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In the US, everybody expects a minimum 25 bps cut if not 50 bps. Canada started cutting early, perhaps being the first G7 to cut. He's not sure if we'll keep suit, but we have cover now to keep going along with the US.
It puts them in a bit of a bind with where we are in the economic picture right now. Some things are softening and supporting expectations of rate cuts, but we're also seeing some inflationary pressures start to build again. The Fed is notoriously late on things, but he thinks Powell is trying to be prudent right now. Thinks the Fed would rather wait, but the clarion sound is so shrill right now, they feel they have to cut.
This all started right after the US election with the threat of tariffs coming. Then early in February, he was looking at the futures, particularly the FX, and the CAD was just getting crushed. The CAD went on to recover.
With the tariff announcements, the prognostications were that we'd be in big trouble. That whole narrative got unwound. So all those people who were worried about it are coming in late to the market. If we look at the structure of the market right now, this is not the best time. Lots of technicals signalling caution -- September/October is historically weak, some indicators are at overbought.
This piling in is missing out on some of the returns we've seen since April and is trying to push in at the last minute.
That said, there's some sort of corrective environment in the offing. Whatever the nature of it is or how long, it's going to be bid at the lows and right after that.
Natural gas is a funny commodity -- price movements are so erratic. Domestic market can move 5-10% in a day. LNG is trying to create a global market.
Chart shows corrective phase last 6 months. Break recently, but don't read too much into that because it has a lot of support in the $24 range. Might go as low as $20. Whole sector's starting to look quite interesting. See his Top Picks.
A triple top means that a stock has tried to punch to new highs 3 times. You exhaust the buyers each time this happens, and then there was bad news in early 2025 and it was easy for the stock to fall. That downward move is exaggerated because there are no more buyers to step in.
Chart shows how it's now back in congestion of 2021-2022, so it's found some new buyers. He's always found the transportation sector a challenging area in which to make money.
After 30 years in the business, there are some areas he just avoids because they never seem to make money. Transportation is one, with too many variables that make it challenging to make money. Airlines. Car makers. Modern car makers like TSLA and RIVN are a different kettle of fish, as they're changing the structure of the business.
There is a relationship between the commodity and the producers of commodities. Commodities and producers should go in the same direction, but it's always the producers that lead. Because they're the smart people who know what's going on with that commodity, whether gold or oil.
If producers are high and then start to roll over, but the commodity stays high, then you can bet the commodity will eventually roll over. And vice versa.
Producers always lead the commodity. So you'd look at this name for guidance on natural gas. The terrible downtrend on the chart is being challenged. Hoping that $2 level is a bottom going back to 2021, and a place "to hang your hat" -- you're not sure what the future holds, but you think the worst is over.
He loves this kind of setup. The story's still a bit negative, but someone's buying it. The price action always has more information than you know, it's trying to tell you something, there is interest there. A good risk here. See his Top Picks.
Chart shows what he likes about the whole sector. The consolidation is quite positive. If it broke the lower end, around $252, then he would be worried about a sustained decline. But he'd also be really excited by a break above $302, and would probably add there.
If you're not sure, then just put in a 1.5% position today out of 3%. If it breaks to the upside, then you'll pay more to confirm that your idea was a good one.
Chart's gone parabolic, indicators are screaming overbought. The thing about mean reversion, is there's no justice in the market and it doesn't have to happen that way. You either say you'll buy more when it goes down, but it never does. Or you decide to buy on the downswing, and it just keeps on diving.
Be cautious, just because of the steep parabolic move on the chart. Look for it to go sideways. If you don't own, don't jump in now. If you do own, clip some profits now but keep your base position.
Sometimes it's like the advice you get from your mom or your grandma, like put your coat on. You've done really well on a stock, so what are you waiting for? Use common sense principles. If a stock's grown so big in your portfolio, and you're trying to time when to do it, just the fact that you're asking the question means it's probably the moment.
It comes down to portfolio management, rather than a fundamental or technical analysis.
Executes really well. Don't get too many surprises, everyone understands it. Massive upside. Chart shows how it broke out of the little "step" recently. Will benefit immensely in the retail space from the adaption of AI (especially as it relates to knowing their customers' habits).
Choppy stock, pretty volatile. But you can see the nice uptrend on the chart, which helps you digest the highs and lows. After a big downtrend, you had basing, and then a nascent uptrend -- stock's looking through bad news, just be patient. Can still buy today and do well.
