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Signal Opinion Expert
     

2017-11-24

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Market. Going into the year, he underestimated the potential for equities to advance. Was too bearish, so too cautious. The US economy continues to surprise him to the upside. Europe appears to be improving. Financials conditions are still at record easy levels. The Chinese appear to be orchestrating a soft landing. It’s sort of a Goldilocks scenario that he hadn’t thought was going to play out. We are in a weird space, where it feels like you are going to need an endogenous event to knock the stocks off their perch.

Daniel Lloyd

Portfolio Manager, Forge First Asset Management

Price: $0.000
Owned: _N/A

2017-11-24

TOP PICK
Alamos Gold Inc (AGI-T)

Just closed the Richmont acquisition. Views it as a premier mid-cap name in Canada. There is no debt and they have a bunch of cash on the balance sheet. Generates free cash flow. He calculates their all-in sustaining costs is a little below $850 an ounce. Operates in Canada and Mexico. Likes management and the assets. It’s not unreasonable to have some gold exposure, in case things go sideways. Dividend yield of 3%. (Analysts’ price target is $12.00.)

precious metals
Daniel Lloyd

Portfolio Manager, Forge First Asset Management

Price: $0.000
Owned: Yes

2017-11-24

DON'T BUY
Bombardier Inc (B) (BBD.B-T)

The street seems to have gotten more constructive on this. He would worry about the $10 billion debt, which is debt to EBITDA of 9X. A very capital intensive business, which is very troublesome. They seem to have been given a breather by the Airbus deal they did a couple of weeks ago. If they can survive the onslaught that is happening in their train division, things will be fine, but at this price he would not be a buyer.

transportation equip & components
Daniel Lloyd

Portfolio Manager, Forge First Asset Management

Price: $0.000
Owned: No

2017-11-24

COMMENT
Bank of Montreal (BMO-T)

Has an ROE slightly below 14%, which is why it would trade at a lower Price to Book multiple of 1.6X. The bank has bought its way into very competitive markets, mainly in the US and things like commercial banking. It would not be the bank he would buy, but doesn’t see any particular risk in owning it. Doesn’t feel you are going to get a lot of performance above the group.

banks
Daniel Lloyd

Portfolio Manager, Forge First Asset Management

Price: $0.000
Owned: No

2017-11-24

COMMENT
Bellatrix Exploration Ltd. (BXE-T)

One of many natural gas producers that’s been beaten up really badly. High quality assets, with an opportunity to de-lever based on many things. Gas assets in the Deep Basin are quite solid. Produces quite a bit of propane, not a bad gas liquid to be producing at the moment. It appears there is too much debt on the company, so he walked away some time ago.

oil/gas
Daniel Lloyd

Portfolio Manager, Forge First Asset Management

Price: $0.000
Owned: No

2017-11-24

BUY
Cascades Inc (CAS-T)

Had a big miss last quarter, largely on the back of their tissue exposure, so this is a pretty opportune time to be buying. The free cash flow is in the neighbourhood of 15%. If there was an upswing in the tissue space, this would benefit, but is not something he is holding his breath for.

east coast forestry
Daniel Lloyd

Portfolio Manager, Forge First Asset Management

Price: $0.000
Owned: Yes

2017-11-24

PAST TOP PICK
Cascades Inc (CAS-T)

(A Top Pick Sept 15/16. Up 6%. Up 6%.) The 3rd quarter was not good. Owning down here is going to end up looking very good a year from now.

east coast forestry
Daniel Lloyd

Portfolio Manager, Forge First Asset Management

Price: $0.000
Owned: Yes

2017-11-24

DON'T BUY
Canaccord Financial Inc (CF-T)

Banks are doing well, but unfortunately it is at the expense of the independent brokers in Canada. This is certainly cheap, but the Canadian broker space in general is challenged, because you have the banks on the investment side of things and are doing smaller and smaller things.

investment companies/funds
Daniel Lloyd

Portfolio Manager, Forge First Asset Management

Price: $0.000
Owned: No

2017-11-24

PAST TOP PICK
CI Financial Corp (CIX-T)

(A Top Pick Sept 15/16. Down 22%.) *Short* He is still Short. The return represents the worst snapshot possible, but as he has held this for a long time, he is still profitable. Wealth management and mutual fund space in general has been a very tough spot. Feels the stock is still expensive.

investment companies/funds
Daniel Lloyd

Portfolio Manager, Forge First Asset Management

Price: $0.000
Owned: Yes

2017-11-24

DON'T BUY
Crescent Point Energy Corp (CPG-T)

The predominant player in the Canadian Bakken. Their decline rate is about 30%, which is higher than what he would like to see. Trading at 5X cash flow, so it is very, very cheap. Assets are reasonable, and are probably benefiting from strong oil prices and a weaker Cdn$, yet nobody seems to care. There are better names to own.

oil/gas
Daniel Lloyd

Portfolio Manager, Forge First Asset Management

Price: $0.000
Owned: No

2017-11-24

COMMENT
Empire Company (A) (EMP.A-T)

It seems as though the turnaround story is taking hold. The Canadian grocery space is a tough place to be. Pricing is competitive. They have issues with Amazon (AMZN-Q) digging deeper and deeper into the grocery space. Minimum wages are going up across the board. On a relative basis, this looks as good as any.

food stores
Daniel Lloyd

Portfolio Manager, Forge First Asset Management

Price: $0.000
Owned: No

2017-11-24

COMMENT
Enbridge (ENB-T)

Has been Short this for a long time, but recently covered his positions by buying Calls. They have a ton of debt, and for the last several quarters, have been hitting negative free cash flow of about $1 billion or more, while also paying a dividend.

oil/gas pipelines
Daniel Lloyd

Portfolio Manager, Forge First Asset Management

Price: $0.000
Owned: Yes

2017-11-24

COMMENT
Equitable Group (EQB-T)

Canadian Banks? He looks favourably on Canadian banks in general, because he likes the backdrop for energy. This is his favourite, and is actually the smallest of the group. Trades at the lowest valuation of the entire group. Trades at 1X Book compared to the National Bank (NA-T) at 2X. The Canadian bank trade should continue to drift higher.

Financial Services
Daniel Lloyd

Portfolio Manager, Forge First Asset Management

Price: $0.000
Owned: Yes

2017-11-24

COMMENT
Horizon's Medical Marijuana (HMMJ-T)

This is a real industry and there will be winners and losers, but the cumulative market cap associated of these companies feels that they are beyond bubble territory now. Making incremental gains from this point forward is going to be very difficult.

E.T.F.'s
Daniel Lloyd

Portfolio Manager, Forge First Asset Management

Price: $0.000
Owned: Unknown

2017-11-24

COMMENT
KP Tissue Inc (KPT-T)

The tissue space in general is struggling with pricing, probably as a result of over pricing in North America. Having a pure play in this area is not something you would want to do. Expects it will be challenged for the next couple of quarters. Prefers Cascades (CAS-T), which has an offset with container board/cardboard packaging.

Consumer Products
Daniel Lloyd

Portfolio Manager, Forge First Asset Management

Price: $0.000
Owned: No

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