Vermilion Energy Inc (VET.TO)

Work in progress / value trap. Starting to condense geographical exposure. Better oil and natural gas names to buy. Lacking catalysts and sizzle.

His bias is toward natural gas names right now. Natural gas is a long-term solution to all the green problems in the world. Stability comes from market demand from data centres, etc. Perfect intermediate fuel between today and nuclear power.

(Note the shortish timeframe.)  Hated last year, in the doghouse. Disciplined management team pulled it off. Largest holding in his O&G portfolio.

TSX-listed, yet international in scope. France, Netherlands, Germany, Ireland, Australia, plus Canada. Demand for energy in Europe growing quite rapidly. A number of years back, Europe shut down a lot of coal, nuclear, etc. -- a strategy based on hope. With wars in Ukraine and Middle East, Europe's realizing it needs more domestic production. 

Now starting to see some synergies from acquisition last year. Expects production to continue to expand. About 50% of FCF distributed to shareholders. Trading near book value. Yield is 2.90%.

First time he's bullish on this name in many a year. Europe is short energy (after admitting letting nuclear go was a mistake) and going to be begging for fuel to keep the lights on. What to do? You buy natural gas. 24% FCF yield.

Good for a trade, not a long-term hold. Still has issues. Future is really Canadian nat gas. Make sure you plan your exit for when the macro changes.

He's liked energy before the Iran war, because oil is overlooked. Since 2024, the chart shows a nice cup formation, with higher lows and higher highs. Now, it's trying to break resistance around $16 and he expects it to.

Nat gas producer. Most of its production is in Western Europe. He prefers Western Canadian producers, especially with increased egress via LNG terminals.

It's struggled the past two years. He bought it when Russia invaded Ukraine. The market didn't like VET buying a company to bring more nat gas into North America. Over the years, they've done an amazing job returning money to shareholders, so managers are good. Pays a 4% dividend, so he's being paid to wait. He would buy at this level.

Owned years ago. Critical of overall strategy, spread out over too many countries. Now consolidating, with more focus on Europe and Canada (especially in Montney). On his radar, watching, not terribly compelling at the moment. Yield is 3.9%.

If you're sitting on a loss, consider harvesting for tax-loss selling. With proceeds, consider either an energy fund ;) or one of today's Top Picks.

Volatile. One of the weaker performers in the group. 65% oil. Has turned higher because energy has turned higher.

Here's something to consider:  if you bought between August 2022 and recently, you're likely underwater. Most of those buyers are just waiting for the stock to get back to what they paid so they can get out. So this name has a lot of built-in sellers. Compare this to IMO.

Assets are 90% gas, 10% legacy oil. Europe accounts for 25% of production, and local situations control the price of gas. Huge geopolitical situations in that region cause prices to fluctuate more than in Canada and NA. That will cause volatility in stock price. You have to be careful.

He likes TOU instead.

It is trading where it should. There are headwinds with European gas prices. It has struggled quite a lot but the last quarter was reasonable. You should probably sell it for something with more growth.

Canadian gas is where it's at. Interesting angle with this name is that they have gas in Europe -- Ireland, Germany -- and the market's not fully reflecting these assets in the price. Well managed, good tradition of being shareholder friendly via dividends, buybacks, and managing debt well. Underappreciated. 

In this market, he doesn't want to chase highs. He's looking for stocks that haven't moved yet because the market is overlooking them. Yield is 4.78%.

It went international, at least partially, but there is lots of opportunity in Canada. Also international valuations are lower. Return on Capital is lower than what he looks at. He would consider Logan instead.

If you own, sell it and buy names like WCP, which pays a higher dividend.  VET's bases are scattered around the world. VET poorly executes.