Rebecca Teltscher

Yes, September is a volatile month historically. But she's really looking at the disconnect between the market and the economy, which just keeps getting bigger and bigger.

We're in a policy-driven world right now, so everything will fall on what the Fed's going to do in a few weeks. The US jobs report is coming out this Friday, and she thinks people want to see bad job numbers because that will guarantee a Fed rate cut in September.

But she's thinking that if the economy's showing signs of weakness, a bad jobs report would mean there are problems in the economy. She believes that Canada is already in a recession.

Time to be cautious. Doesn't mean be out of the market, just be careful about which areas you focus on.

Take the S&P 500. You think you're getting a basket of 500 stocks. While that's technically accurate, it's actually very skewed to technology stocks. Just the Mag 7 stocks alone are worth over 30% of the S&P. The TSX had a 5% move last month alone, but that's because 11% of the TSX is just gold stocks. By owning the entire benchmark, it's actually a lot more concentration risk.

Her firm focuses on companies that are more boring, more conservative, and more mature in their life cycle. Their largest weightings are utilities, pipelines, and telcos. Likes banks but, given this economy, now is not the right time to be buying them. Likes critical infrastructure that can't easily be replaced, and won't necessarily change depending on where we are in the market cycle. For example, people aren't going to stop using electricity for their fridges just because we're in a recession; on the other hand, though, general electricity demand is increasing as technology expands.

Light oil with a high decline rate (versus other types of oil). Good job with enhanced oil recovery to try to mitigate that decline rate. Good management team. Company expects $200M in synergies from the merger, which should be accretive over time. Dividend safe at these levels. Hold, but don't add at these prices.

A name to buy right now would be CNQ.

Definitely don't sell. If you have extra funds, buy more. Happy to buy around low $40s. Premium assets, lower decline rate. Nice mix of oil and gas. Premium management team, one of the best in the world. FCF returned to shareholders via buybacks, consistent dividend increases. Another one to own forever. Has never cut the dividend, now 5.5%.

Likes it. Up 21% YTD. They do what they say they're going to do. Nova Scotia now coming out of its rate freeze, should see earnings increase in 2026. Asset sales mean that debt level is OK. Dividend can still be increased, though at lower levels than historically. Has trouble trimming a name that's been really good to her, especially as she's a long-term investor.

Utilities is her favourite sector. If economy rolls over, $$ will come out of the high-torquey sectors and move to defensive.

One of the strongest management teams in that retail space. About to capitalize on a large capacity buildout in US, now can handle extra orders coming in. COST is a big client. Sees stock going higher. RY recently upgraded it to "Buy".

Wouldn't buy here. Not a stock that would make her watchlist, too risky. Problem is it's linked to AI, with over 50% of revenue coming from hyperscalers. Overvalued. No dividend.

Likes the underlying businesses. Wait for a better entry point. Aviation segment might not do well in a weak economy. Many segments operate in the North as monopolies. CEO is fantastic, but what happens when he retires? Dividend still growing. She'd want to see it at least in $60s before looking at it.

Doesn't have a favourite right now. So many different sub-sectors. Not a fan of retail REITs because she's nervous about consumer and economy right now. 

She does own SIS, which plays on the demographic of aging at home.

Really likes AP.UN and its management, but the fundamentals are not looking so great. Vacancy numbers are worrisome. Not sure if they'll be able to meet lofty expectations for rest of this year. Hasn't cut dividend, while others have. Likes jurisdictions it operates in, nice core asset historical buildings. One to look at once we get to trough occupancies and see what the rental rates are.

Most favourable sector is probably seniors housing like CSH.UN. That sector has risks, such as liability issues during pandemic. Occupancy pretty close to objective of 95%. Demographics are in its favour, people will move there because they need to not because they want to. This would be the one she'd pick to consider.

She does own SIS, which plays on the demographic of aging at home.

Really likes AP.UN and its management, but the fundamentals are not looking so great. Vacancy numbers are worrisome. Not sure if they'll be able to meet lofty expectations for rest of this year. Hasn't cut dividend, while others have. Likes jurisdictions it operate in, nice core asset historical buildings. 

One to look at once we get to trough occupancies and see what the rental rates are.

Most favourable sector among the REITs is probably seniors housing like CSH.UN. That sector has risks, such as liability issues during pandemic. Occupancy pretty close to objective of 95%. Demographics are in its favour, people will move there because they need to not because they want to. This would be the one she'd pick to consider.

Owns a smaller position, as it tends to be high-torque. Smaller cap and cyclical, so we've seen volatility in the name. Company says it won't take on any more large, fixed-price contracts. Record backlog, much of it public sector (more stable than private). Fingers in almost every nuclear project in Canada. Likes its domestic exposure, where she can understand Canadian government and policies.

Yield of almost 4%, which wasn't cut even when things looked really bad during 2022.

A larger position, as it's more stable. Half is gas infrastructure, and half is utilities. Working on a propane export facility off coast of BC. Good management. Dividend safe and increasing. Own forever.