COMMENT
BOC 50 bps rate hike. Perhaps a little higher than people were expecting. Might be a signal that they're done, as we're already seeing many signs of slowing starting to take effect after one of the most aggressive rate hike cycles in memory.
Unknown

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COMMENT
Fed decision next week. They've already done enough, way too much. They might do one or two more. We're already seeing signs of pullback. Money supply has moderated greatly since the massive Covid stimulus. The PMI for both manufacturing and services is now below 50, which represents a contraction. CPI has peaked, and core CPI has probably peaked and is coming off summer highs. He hopes the heavy lifting is already done.
Unknown
COMMENT
Possible recession? The million dollar question as to whether we'll get a hard or soft landing. Personal savings rates are now well below the 3% level, which is below historical averages. Now consumers are burdened with higher prices across the board, and that will affect us as we go through next year. It will be a faster contraction than many people are expecting.
Unknown
HOLD
Hard time executing on plans. Fierce competition in cable and fixed wireless. Pace of broadband subscriber additions much weaker than expected. Peacock streaming way below target. One of the cheapest names in the space at 10x earnings. Free cashflow yield is high at 9%. Buying back stock. Safe holding. Could go into mid-40s in the next year or so.
Cable
DON'T BUY
Concerns about management independence. Stay away. Political uncertainty is way too high.
Oil and Gas (Integrated Oils)
HOLD
Over 75K enterprise customers, 800K small to medium customers globally. Cloud business is approaching 50% of revenue. Historically, growth by acquisition. Down 35%. How will it be affected by macro headwinds, depth of recession? 9x earnings, organic revenue growth expectations 2-3% range. Cheaper than peers. Attractively valued. A comfortable hold.
computer software / processing
DON'T BUY
CM vs. BNS Both have underperformed over the last year. CM is down 16%, BNS down 18%. RY is the only bank up YTD. Any contrarian would say buy. Over the last 5 years, both are at the bottom of the pack. If you like Latin America and the new CEO, pick BNS. If you think CM has cleaned up its US litigation, pick that one. BNS gets his vote. Yield is 6.3%.
banks
WEAK BUY
BNS vs. CM Both have underperformed over the last year. CM is down 16%, BNS down 18%. RY is the only bank up YTD. Any contrarian would say buy. Over the last 5 years, both are at the bottom of the pack. If you like Latin America and the new CEO, pick BNS. If you think CM has cleaned up its US litigation, pick that one. BNS gets his vote. Yield is 6%.
banks
TRADE
Down 38%. New-old CEO brings lots of experience to effect an operational turnaround. Parks business is OK, China is opening up. Real challenge is the media business, costs are increasing, on track to lose 4B this year and 2-3B in 2023. Transitioning ESPN from cable to streaming is also a challenge. High quality, great brands. Somewhat attractive at current levels, but not tons of upside. (Analysts’ price target is $129.00)
entertainment services
DON'T BUY
Cheapish at 11x earnings. Good defensive play for a recession. However, market tries to anticipate these things, so this may not be the one. Under pressure from e-commerce drug delivery. Margins under pressure. Revenue growth anemic, 3-5% range. About 15% upside, but he'd look to more cyclical names as the Fed pivots. (Analysts’ price target is $117.00)
specialty stores
BUY
Dividend play with its 5.5% yield. Most exposure to Asia among peers, a drag the last year. Asia and China are opening up, starting to be a tailwind again. Likes it at current levels.
insurance
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Dec 15/21, Down 6%) Still loves it. Luxury goods behemoth. Fashion leathers division is almost 50% of revenues. Sustainable growth, healthy balance sheet, great cashflow, scale advantages, management track record. Expects 23-24x multiple in a couple of years, with share price 22-25% higher.
clothing
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Dec 15/21, Down 82%) Excellent example why you need a diversified portfolio. Unprofitable, speculative names like this should have a lower weight in your portfolio. Victim of the software apocalypse in 2022. He sold. Still a leader with 50% market share. Growth has slowed from 35% to 25%. On his radar, but not buying in the short term.
0
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Dec 15/21, Down 58%) Tech-ish, but really a leading e-commerce apparel company. Hard hit by Ukraine war, inflation, low European consumer confidence. Volume growth expectations taken down to 18% from 26%. He's reassessing its long-term prospects.
0
DON'T BUY
NSRGY vs. UL Two quality names that have performed well over time, but relatively expensive. He prefers Danone, #1 in both dairy and plant-based, cheaper. Over the last decade, Danone has maintained its #1 position but has lost market share, stock's not up at all, slow to innovate. UL has outperformed Danone in the past decade. Real catalyst is new CEO who's made sweeping changes that will boost top and bottom line growth.
food processing