COMMENT

The oil price has returned to pre-war prices. So, the market will shift attention to the U.S. 10-year bond yield. That yield has risen to 4.5% in recent weeks; typically at this level, forward market returns are muted. AI stocks are insulated, but all other areas, namely growth stocks, have seen downward pressure. He expects the U.S. 10-year to come down and broaden out the rally. Falling oil and gas will lead to lower inflation expectations. Meanwhile, rent prices are starting to roll over, which will lead to tailwinds for core CPI.

BUY
Altagas vs. Pembina

Both benefit from AI centre demand. Pembina is building a 1.8 gigawatt natural gas plant in Alberta. Half of ALA's business is in the US, regulated utilities, in Virginia--the world capital of data centre traffic. ALA also has activity in Western Canada. ALA's growth rate is higher than Pembina. ALA gets the slight edge.

WEAK BUY
vs. Altagas

Both benefit from AI centre demand. Pembina is building a 1.8 gigawatt natural gas plant in Alberta. Half of ALA's business is in the US, regulated utilities, in Virginia--the world capital of data centre traffic. ALA also has activity in Western Canada. ALA's growth rate is higher than Pembina. ALA gets the slight edge.

WEAK BUY

Benefits from geopolitical risk and more defense spending worldwide. Shares rose in January, but has since come off. One reason is pressure from the U.S. 10-year bond yield on most growth stocks outside AI. Also, KTOS trades at a high 80x PE. However, it has a strong balance sheet and high growth ahead.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

They do sub-prime loans, but also proprietary AI credit score system that other lenders use. Their dividend growth is excellent and trades at a cheap 7x PE. But credit losses popped up which impacted earnings, and there was a sympathy trade with GoEasy which hurt PRL. The downturn is starting to flatline and hopefully bounces off $25-28.

BUY

A solid utility that pays a good dividend. Great for income and has fine growth. Will do well in bear markets. They also benefit from data centre builds.

WEAK BUY

Trades at 11x forward PE and pays a 2% dividend. It will benefit from sustained fertilizer prices which have been impacted by the US-Iran war. That said, NTR benefits from lower energy costs, lowering their input costs. If the price of fertilizer stays flat or moves slightly higher, NTR will move higher. There will be capital rotation eventually. 

BUY

Likes it Investors overlook it. Pays a bit of a yield. The TSX and TSX-V exchanges have been solid businesses. TMX is also entering a new data analytics platform. It has good recurring revenue based on subscriptions. It was hit by the broad software sell-off. Will do well long term, but need to see a price floor during this decline.

COMMENT
ATRL vs. Stantec

Both benefit from the AI centre build and construction projects by the Canadian government. Are sold performers long term. He prefers Stantec. Like WSP, they should see the net benefit of AI data centres, but are trading like software stocks. Eventually, this reverses to the upside after we see sustained earnings momentum and beats.

BUY
ATRL vs. Stantec

 Both benefit from the AI centre build and construction projects by the Canadian government. Are sold performers long term. He prefers Stantec. Like WSP, they should see the net benefit of AI data centres, but are trading like software stocks. Eventually, this reverses to the upside after we see sustained earnings momentum and beats. 

PARTIAL BUY

It sees volatility from the changing oil price; managers can't predict where fuel margins are going. They saw a breakout quarter recently, driven by wide fuel margins. Management has built a supply chain from several suppliers to keep prices low, despite the oil price spike recently. Their last earnings beat was major. Next quarter could be more volatile as the oil price falls. ATD is hitting new highs. There could be profit-taking before the stock price resumes going up.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 13/26, Down 10%)

It had a nice run up, then went down. Investors have overlooked TMX for the long term. They operate solid businesses. When volatility spikes, they make money off higher volumes. They generate big money from their data analytics platform. In 2017, they bought Trade Port, a European energy trading software platform, and in 2024 bought VettaFi (to help create ETFs) which is a fast-growing business. TMX sales grew 16%, EBITDA beat by 7% while net income more than doubled. After that report, TMX reported two companies it bought which expanded their debt. That's why shares took a hit.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 13/26, Up 15%)

Suffered from fears of AI disruption, so shares cut in half. Recent earnings, though, show 20% sales growth year over year, 6% organic growth while net income more than doubled. Sales and earnings beat. PE has risen from 15x to 18x since last Spring. Shares are seeing an uptrend.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 13/26, Up 3%)

Recent earnings saw sales growth of nearly 40% and management guided from slower growth, so shares go hit. Investors are reluctant because of SHOP's high PE. The fundamentals are there and they are poised for AI. Is solid for the long term.

HOLD

Many tailwinds: AI data centre builds, EVs, renewables and nuclear power. Their order backlog is growing. Shares are sharply higher, and so is their PE. Needs to see a pullback and consolidation before moving higher.