the most important company around--they make the products for Nvidia, Qualcomm, everybody. Musk and Intel say they will compete with TSM, but building those factories will take years. TSM's demand will last years. Valuation remains okay. Prefers this to Nvidia any day.
It's risky to bet on derivatives of growth of other industries. If you think the AI boom will continue, it doesn't mean you need to invest in copper and power, because you may not got a pure play on that theme. Copper is used for many other products which could go bad or if there's a recession. Demand has been pulled forward for years, so the valuation is pricing in all the good news.
The market fears AI will take over software. The most important thing in this discussion is owning proprietary data that no AI can access. TRI probably fits this bill; they've collected years of data on accounting, law, health care, which is protected from AI. Demand for their products will continue. He owns TRI's peers like TMX, which are better run, but if you own this, don't sell TRI. TRI's fundamentals are still doing very well. The valuation is no longer extreme, but attractive. The Thomson family owns a lot of shares. Let it breathe and give it time. Would be attracted to it if he didn't already own similar names.