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Get out the crystal ball, right? :) His team looks at a number of top-down indicators that range from short- to medium- to long-term. They also have an early warning indicator. Right now, all of those indicators are positive.
When they take a snapshot of today and moving forward, they're constructive on the markets. That means that they're fully invested. Those dynamics and indicators can change throughout the year. When they do, that's when the team makes changes to portfolios.
Looking at some of the underlying economic conditions, they actually look quite healthy. For example, the rate of change of inflation continues to moderate downward. That gives central banks more room to lower interest rates, which is positive. We've also seen strong earnings across the board. It started off with just the large caps, and now that's starting to move down-cap. We've seen really strong performance this year from the Russell 2000.
There are a few areas where you always want to pay attention. One is earnings. We're heading into earnings season for Q4. We'll really want to watch and see what guidance looks like.
The other area of caution that he has his eye on is the rotation that seems to be happening between Canada and the US. Money flow has been so strong into the US for so many years, and now it looks as though it's actually flowing the other way. The Canadian markets outperformed last year, and that could happen again.
The other space to focus on is the relationship of the Mag 7 to the other 493 stocks in the S&P. What's happening to capital flows there? A lot of money has moved into the Mag 7, and there have been a lot of specialty products like the single-stock ETFs. What does the rotation mean for those stocks?
He's seeing more sector rotation as well. The discretionary sector continues to do really well -- fascinating, as consumer sentiment is very low.
In the last few months we've also seen a move to industrials, which is really positive for the economy. These include the truckers and the rails, moving freight and goods. This indicates that there's going to be strong economic growth as well.
He has no exposure right now. The sector falls just a bit outside of his rankings right now. His firm looks at earnings acceleration. A lot of companies in the sector have strong future earnings, but they haven't been accelerating in the short term.
As nuclear projects are added (both big reactors and small), that just stokes more demand for uranium. It's tough to mine, and challenging to discover and build mines. There's a time lag there. Investors are always forward-looking, and as demand continues to pick up, but supply doesn't increase, they can see a boost to earnings down the road.
Fantastic return for investors who have been there for the last few years. On the cusp of production, which will generate cashflow. Higher prices for copper and other metals will really fall to the bottom line.
We appear to be in a longer-term cycle where commodities outperform. We've recently seen an acceleration in economic numbers out of China and Asia. It all falls back to electricity, EVs and data centres, and the amount of copper that's required. Takes a long time and a lot of $$ to build mines, so you're in a good position if you're already producing that supply.
Can't see anything specific, but we're seeing a fairly consistent trend in markets where a stock consolidates after making a significant move. That's really positive for the stock longer term, as it builds a base and then goes to the next level.
Business has been doing phenomenally well. Growth in mid-teens to low 20% over last few years, which probably continues for some time. More large companies are farming out fleet management to EFN, and EFN is offering more services (which boosts revenue, much of which is recurring).
He'd say to watch it. If it starts to break down more, then maybe something's changed. But sideways action is often just a case of consolidation.
His fund has a fairly good-sized position in gold, and he's comfortable with that. Looks as though the move in gold can continue. That said, both gold and silver are very overbought on a short-term basis. Prices are getting fairly extreme from, say, the 200-day MA. When that happens, it's not unusual to see some pullback and consolidation.
You have to be prepared for that. If you don't have a position, that's when you want to enter.
Interesting projects -- one in Canada, and one in Turkiye. Ranks fairly well in his process. The challenge is that there are so many gold companies right now that rank really well, many of them rank just a bit higher than this name.
Looks as though the move in gold can continue. That said, gold is very overbought on a short-term basis. When that happens, it's not unusual to see some pullback and consolidation.
Stock's rocketed up in last 7-9 months. It's been a multi-year journey, and the company finally hit that inflection point. Unique commodities trading and settlement platform -- volumes being traded have really started to accelerate. Second part of the business is to digitize settlement and ownership of contracts -- result is an almost-instantaneous settlement between buyer and seller.
Shareholder list is a "Who's Who", such as the "Fidelity" family out of Boston.
(Note the short-ish timeframe.) This week, it received $35M in battery contracts to 3 undisclosed customers.
What do you do with a stock that's gone up like this? His team looks at the rate of change in the trend of earnings. This isn't a cheap stock, but it continues to grow. Fantastic growth, but multiple's very high. As long as the growth continues, the stock will continue on its way. Future for defense is very bright, especially in underwater. Add on a pullback, but don't chase.
(Note the short-ish timeframe.) At the Consumer Electronics Show last week, Amazon's Ring rolled out what appeared to be a similar product. Stock immediately sold off dramatically. Management conference call explained how Ring is hardware, but ZDC is a service. Signing bigger and bigger national contracts, such as with DR Horton.