Market Outlook TOU-T is planning to spin off some of their infrastructure into a royalty like offering, while retaining 80% of the value. Prior to this the stock was trading at all time lows and the market was giving zero value to the infrastructure they held. The company was trading at 3 times cash flow. The assets they are effectively selling are being valued at 9 times cash flow within the offering. This should remind people how undervalued this space is and there are self-adjusting opportunities that will "fix the funk" we see today. ARX-T has a similar 20% of its company in similar infrastructure. Once we get past the upcoming Federal election things should move forward. What a party says on the campaign trail and what happens in reality can be two very different things. The Liberals appear to support the TMX pipeline project in reality and it will ultimately get built, he says. 11% of our GDP in Canada comes from the energy sector.

Market Outlook TOU-T is planning to spin off some of their infrastructure into a royalty like offering, while retaining 80% of the value. Prior to this the stock was trading at all time lows and the market was giving zero value to the infrastructure they held. The company was trading at 3 times cash flow. The assets they are effectively selling are being valued at 9 times cash flow within the offering. This should remind people how undervalued this space is and there are self-adjusting opportunities that will "fix the funk" we see today. ARX-T has a similar 20% of its company in similar infrastructure. Once we get past the upcoming Federal election things should move forward. What a party says on the campaign trail and what happens in reality can be two very different things. The Liberals appear to support the TMX pipeline project in reality and it will ultimately get built, he says. 11% of our GDP in Canada comes from the energy sector.

Tax loss selling coming? This late year event may occur again. He cautions that taking money out of the space may lock in losses that can not possibly be made up in other sectors. Maybe sell the odd name and re-balance into another, he suggests.

It is very inexpensive right now. He thinks the distribution is sustainable down to about $50-$55 WTI prices. The stock has been weak based on comments from the CEO, who said that banks may less inclined to increase lending to energy, especially natural gas companies. This may cause companies to jettison assets to keep debt down. The CEO is hoping this will provide some cheap assets they can acquire. He would prefer the company buy its own stock, that is greatly discounted to its book value. He owns it personally for the dividend. Yield 8.9%

The market cap has become too small for a large fund manager to follow anymore. He sold around $0.82 and it continued to sell off much lower. That scared him about the liquidity. He would need to see $60 WTI and $15 heavy oil differentials to be able to generate enough free cash flow to excite him back in. On top of that, their JV in Duvernay will require more capital outlay soon. He would look elsewhere.

It recently hit all time lows. He is not terribly fond of the service space right now as spending will likely fall over 10% next year. He was shocked how low the price has recently been in a space that should not see that type of volatility. He thinks the distribution is secure although a weak earnings quarter is coming. It could be a lower beta stock in the space. Yield 5.8%

VII-T vs CR-T? He would stay away from CR-T due to its debt level. VII-T has a good management team, but its slow down in growth highlighted their 50% decline rates in existing assets. This causes too much of their cash flow to still be required for maintenance. He would prefer NVA-T, which trades at a lower multiple of cash flow, has a better balance sheet, and lower decline rates on production.