COMMENT
In the current geopolitical climate, prices detach from what businesses are worth.

In today's environment, you see a lot of the market whipsawing back and forth and different sectors come into favour based on speculation (and Trump's statements). A lot of companies, that aren't involved on a headline basis, grind along and get overlooked.

We do know that Trump won't be president in 2.5 years, and businesses will move on. Perhaps in the midterms Donald will be neutered a bit more and won't be as, let's say, aggressive.

COMMENT
Semiconductors.

He doesn't own any. There's been a huge capital expansion, and that has to do with AI. At first, some of the chipmakers went crazy. Then the likes of CLS, MU and DELL got a lot of orders to build these data centres. 

So what's happening right now is that people are asking will this continue? It'll continue, but at some point the capital expansion in the AI sector will slow down and roll over. There's only so much money. The way the sector is being priced is reminiscent of 1999.

COMMENT
Fed rate decision today.

Any inflation today is really just caused by geopolitical events (oil prices) that can go away at any moment. Core inflation seems to be dissipating a bit in the States. You have a new Fed chair, who came in under Trump, so Tim can't see him raising rates.

If they raise, it's to choke off a hot economy. But the economy's just hot in certain sectors. It's moving along pretty well in the States, but it's not overheating.

DON'T BUY
Reports on August 4, and then first lockup expires on August 6. Shorts are 35% of float.

What the company is doing is great. (He even uses Starlink at his cottage, it's fabulous.) Massively overvalued. Could possibly (but not probably) grow into its valuation over 5 years, and he wouldn't want to take the chance on it. 

It's the price you buy at that really counts. A lot of venture capital funds and private equity put $$ in. Once the lockup period is over, and they've made 10x their money, they'll head for the exit.

HOLD
RY vs. BNS

Premier Canadian bank, and it trades at that kind of valuation. BNS has had some issues. Change in management, change in focus. Cheapest of the banks on a PE basis.

It all depends on how long you're looking to own for. Even if you've made gains, hold on to what you have. He's sticking with RY. 

DON'T BUY
BNS vs. RY

Has had some issues. Change in management, change in focus. Cheapest of the banks on a PE basis. RY is the premier Canadian bank, and it trades at that kind of valuation.

It all depends on how long you're looking to own for. He's sticking with RY.

HOLD

He owns BN, as he wants to own the parent. Brookfield is doing a lot of great things including consolidating. If you're waiting until BN takes over, just stay with the stock.

See his Top Picks.

SELL

Incredible chart over past 3 years (up over 1,000%). Trades fairly expensively at ~35x PE, not a lot of room for error. There is a capital cycle, and that cycle will end.

HOLD
Investor's owned for a long time.

Down 3% today, along with many financials, on interest rate fears. Good company. Dividend's pretty good. If you sell, you probably have a lot of capital gains. Don't sell now. In fact, if you like BMO and you look ahead 3-5 years it's a great time to buy.

HOLD
In a TFSA, up ~60%.

Great company and he's made some $$ in it. That said, 80% of the variability will be the price of oil. Oil is jumping all over (to say the least ;). Thinks oil will stay up here, and CNQ should do fairly well. He's comfortable riding out the cyclicality, but have it as just one part of a diversified portfolio.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 03/26, Down 7%)

(Note the short timeframe.)  Bounced around quite a bit. Some of it is the way the flavour of the market goes; some of it's because, as a relatively new spinoff, it's had only a few reporting periods. Long-term hold for him.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 03/26, Up 31%)

(Note the short timeframe.)  He got the timing right on this one. It now owns President's Choice Financial, which gives it access to so many more new clients.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 03/26, Down 8%)

(Note the short timeframe.)  In the process of buying SES, while at the same time tendering to be taken over. They actually have a lot of tenders. One Bay Street analyst states that tendering shouldn't be under $90 CAD (~$60 USD). Worth quite a bit more than where it's trading.

Expect more news releases about buyer interest for a takeout. Absolutely a long-term hold.

WEAK BUY

Great business, but it also trades like one. Fallen off along with a lot of the other restaurant stocks. For its business, current price is not bad.

Instead, he owns QSR (and that's more on price, not on quality).

BUY

Cheaper valuation than MCD. Smaller than MCD as well, so it has more runway to grow.