Today, Hap (Robert) Sneddon FCSI commented about whether KO-N, BRK.B-N, DFY-T, SU-T, HPS.A-T, AMZN-Q, HMC-N, CHE.UN-T, COST-Q, SU-EPA, C-N, BMO-T, CRR.UN-T, MI.UN-T, NVDA-Q, VIX-I, GOOG-Q, WCP-T are stocks to buy or sell.
The rollout was awful. The US administration talked about fair treatment, so he went and looked at existing tariffs on US goods into other nations, and they're astronomical. So he sort of gets it. Vietnam, for example, was slapped with a 45% tariff; well, they have a 90% tariff on US goods.
When you look at what the end game is, which is some version of free trade, the end goal is kind of noble. But the rollout was terrible. With the exception of food security, everything else is open to negotiation and that's what we'll get to eventually on free trade.
This doesn't feel as though it's going to break quickly, but we're in a time of cascading news such as China's response today. Every country has to start to negotiate.
There are a couple of different gauges out there, with 100 being total exuberance. Today we're at 4, exceptionally washed out. When things speed up like this, investors should slow down. If you're a short-term trader, and you wanted to short, you're too late. At the moment, you're probably better to look at where there's value right now than trying to protect anything.
Broke below the March low, an indication that it's going lower. Barring a dramatic reversal in the price of natural gas, which it's tilted more towards, it's probing lower. Going back on a 3-year chart, no place to hang your hat yet.
Lots of damage in last 2 days. There's a lot of value there, but you have to wait to see where to step in. All of energy will be wait and see.
He looks for things that pop up and grab his attention to say that we're getting close to a bottom. There is some speculation that the current situation is going to look like a "V" on the chart, because the macro picture is still decent.
The first thing he'd look at would be sentiment. You can look at the Fear & Greed Index, made up of 7 components. Right now we're at 4, and you can't go below 0, so we're getting there. You can also look at the put/call ratio. Look for things that are have suffered a bit but, overall, are working quite well on a day like today.
You're not going to time it perfectly, but these indicators tell you when it's time to start hunting.
It's another indicator that tells us about nervousness by sensing volatility. If you own the VIX, this is probably a really good time to sell. It's right at the peak that we saw last August.
It's a background thing, not a way to perfect timing. Tells you the neighbourhood you're in, but doesn't tell you what to do. You can look at these moves in terms of standard deviations, and how far away from the average are we. Moves of 2 or 3 don't sound big, but they're actually quite big in terms of deviation from the average.
Acting quite well. He's been picking some up, including a broad-sector one in the US. Rates coming down has certainly helped, as it makes housing more affordable. Lots of predictability in this sector and usually ( though not always) safer. Income you get from it tends to buffer against other issues.
It's also local, so tends not to be impacted as much by the macro. Though what we're seeing in the markets now is because everyone will be impacted, but having a more "domestic" look insulates you a bit.
Looking at the chart, the 50-day MA and the 200-day have converged. It's trying to find support right here, right now. The price doesn't have to fall, the indicators can just soften as the market works through the oversold level. If it doesn't hold, it would certainly be a buy amidst the congestion between $104-130.