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Today, Dan Rohinton commented about whether LIN, AMZN, V, ANET, CPX.TO, ORCL, COST, RY.TO, CNQ.TO, HON, GE, AVGO, GOOG, CCO.TO, NVDA, WSP.TO, ATRL.TO, MSFT, WCN, UNH, TD.TO, MDLZ, MTD, UNP, CNR.TO, IFC.TO, FFH.TO, CMS, NEE, EMA.TO, TCEHY, HSBC are stocks to buy or sell.
We've had 3 years of pretty strong markets as a whole. So investors should take a step back and say that earning 15-20% per year is not the normal pace of things. Things tend to be slower than that.
That said, when you have healthy markets they tend to broaden out beyond a handful of stocks. We haven't seen that on the first day of trading today, but there are still 364 more days to go. He expects the AI beneficiaries to see more downstream spending into the more industrial companies and other technology. Being able to adopt those things should uplift more stock prices than just the usual suspects.
What's funny is that there's no such thing as a true "normal" anymore. Back in the day, normal was a good old-fashioned recession. Back in 2008-2009, there was a credit cycle -- we careened from peak to valley and back and forth.
We're likely to see more of the new normal that we've been in for the past 15 years. What you do want is strong, robust markets that have durability. For that, you need to not have every conversation starting and ending with NVDA. Thinks we'll see more of that this year.
There are so many ways to approach this. But the first step is to update your prior set of facts. Just because you've been drinking Coca-Cola for 10 or 50 years, doesn't mean it's the best company right here, right now. You need to reset and draw a blank page. What are the facts before us today? Critical to focus on what the future of a company looks like.
The past is the past. That's important, and the reason it's important is that we're seeing technological evolution at a faster pace than ever before. We're moving faster than the adoption of the internet and the trend of globalization.
Important, because it's the super-app for the Chinese consumer. Has a gaming platform, chat platform, and moving into the AI sphere. Interesting equity, but you need to make a call on China as a whole.
Remember what happened when the finance arm of BABA was supposed to go public: CEO said some things, Chinese government stepped in, Ant Financial was pulled, stock price of BABA collapsed by 70%, CEO disappeared for a few months. During that time, Tencent all of a sudden had to make a large donation to charity -- not something you can forecast. By investing in Tencent, you have to sign up for that.
Otherwise, a great company. Well managed, well structured, and they own the Chinese consumer.
Leverage has historically been a problem, but now more de-levered. Higher-beta Canadian utility. Take a step back and ask if this is the best diversified utility? Probably not. For example, NEE has a similar footprint and is in the US.
Stretched payout ratio has been an issue in the past, though not right now. Yield is 4.3%.
Dividend is important, but not the most important thing. The way you get high dividends is with high payout ratios. That brings with it the risk of a dividend cut. You have to be careful. He'd much rather take a lower, but safer, dividend than a higher yield that's a little bit tight.
Has done so well because it's been on the right side of the interest rate trade, plus underwriting operations have improved. Not a screaming buy today -- easy money has been made over the last 2 years. You're now paying a fair price for a fair asset, still attractive.
He'd much rather buy IFC on the dips.
Reason rails haven't done better in this bull market, is that it's been a very bifurcated bull market (the real gains have come from technology). The industrial economy is still in a modest recession, and everyone's waiting for the goods economy to come back. Still an attractive Canadian equity.
He'd prefer UNP.
Precision scales (microscopic measurements) to an extent we haven't seen with other companies. So returns are extremely high, with ROIC north of 30% (incredible for an industrial). Reasonably consistent growth rates. Not the biggest AI beneficiary. Quality company. Extremely well managed.
Valuation consistently rich. No reason to pay up when there are so many other high-quality growth opportunities. Loves it as a long-term company, but not as a long-term stock purchase today.