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COMMENT
Markets.

He's being cautious and defensive. He's been doing this too long to get excited when everybody else thinks the future looks fantastic ;)  You have to take a step back. Valuations are a concern, as is overall bullishness. General public interest in the stock market is very high. In the US, cash levels are very low. 

He gets that Q1 earnings were strong. But he gets concerned about the underpinnings of the economy and perhaps the market, and about profit growth. Growth has been pretty concentrated; the capex spend for the AI buildout has been a huge tailwind. At the same time, deficit spending has continued. In the US, a 6% deficit to GDP is unheard of when you don't have a war or recession.

The stock market itself is producing a wealth effect. People have been running down their savings, and the wealthy are spending some of their excess savings. But that spending isn't across the economy. Consumer sentiment in the US is at an all-time low. He'd rather the economy be driven by employment growth across the board.

As a money manager, he'll always be invested. But when he looks at a stock, he looks for the downside protection.

COMMENT
Being defensive.

It involves a bit of asset allocation, and a bit more cash then he's had in the past. It's mostly about the sector and the weights of the stocks he owns. He's taken $$ out of economically sensitive areas such as consumers, financials (his conviction has lessened a bit), and tech (especially those areas that are less sustainable and where valuations are high).

He's gone more into energy infrastructure, pipelines, and telecom (for the yield).

BUY
ATRL vs. WSP

It's surprised him how badly they've both acted. Again, it seems the fear is that AI is somehow going to displace what they do -- that's not realistic when you look at their core businesses. He's been adding to both names recently.

BUY
ATRL vs. WSP

It's surprised him how badly they've both acted. Again, it seems the fear is that AI is somehow going to displace what they do -- that's not realistic when you look at their core businesses. He's been adding to both names recently.

BUY

He's been adding recently. Recent deal is mostly a share exchange with EQX. Both stocks have come down with the falloff in gold. He likes golds generally, especially the ones that have domestic exposure. Though higher interest rates are headwinds for gold, central banks continue to buy.

PARTIAL SELL
AVGO vs. NVDA

From a value point of view, NVDA sticks out as cheaper (~22x PE) in the space. But he's been reducing his exposure to the sector. The capex isn't slowing down anytime soon. When the music stops on this, you have to be really wary. Cyclical. Very cautious on semis.

PARTIAL SELL
AVGO vs. NVDA

From a value point of view, NVDA sticks out as cheaper (~22x PE) in the space. But he's been reducing his exposure to the sector. The capex isn't slowing down anytime soon. When the music stops on this, you have to be really wary. Cyclical. Very cautious on semis.

HOLD

He expects growth to continue. Lifespan of these satellites is quite short before they start to deteriorate. Lots of ups and downs. Still reasonable valuation. Cheaper, safer way to play the sector than via SpaceX. Good, long-term story.

PARTIAL SELL
Canadian banks.

He's seen this movie before, when everyone started loving the Canadian banks and the valuations became extended. Great capital, safe, proven in market downturns. But 4x forward earnings is high. There's an argument to be made that bank earnings will be less cyclical than in the past -- loans are diversified, more fee-oriented. But we'll still see the downturn, and capital markets will cease to be a tailwind.

He's significantly underweight the banks. More of a seller. Don't buy into these valuations.

HOLD

It's hard to argue with the copper story. Doesn't see the price pulling back at all, Chinese demand is still there, new global production still constrained.

This name is a great play, stock's done well. Geopolitical risks in Peru. Valuation still interesting. He'd lean more toward CS.

BUY

Look at this name for your copper play. A bit out of favour, valuation is good. Good domestic operations.

COMMENT
If the AI buildout stalls, would you worry about copper?

If that were to occur, there's a whole other swath of areas that would be under greater threat of collapse. For example, what's going to happen to a stock like CLS? Ultimately, copper wouldn't be under that much risk.

SELL

The structure is so opaque, he doesn't really know what's there. Interwoven financing between the subsidiary companies. He prefers pure operating companies. BEP.UN, however, is one business he does like.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 24/25, Up 15%)

He was probably feeling defensive last year with these picks, same as he is now. Sports asset value has increased dramatically, and it'll be able to monetize that. Huge positive announced last quarter that capex would be cut dramatically, which will increase FCF.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 24/25, Up 37%)

Sold, as geopolitical risk seemed to be more front and centre. He shifted the proceeds to more North American operators.

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