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Two things really stick out. The first is the general resilience of the US economy as a whole. It was a pretty good earnings season when you put it all together. AI-related companies seeing the most outsized growth, and the outsized demand pull.
The more negative end of the conversation is that the low-end consumer is seeing some struggles.
So earnings across the board are fine, though indexes are composed so that the big companies play an outsized role. But when you peel away a few onion layers deeper, you see the low- to mid-end consumer having a tougher time (restaurants are seeing less traffic, there's some down-trading, etc.).
It's somewhat of a 2-stage economy, but a lot more positive than expected.
Thinks it will. His team thinks globally, but likes to have a local perspective. It's important to look at the US market in this case.
Some viewers may be surprised to know that the US market is almost half technology at this point. So when it comes to the gap, that gap has been going on for 20 years. He doesn't see a convergence in the future. Instead, he sees further expansion between the haves and the have-nots.
Taking a step further back, the conversations on coal are beginning. But there's a longer-term story here. In the short-medium term when there are bottlenecks, he sees upward pressure on prices. OPEC has been running a low oil price policy for a while now -- they've added more supply to the market as demand has continued to grow. That being said, it's a short- to medium-term conversation.
Look out 10 years, and it's very clear that the role of oil in the mass utilization era that we've seen in the last 100 years is moving more to renewables. He doesn't mean to evangelize the green conversation. From a brass-tacks perspective, both solar and battery deployments are going to rise exponentially.
So the role of oil in the future economy of 20 years from now will be significantly different than it is today. There will always be a role for oil, and when there are shortages people are willing to tap into it. But those bottlenecks only last for so long.
Because energy demand is going to grow, oil will have a role to play, albeit a less important one. Oil's not going away. If Europe and NA don't find uses for it, India and Africa will. Commodities have a way of balancing themselves out globally.
Waste industry is an oligopolistic structure, with many smaller companies that larger ones are slowly gobbling up. That's a long-term runway. Plus, amount of solid waste continues to grow at a decent pace. Pricing outpaces inflation. Deserves its premium. Pressure on recycling volumes hurting margins a bit.
An attractive entry point for a buy, but know that it will always be an expensive stock and that's OK.
Tariff ambiguity is going to be there for the foreseeable future. Tariffs will bring more assembly infrastructure into the US. Decent industrial company. Automakers as a whole are not attractive businesses, but this name is arguably the best of the bunch.
Subaru is actually far cheaper, and tapped into the Toyota supply chain. (Toyota owns 10% of Subaru.)
Tariff ambiguity is going to be there for the foreseeable future. Tariffs will bring more assembly infrastructure into the US. Automakers as a whole are not attractive businesses, but Toyota is arguably the best of the bunch.
Subaru is actually far cheaper than Toyota, and tapped into the Toyota supply chain. (Toyota owns 10% of Subaru.)
The most stable of the telcos in the Canadian market. As immigration growth has slowed, net subscriber growth has come in quite a bit. Don't expect it to return to previous price or valuation. Wishes it wouldn't do all those side projects. FCF inflection coming, as fibre buildout slows.
OK if you need it for the yield, but not an attractive 10-year hold. When push comes to shove, he's not interested.
Across the board, it's important to be careful. In a market that's only gone up for the last decade, it's very easy to think that if you just doubled your equity holdings using borrowed money, then you're twice as smart. Equity investing should generally be unleveraged, even if there are tax strategies available. For peace of mind and a good night's sleep, stay away.
For example, between 2019 and 2022 the most important thing was to stay invested. Margin and leverage does not allow you that optionality.
You don't have to make that choice. Instead of a TD, for example, you could own one of any number of global banks that give you more than what a TD can offer.
In general, the banks have more fully priced in a very benign Canadian economic outcome. They're releasing reserves, trading at 15-20 year highs. That's an interesting place to be when we're seeing home prices decline in major centres. Be very cautious on the banks as a whole.
If he had to choose, it would be lifecos every day of the week.