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Signal Opinion Expert
COMMENT
General Market Comment 

July 20, 2018

Market. The US economy had a good second quarter. In Europa and Chine things are slowing little. One of the main things that the Fed has to face is the yield curve flattening quickly. He believes the bond markets figure things out fairly quickly. The yield curve is saying that there is slower growth and low inflation. This doesn’t mean you can’t do well in stocks. You have to be very careful when interest rates are being raised. Particularly in light of coming out of QE. Earnings have been coming very strong. 

Market. The US economy had a good second quarter. In Europa and Chine things are slowing little. One of the main things that the Fed has to face is the yield curve flattening quickly. He believes the bond markets figure things out fairly quickly. The yield curve is saying that there is slower growth and low inflation. This doesn’t mean you can’t do well in stocks. You have to be very careful when interest rates are being raised. Particularly in light of coming out of QE. Earnings have been coming very strong. 

Unknown
Paul Harris, CF

Portfolio , Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

PAST TOP PICK
Bank of America(BAC-N) 

July 20, 2018

(A Top Pick May 1/17 - Up 26%.) He thinks it is a great story. Continue to bring down costs. Continue to see growth. Trading around book value. Still a lot of upside.

banks

(A Top Pick May 1/17 - Up 26%.) He thinks it is a great story. Continue to bring down costs. Continue to see growth. Trading around book value. Still a lot of upside.

banks
Paul Harris, CF

Portfolio , Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$29.670
Owned Owned
Yes

BUY

They own Brookfield Business Partners LP (BBU.UN-T) which is the private equity arm of the business. They owned for many years but sold it because of the price of the stock. Generates a lot of fees. They have scale. They are global. Very well-run company. It will continue to do well.

management/diversified

They own Brookfield Business Partners LP (BBU.UN-T) which is the private equity arm of the business. They owned for many years but sold it because of the price of the stock. Generates a lot of fees. They have scale. They are global. Very well-run company. It will continue to do well.

management/diversified
Paul Harris, CF

Portfolio , Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$55.720
Owned Owned
No

BUY
Bank of Montreal(BMO-T) 

July 20, 2018

They own Royal Bank (RY-T) and TD (TD-T). They changed the CEO recently. It has done a good job in the last while. The problem with Canadian Banks is the they are not as cheap as the US banks. The good thing is that they continue to grow their dividends and are very well capitalized. Owning here it is fine. Great ROE. 

banks

They own Royal Bank (RY-T) and TD (TD-T). They changed the CEO recently. It has done a good job in the last while. The problem with Canadian Banks is the they are not as cheap as the US banks. The good thing is that they continue to grow their dividends and are very well capitalized. Owning here it is fine. Great ROE. 

banks
Paul Harris, CF

Portfolio , Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$103.660
Owned Owned
No

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick May 1/17 - Up 23%.)  The largest private equity company in the world. Has a great dividend yield. A great story. They are not a corporation therefore not on the S&P 500. With the tax changes there is rumors that they will become a corporation and be part of the index and would get a bump. Outside of that, these guys have been very astute. 

investment companies/funds

(A Top Pick May 1/17 - Up 23%.)  The largest private equity company in the world. Has a great dividend yield. A great story. They are not a corporation therefore not on the S&P 500. With the tax changes there is rumors that they will become a corporation and be part of the index and would get a bump. Outside of that, these guys have been very astute. 

investment companies/funds
Paul Harris, CF

Portfolio , Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$35.640
Owned Owned
Yes

TOP PICK

High barriers to entry. Pricing power. Rational competition. Yield 1.6%. not paying a lot for it. They are solving the customer service problems they had. (Analysts’ price target is $111.28)

Transportation

High barriers to entry. Pricing power. Rational competition. Yield 1.6%. not paying a lot for it. They are solving the customer service problems they had. (Analysts’ price target is $111.28)

Transportation
Paul Harris, CF

Portfolio , Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$114.230
Owned Owned
Yes

BUY

The rails are a very good business to be. High barriers of entry. Good pricing power. Great place to be. The business is much more robust now. Good long-term hold. 

Transportation

The rails are a very good business to be. High barriers of entry. Good pricing power. Great place to be. The business is much more robust now. Good long-term hold. 

