Mad Money Host at CNBC
Member since: Sep '20 · 6811 Opinions
In the last few days during all these tariffs, there's been a sudden, aggressive surge in treasury yields. That's probably a key reason why Trump shifted policy on tariffs today. The 10-year yield jumped from 4% last week to 4.3% which is a very big move. That is not supposed to happen when the stock market is stressed. We don't want these rates shooting up. Bad. The spike has been counter-intuitive due to selling treasuries. Keep an eye on this. This quirk should fizzle out though, especially with this 90-day tariff pause.
Garner feels that gold is very overvalued, not this bad since summer 2011 during the debt crisis. But gold plunged 45% from its euphoric high. If that happened now, gold would fall to $1,650/ounce. Historically, gold falls in and out of periods of correlation with other assets, namely stocks. When gold breaks out, then falls below support, this is a bull trap. Recently, we saw a euphoric peak above $3,000. A breakdown below $2,900 opens a trap door downwards. A gold rally has never survived an RSI reading above 70 without a correction. And this has happened 3 times over the past decade. She expects gold to fall.
Is -28% from February's high. The fear is that tariffs will crush their core e-commerce business; most of their goods are made overseas which will get a lot more expensive. But they've become more of a consumer staples business like Walmart, and they have the scale to force the suppliers to eat the tariffs. They also have a sticky Prime business and AWS has enough to growth offset weakness in retail. Trades at 25x PE, half its historical average.
It's become a nightmare, down 17.6% this year, but collect the 4% dividend and stay the course.