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Today, John Zechner commented about whether CRM, NOA.TO, U.UN.TO, BBD.B.TO, CJT.TO, MTL.TO, WCP.TO, TA.TO, RY.TO, CVE.TO, MSFT, GOOG, PPL.TO, BTO.TO, RCI.B.TO, BN.TO, CS.TO, HBM.TO, MDA.TO, NVDA, AVGO, OLA.TO, WSP.TO, ATRL.TO are stocks to buy or sell.
He's being cautious and defensive. He's been doing this too long to get excited when everybody else thinks the future looks fantastic ;) You have to take a step back. Valuations are a concern, as is overall bullishness. General public interest in the stock market is very high. In the US, cash levels are very low.
He gets that Q1 earnings were strong. But he gets concerned about the underpinnings of the economy and perhaps the market, and about profit growth. Growth has been pretty concentrated; the capex spend for the AI buildout has been a huge tailwind. At the same time, deficit spending has continued. In the US, a 6% deficit to GDP is unheard of when you don't have a war or recession.
The stock market itself is producing a wealth effect. People have been running down their savings, and the wealthy are spending some of their excess savings. But that spending isn't across the economy. Consumer sentiment in the US is at an all-time low. He'd rather the economy be driven by employment growth across the board.
As a money manager, he'll always be invested. But when he looks at a stock, he looks for the downside protection.
It involves a bit of asset allocation, and a bit more cash then he's had in the past. It's mostly about the sector and the weights of the stocks he owns. He's taken $$ out of economically sensitive areas such as consumers, financials (his conviction has lessened a bit), and tech (especially those areas that are less sustainable and where valuations are high).
He's gone more into energy infrastructure, pipelines, and telecom (for the yield).
He's seen this movie before, when everyone started loving the Canadian banks and the valuations became extended. Great capital, safe, proven in market downturns. But 4x forward earnings is high. There's an argument to be made that bank earnings will be less cyclical than in the past -- loans are diversified, more fee-oriented. But we'll still see the downturn, and capital markets will cease to be a tailwind.
He's significantly underweight the banks. More of a seller. Don't buy into these valuations.