Today, Rebecca Teltscher commented about whether EMA.TO, BEPC, PBH.TO, LIF.TO, ATD.TO, NPI.TO, CHP.UN.TO, H.TO, SIS.TO, ARX.TO, ARE.TO, CVE.TO, PPL.TO, KEY.TO, ENB.TO, CNQ.TO, OTEX.TO, WCP.TO, BCE.TO, T.TO, CCA.TO, CSU.TO are stocks to buy or sell.
It's a great day to be a boring, Canadian, dividend investor ;) Futures were down last night, but now they're up. Defense is bad today with the Democratic win, renewables are good. She read that the win may slow down AI investment with a possible moratorium on data centres, which could be good for AI capex.
At the end of the day, does the capex spend make sense and will it lead to monetization? Yes or no?
Politics and short-term market reactions are great for short-term investors. But at her shop, they're long-term investors and keep their focus on the horizon. Do the long-term fundamentals make sense, yes or no?
Her firm hasn't changed its investment philosophy at all. They continue to be boring dividend investors. The more volatility they see, the better it usually is for their portfolios. Money flows came out of riskier trades in October and into the boring stuff (pipes, utilities).
They don't try to time their investments, but dividend stocks came down in September when rates went up. They added to positions, and now those stocks are performing well again. While they don't make investment decisions based on short-term moves, they take advantage and add when volatility hits.
Her team is defensive on a good day, and even more during times like these. There are signs of a weakening, or K-shaped, economy. Signs of a consumer being more careful. In Canada, job numbers aren't looking so great. The US has a deficit problem. Geopolitical risks. Plus, markets are very close to all-time highs.
Lots of potential for risk right now.
While they wait for more clarity in the markets, she and her team are happy to keep their heads down, not participate in all the chaos, and collect dividend income. They have cash on the side ready to deploy if there's a correction.
When ARX was bought out, they canvassed options and chose TOU. But WCP would probably have been their next choice.
More exposure to light oil, which has a higher decline rate than some oil producers. Great management, good operators. Strong assets. Good job with enhanced water recovery. Run up a lot. For the next 5-10 years, fundamentals and dividend look good.
That's exactly what happened in September. Her firm has a higher weighting to these sectors, so the underperformance actually made her happy because they could add to positions at better valuations.
Some came off more than others. TRP and ENB were down 18-20%. But PPL, which is a growthier pipeline, came off less (only 12-13%); same with ALA. FTS barely came off, while EMA came down 16%.
Higher interest rates usually aren't a long-term hit to earnings, as they can quickly apply for a rate reset from the regulator.
One of her favourite oil companies. It's run up with oil, so it's been hard to add. Question is: How long will oil stay up for? Profitable, whether oil is $100 or $50. One of the strongest management teams she's ever seen. Phenomenal operators, premium assets.
Still expensive, but you could start adding below $70.