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We're facing this 2-lane highway, or a K-shaped economy. That means we're seeing strong earnings from the corporate side of the balance sheet, but weak employment.
The AI world inhabits the fast lane with lots of buildout and growth. Then there's the traditional economy that's suffering some job losses, but also the productivity that comes from the AI boom. That's the dual personality that the economy's having these days.
Not at all. There are too many people calling for a bubble. You don't have a bubble top when so many people are prognosticating that we might have a bubble. That's one sign.
The other sign is that if you look at forward earnings, it may be 26, 27, or maybe 30x forward PE. COST and WMT are trading at 50x. So that's not really a bubble. The darling of 2000, CSCO, was trading at 126x sales. That's a bubble.
He can see a bubble at some point in the future, and it's likely as this name continues skyward. But at the moment, it's fundamentally viable and driven by the demand for compute. The demand is actually there. Their chips are needed for AI, and the only reason we can't run AI at its full capabilities is because we can't get the energy to do so yet.
If you look at employment across US sectors, the only sector that had an uptick was healthcare. Everything else has been diminished or falling, and the only thing that's making it up is the AI boom. There's less residential and real estate construction, as all the demand is being taken up by the data centres.
If we didn't have this AI boom, we'd definitely be in a recession.
Great ETF if you're looking for floating rate, interest-paying instruments. You have to remember that this is below investment grade, and that's how you get that 8-9% income yield. Higher credit risk. "Floating" means it's shorter duration of probably 1-3 years.
Sort of like high-yielding equity. If we get economic malaise or growth shock, the types of companies that have these loans will have difficulties. Then the spreads get wider and the instruments go down in value. Now, if rates do go up, these tend to also float up.
Good complementary part of a bond portfolio for a nice additional bit of yield, but don't overdo it. Can put $$ in now, as he doesn't see risk of a huge recession.
REITs are difficult. If you have a very low cost base and have to pay tax on selling, figure out how you want to work yourself out of it over a couple of years. Growth will be challenging.
For alternatives with real estate exposure, you might want to look at some of the banks or a bank covered call ETF. Take a look at ZEB.
Nice thing is that any Canadian ETF will be largely skewed to nat gas. He can't comment on the individual securities, but likes buying them as a basket.
If you're income-inclined, look to ENCC (one of the Past Top Picks for today). Very high yield of 15%, with some ROC. Get the higher income while you wait for individual names to trend higher, when you can start adding those names. Balance the two strategies.
If you're bullish on nat gas, then you're going to be bullish on the Canadian producers. XEG is another big one in Canada. We're going to need energy produced from all sources. In 5-10 years we're going to see higher energy prices, and that's when you'll see the benefit of your investment.
Seeing conversations between China and the West about the supply of rare earths in everything from EVs/solar panels/batteries to military purposes. Becomes a critical asset. Rare earths are actually very common. But in processing them, there's a substantial environmental cost with lots of hazardous by-products. So far, China has taken on that task globally.
Now NA and SA are going to have to start refining these metals in order to have some sort of sovereignty over those types of resources. They're important from both an economic and a military standpoint.
This ETF has both US and international names. An alternative that's closer to home is XBM.
We need nuclear to power the demand of AI data centres. It's pervasive. Now we have the CCO-BAM-US government deal to fast-track nuclear reactors. Likes this long term.
If investors want more of a Canadian wrapper, there's HURA. Kind of a 1-stop shop, as this one holds about 12-15% in the underlying commodity.
Classic scenario of where covered writing really helps -- the flat or slightly up/down market. He's bullish on nat gas 3-5 years out, but not a raging bull on it at the moment. So this gives you income to ride out as you wait for the wave; at that time, you can stop the covered writing and own securities outright.
Large-cap US companies, and does covered writing as well as put writing. About 55% of the portfolio is in cash. They use the premiums collected to purchase stocks at the put price. An active strategy, thinks they're pretty good at it. If you're looking for covered writing, it's a good choice.
Exact same as buying a stock, writing a call; exact same as a cash-secured put.