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COMMENT
Markets getting hammered.

Partly due to concerns about tech. The broader question is why are markets up 20% in the first place? 

When you look at how the year started, we were talking about tariff wars, we had actual wars, widening deficits,  shutdown in the US, slowing growth. Yet somehow stock markets are up 20% in the US and Canada.

COMMENT
Is the recent selloff a positive?

It's a healthy thing. We're at very high valuations in both Canadian and US markets, and not necessarily justified by the fundamentals. There's a lot of froth coming about from AI, which has pushed up a lot of the tech stocks and pulled the market up. Hard to justify on a fundamental basis.

COMMENT
Advice to clients.

We've only pulled back 2%, so we're still at record valuations by any measure you want to use. Markets can continue to go up, but he'd argue that upside is limited. Some caution is warranted at this point.

COMMENT
Opportunities to be had?

There are always opportunities, especially in the Canadian mid-cap space. That segment tends to have a lot fewer eyeballs on it, and those stocks are generally underfollowed and undervalued. As a consequence, always effective places to put capital to work in the space.

Pretty limited selection in Canada when it comes to technology stocks, and his firm is focused in Canada. Quality tech stocks in Canada are few and far between. See his Top Picks for a name he's positive on. In the Canadian market, he tends to look at segments other than tech.

DON'T BUY

Surprised to see how much it's rallied from April lows. Valuation is ~3x EV/EBITDA, phenomenally cheap. Auto parts plus mobility business. He'd be very concerned in general about owning a Canadian manufacturer, especially with CUSMA up for renegotiation next year. He steers clear of auto stocks, regardless of any upcoming trade clarity.

DON'T BUY

He's always been critical of management, but it has done better than expected over last few years. History of overpromising and underdelivering. Not sure a leopard can change its spots. Tread very carefully.

WATCH

Seemed to beat expectations when it just reported. Trading off a bit today. Really outperformed this year in terms of guidance. However, has had tailwinds from commodities and those can reverse. On his radar, will do some work on it. Be cautious after the run it's had.

DON'T BUY
Cut dividend and guidance.

Not a fan. Too much enthusiasm went into the renewable energy companies. In 2022 they all went up like rockets, and in 2023 they all came down. Younger investors tend to back green energy, got overvalued, coming back to roost. He's cautious on the whole sector.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Great run, he continues to be very positive on it. In Canada, we can't afford an aircraft carrier and can barely afford submarines. Drones might be a low-cost way for us to start being more assertive in terms of our sovereignty in the North. In growth mode supplying batteries to its US partner. Canadian government may possibly invest.

BUY

Largest and most liquid of the apartment REITs, which is probably the most defensive REIT group. Concerns about rental market in Canada, with 13 consecutive months of rent decreasing. Headlines aren't great, but a quality name to own. Canada still has shortage of rental housing. 

Very good place to park your money. Yield is ~4%.

Disclosure: he bought it for a family member years ago.

BUY

Stock's struggled on CEO retirement plus short report (an easy spin on complicated financial accounting) plus recent disappointing results. Skeptical about merits of short report. Largest sub-prime lender in Canada. Hasn't bought more because he has to manage position size, but happy to hold. Sentiment is driving the stock right now.

Trades ~7x PE right now, 6x going forward. Pretty cheap for a company that's going to consistently grow. A Buy at these levels. Previous CEO noted that its clients are in a recession pretty well all the time, so when there's a real recession they hardly notice it.

COMMENT
Activist investors.

He's generally in favour of them, because management in Canada is generally very complacent. Shareholders are even worse, they're like sheep. Activists can come in and review things very positively. One of his Top Picks highlights this reason as a potential catalyst coming up.

DON'T BUY

Never a big fan. Reminds him of Valeant, which bought drug companies and then jacked up the prices simply because they could. DND had the same model. It's descended into a soap opera.

WATCH

Moves propane and other fuels around Canada and the US. Essentially a logistics business. Guidance changed from 10% in US to negative 5%. Efficiency program hasn't worked as expected. Interesting, but wants to see it deliver.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 21/25, Down 9%)

(Note the short timeframe.)  Rents have come down across Canada this year. Because this name is not subject to rent controls, it's been more sensitive to that. Lots of dry capital to put to use. Great growth story. One of his top 3 holdings.

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