Transportation
Paul Harris, CF

Portfolio , Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$254.600
Owned Owned
Yes

PAST TOP PICK
CVS Health Corp(CVS-N) 

July 20, 2018

(A Top Pick May 1/17 - Down 19%) Still like it. A health company that went through a vertical integration buying Aetna. Not expensive on a cash flow basis. Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN-O) purchase of Pill Pack affected the stock. 

specialty stores

(A Top Pick May 1/17 - Down 19%) Still like it. A health company that went through a vertical integration buying Aetna. Not expensive on a cash flow basis. Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN-O) purchase of Pill Pack affected the stock. 

specialty stores
Paul Harris, CF

Portfolio , Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$66.140
Owned Owned
Yes

COMMENT
Walt Disney(DIS-N) 

July 20, 2018

Trades at 14 times earnings and has a nice dividend yield. The big story here is the Fox deal that Comcast has pulled out of. A tough business now with Netflix Inc. (NFLX-Q) trying to be a monopoly. 

entertainment services

Trades at 14 times earnings and has a nice dividend yield. The big story here is the Fox deal that Comcast has pulled out of. A tough business now with Netflix Inc. (NFLX-Q) trying to be a monopoly. 

entertainment services
Paul Harris, CF

Portfolio , Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$112.130
Owned Owned
No

TOP PICK
Dollar Tree(DLTR-Q) 

July 20, 2018

Much cheaper than other dollar stores trading at 16 times earnings. No dividend. They bought Family Dollar and that didn’t go that well and affected the stock price. They continue to do well. Good growth profile. (Analysts’ price target is $102.31)

merchandising/lodging

Much cheaper than other dollar stores trading at 16 times earnings. No dividend. They bought Family Dollar and that didn’t go that well and affected the stock price. They continue to do well. Good growth profile. (Analysts’ price target is $102.31)

merchandising/lodging
Paul Harris, CF

Portfolio , Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$87.490
Owned Owned
Yes

COMMENT

They own Loblaw Cos Ltd (L-T) because they think it has better dynamics. They are going through a rationalization process like the one that Loblaw Cos Ltd (L-T) went through. The Safeway acquisition wasn’t so well executed. Tough business. 

food stores

They own Loblaw Cos Ltd (L-T) because they think it has better dynamics. They are going through a rationalization process like the one that Loblaw Cos Ltd (L-T) went through. The Safeway acquisition wasn’t so well executed. Tough business. 

food stores
Paul Harris, CF

Portfolio , Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$26.610
Owned Owned
No

COMMENT
Enbridge(ENB-T) 

July 20, 2018

The sale of some of their assets to Brookfield makes a lot of sense. Takes away some of the worries that some people had on funding. Some assets sales are going to come in the next while. Spector was a good acquisition for them. They are in a much better situation than they were a few months ago. 

oil/gas pipelines

The sale of some of their assets to Brookfield makes a lot of sense. Takes away some of the worries that some people had on funding. Some assets sales are going to come in the next while. Spector was a good acquisition for them. They are in a much better situation than they were a few months ago. 

oil/gas pipelines
Paul Harris, CF

Portfolio , Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$46.740
Owned Owned
Yes

TOP PICK
Firstservice Corp(FSV-Q) 

July 20, 2018

Great Canadian company. California Closets, College Pro Painters are some of their brands. The other business is the property management business. Stock trades at 28 times earnings but it is a very capital light business with no fixed assets. Generate very high free cash flows. They can grow. Very good exposure to the US.  (Analysts’ price target is $94.75)

other services

Great Canadian company. California Closets, College Pro Painters are some of their brands. The other business is the property management business. Stock trades at 28 times earnings but it is a very capital light business with no fixed assets. Generate very high free cash flows. They can grow. Very good exposure to the US.  (Analysts’ price target is $94.75)

other services
Paul Harris, CF

Portfolio , Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$78.055
Owned Owned
Yes

COMMENT

Blockchain technology is going to change companies in the near future. He can’t comment on the currencies because that is something they don’t invest in. 

Blockchain technology is going to change companies in the near future. He can’t comment on the currencies because that is something they don’t invest in. 

0
Paul Harris, CF

Portfolio , Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$0.880
Owned Owned
No

COMMENT

The fact that interest rates have been very low had affected the insurance industry. Not an expensive stock. Trading at 9.5 times earnings. Headwinds against these businesses is where interest rates go. He would look at other players in the industry with much more diversified businesses and better chances of growing. 

insurance

The fact that interest rates have been very low had affected the insurance industry. Not an expensive stock. Trading at 9.5 times earnings. Headwinds against these businesses is where interest rates go. He would look at other players in the industry with much more diversified businesses and better chances of growing. 

insurance
Paul Harris, CF

Portfolio , Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$51.550
Owned Owned
No

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