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COMMENT
Disconnect between economy and the market.

We're facing this 2-lane highway, or a K-shaped economy. That means we're seeing strong earnings from the corporate side of the balance sheet, but weak employment. 

The AI world inhabits the fast lane with lots of buildout and growth. Then there's the traditional economy that's suffering some job losses, but also the productivity that comes from the AI boom. That's the dual personality that the economy's having these days.

HOLD
Hitting $5T market cap -- does that scream AI bubble?

Not at all. There are too many people calling for a bubble. You don't have a bubble top when so many people are prognosticating that we might have a bubble. That's one sign.

The other sign is that if you look at forward earnings, it may be 26, 27, or maybe 30x forward PE. COST and WMT are trading at 50x. So that's not really a bubble. The darling of 2000, CSCO, was trading at 126x sales. That's a bubble.

He can see a bubble at some point in the future, and it's likely as this name continues skyward. But at the moment, it's fundamentally viable and driven by the demand for compute. The demand is actually there. Their chips are needed for AI, and the only reason we can't run AI at its full capabilities is because we can't get the energy to do so yet.

COMMENT
Will AI boom offset weakness in economy from trade conflict?

If you look at employment across US sectors, the only sector that had an uptick was healthcare. Everything else has been diminished or falling, and the only thing that's making it up is the AI boom. There's less residential and real estate construction, as all the demand is being taken up by the data centres. 

If we didn't have this AI boom, we'd definitely be in a recession.

PARTIAL BUY

Great ETF if you're looking for floating rate, interest-paying instruments. You have to remember that this is below investment grade, and that's how you get that 8-9% income yield. Higher credit risk. "Floating" means it's shorter duration of probably 1-3 years. 

Sort of like high-yielding equity. If we get economic malaise or growth shock, the types of companies that have these loans will have difficulties. Then the spreads get wider and the instruments go down in value. Now, if rates do go up, these tend to also float up.

Good complementary part of a bond portfolio for a nice additional bit of yield, but don't overdo it. Can put $$ in now, as he doesn't see risk of a huge recession.

SELL ON STRENGTH
Happy with 5+% yield, but looking for more capital appreciation.

REITs are difficult. If you have a very low cost base and have to pay tax on selling, figure out how you want to work yourself out of it over a couple of years. Growth will be challenging.

For alternatives with real estate exposure, you might want to look at some of the banks or a bank covered call ETF. Take a look at ZEB.

BUY
For real estate exposure, good yield, and capital appreciation.

Good growth, with a yield of 4%. Canadian banks are exposed to real estate. But also exposed to the resource sector, which is very positive going forward with the AI buildout. Canada has to get over its "carbon embarrassment". 

COMMENT
Natural gas -- high-quality names such as TOU, ARX, PPL or go with an ETF?

Nice thing is that any Canadian ETF will be largely skewed to nat gas. He can't comment on the individual securities, but likes buying them as a basket.

If you're income-inclined, look to ENCC (one of the Past Top Picks for today). Very high yield of 15%, with some ROC. Get the higher income while you wait for individual names to trend higher, when you can start adding those names. Balance the two strategies.

If you're bullish on nat gas, then you're going to be bullish on the Canadian producers. XEG is another big one in Canada. We're going to need energy produced from all sources. In 5-10 years we're going to see higher energy prices, and that's when you'll see the benefit of your investment.

DON'T BUY

Sector will benefit from technology spending. Equal weight exposure of only 3 stocks (T, BCE, and RCI.B), which aren't doing that great. Not very diversified, and that's a risk. This sector just doesn't have the strength you'd like to see.

COMMENT
Rare earths.

Seeing conversations between China and the West about the supply of rare earths in everything from EVs/solar panels/batteries to military purposes. Becomes a critical asset. Rare earths are actually very common. But in processing them, there's a substantial environmental cost with lots of hazardous by-products. So far, China has taken on that task globally.

Now NA and SA are going to have to start refining these metals in order to have some sort of sovereignty over those types of resources. They're important from both an economic and a military standpoint.

This ETF has both US and international names. An alternative that's closer to home is XBM.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

An alternative and proxy to REMX, and trades on the TSX. Gets you more of the base metals such as copper and nickel. Will probably outperform REMX.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 15/24, Up 35%)

We need nuclear to power the demand of AI data centres. It's pervasive. Now we have the CCO-BAM-US government deal to fast-track nuclear reactors. Likes this long term.

If investors want more of a Canadian wrapper, there's HURA. Kind of a 1-stop shop, as this one holds about 12-15% in the underlying commodity.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 15/24, Up 7%)

Classic scenario of where covered writing really helps -- the flat or slightly up/down market. He's bullish on nat gas 3-5 years out, but not a raging bull on it at the moment. So this gives you income to ride out as you wait for the wave; at that time, you can stop the covered writing and own securities outright.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 15/24, Up 8%)

Underperformed the market-cap-weighted index. You're looking for breadth to widen, and for AI to actually get outside the Mag 7 and start to benefit the other companies. See his Top Picks.

BUY

Large-cap US companies, and does covered writing as well as put writing. About 55% of the portfolio is in cash. They use the premiums collected to purchase stocks at the put price. An active strategy, thinks they're pretty good at it. If you're looking for covered writing, it's a good choice.

Exact same as buying a stock, writing a call; exact same as a cash-secured put.

STRONG BUY

Wonderful core holding. MER of 11 bps. Screens not for the highest-dividend payers, but the ones that they know will make their dividend payments and grow them.

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