COMMENT
Pressures on markets.

Nobody knows when the Iran conflict is going to end, but the market tends to overlook these geopolitical events if not the price of oil. Generally speaking, markets have been trending higher and doing very well in light of this geopolitical uncertainty. 

The less stabilizing part of the market is the discussion around AI and how long that trend will persist. When oil moves $30 a barrel seemingly every week, this sector tends to get overlooked.

COMMENT
Tech capex spend.

It'll take a long time to figure out whether companies are overspending or not, and whether they'll be able to monetize those investments. These companies will continue to plow money in, and they don't really have a choice at this time. Time is a big competitor, and North American companies really have to stay ahead of the curve.

The spending is a sustainable factor in the market, and has been lifting a lot of the market recently. There have been a lot of investment flows in a lot of different sectors, and that's been very helpful to capital markets.

COMMENT
Bull run continuing?

Yes, that's what his team sees. One pushback they get is that the bull market's lasted for 3.7-3.8 years now, when is it going to run out? Bull markets tend to last a lot longer than people think (average is ~5.5 years).

There's a very good backdrop right now. The economy's doing quite well, and so are companies. We're getting through Q2 earnings, and the earnings have been very strong. Despite oil prices being all over the map, and being high right now, companies are still performing very well. In that environment, markets can continue to do well for a while.

COMMENT
Blockbuster earnings reports, but some stocks come down.

It can happen, and GOOG is a good example of that. It had a very good quarter on topline and bottom, but it's increasing the capex spend. Investors see some uncertainty around that. Generally speaking, the volatility will come out of the stock and it'll start to move higher again.

DON'T BUY

Supply chain management. Pure play software, and AI is perfectly designed to manage these types of things. Very ripe for disruption by AI. These companies talk about AI to their advantage, but he thinks there's going to be more disruption than benefit.

SELL

He sold. AI is perfectly designed to manage these types of logistics. Very ripe for disruption by AI. These companies talk about AI to their advantage, but he thinks there's going to be more disruption than benefit.

COMMENT
Out of software completely?

No, just certain types. Supply chains and logistics are areas he's avoiding.

WATCH
Higher dividend increases ahead?

He knows the CEO, and the plan is not to increase the dividend in a material way. The idea is to grow by acquiring additional storage facilities. Free cashflow got out of line during Covid. Business is now more stable, with lots of opportunities to grow.

Likes it, watching closely.

COMMENT
Favourite investments for a taxable account?

Right now with all the uncertainty around interest rates, his firm is short-duration fixed income. Doesn't look as though Canada will raise rates. 

Note that income from fixed income is fully taxable. If you really need to be in fixed income, he advocates corporate bonds at the short end, and probably investment grade. If you're comfortable, some high-quality companies may not be investment grade but give you a slightly higher yield.

Preferred shares are a good way to get income through dividends. Stable, though not as stable as fixed income. Yields of ~5-6% are roughly double what you're getting on fixed income right now, and those yields are tax-advantaged.

DON'T BUY
Bought shares yesterday at $29.84 for a long-term hold.

He doesn't own any telcos right now. Fixed income proxies, not a lot of growth. No more than a dividend play until something changes. Nothing tragic will happen to it, but it's not the best investment for him.

DON'T BUY

Customers are government and large enterprise. Sees lots of disruption from AI, especially as AI gets better.

He'd probably sell even if it means a loss, though it's painful to do that. In a taxable account, you could use it to offset some of your gains.

HOLD
Bought in ~$60.

He'd hold. Despite the incredible chart, the banks are very well positioned. Benefitting from GenAI and AI investments. Regulatory environment is in their favour with OSFI lowering threshold for risk-weighted assets, which means they have more capital to lend. Consumer is reasonably healthy. As long as interest rates don't go flying through the roof anytime soon, the banks can continue to do well.

HOLD

The banks are very well positioned. Benefitting from GenAI and AI investments. Regulatory environment is in their favour with OSFI lowering threshold for risk-weighted assets, which means they have more capital to lend. Consumer is reasonably healthy. As long as interest rates don't go flying through the roof anytime soon, the banks can continue to do well.

HOLD

The banks are very well positioned. Benefitting from GenAI and AI investments. Regulatory environment is in their favour with OSFI lowering threshold for risk-weighted assets, which means they have more capital to lend. Consumer is reasonably healthy. As long as interest rates don't go flying through the roof anytime soon, the banks can continue to do well.

HOLD

The banks are very well positioned. Benefitting from GenAI and AI investments. Regulatory environment is in their favour with OSFI lowering threshold for risk-weighted assets, which means they have more capital to lend. Consumer is reasonably healthy. As long as interest rates don't go flying through the roof anytime soon, the banks can continue to do well.