Rebecca Teltscher

We've seen a big rally from the bottoms of liberation day in early April, almost 20% in the S&P. On the S&P, we're now in positive territory YTD. The TSX is up 3% YTD.

She gets that the worst-case scenario is no longer priced into the market with the 90-day pause on tariffs. But there's still a lot more to unfold. When she looks at the economy, the data coming out is not looking great. It's mixed, at best. Then there are other things like increasing geopolitical risk. 

In Canada, consumer confidence is coming down. Housing starts are the lowest they've been since 2009. Job numbers are not great, unemployment is starting to tick up, and that's without the impact of tariffs yet. Highly indebted consumer. Mortgage prices will come up as they get rolled over.

In the US, consumer confidence has really plummeted since Trump was elected. Retail numbers were OK, but the number released this morning reflects a lot of pre-tariff surge in buying. Manufacturing is in contraction territory.

The economy is murky at best. We're already seeing softening GDP numbers in both Canada and the US. She wouldn't be surprised if Canada's already in a recession or at the start of one, and we're just waiting for those data prints to come out. In the US employment's still strong, but the main hiring has been done by government; with DOGE, not sure if government jobs are going to come to the rescue this time.

Not much to be excited about with respect to the overall market. But there are particular areas of the market she's excited about, which are more conservative and stable. That's where she's putting her focus.

On the overall market optimism, she and her team are a bit skeptical.

Yield is now 5.8%, so still a decent yield. Won't be any dividend growth. Now more transparency on payout ratio, and partnership with PSP on Ziply eases financial burden. Could be a valuation gap up. A buy today is not for a short-term pop in the stock, it would have to be a long-term buy and hold.

All telcos are facing slowing immigration, competitive pressures, regulatory pressure. Over the very long term will be OK, as they supply critical infrastructure. If recession, nice place to be for stability and defensiveness.

Traditionally trades at a discount. Has no problem with its logistics or acoustics businesses. Great long term. Good, solid dividend yield. If you own it keep holding, especially in a market like this. She prefers FTS and EMA, mainly because she likes their geographic diversification.

She likes this name, mainly because of its geographic diversification. Also has more US utilities than peers, growing just a little bit faster.

Reasonable valuation. Doing exactly what they said they would. Lots of capex projects, small ones and larger ones, well diversified. Today announced asset sale, so proceeds can fund growth instead of having to issue equity. Yield is almost 6%, with growth.

Possible risk of oil prices coming down in next 6-12 months. Important to hold a stock that can withstand commodity price volatility, good balance sheet, not too much debt, strong assets. Its lighter oil is subject to higher decline rates, about 26%. Merger will see lots of synergies. Digesting debt. Hesitant to own for short term.

See her Top Picks.

Something she's looking at now. Higher yield, lower valuation. Has come up significantly in the past week or two with the market run. If it went back down to $125, she'd definitely be interested. Stable, not easily replicable. Consistent cashflow that supports the dividend. Still the cheapest way to transport goods. Prefers it to CP.

Prefers CNR on valuation. Lots of embedded synergies after the KSU acquisition, and if they don't meet targets the high valuation makes it vulnerable (especially in this market).

Doesn't own any right now. She's not confident on consumer spending and the retail space. The rental space would be interesting, but none of the particular companies capture her attention yet. Industrials already had their day during the pandemic -- cheap space, easy to replicate, and prices will come down.

Hard not to own them, but she is underweight the sector. There's going to be some increase to credit loss provisions. Set up well for a recession in Canada, but she'll be keeping her eye on any particular weaknesses this quarter.

Working to transition to a pure-play utility, still holding onto small (3%) renewable hydro assets. New CEO and management team doing good job so far. Most utilities are in the US, with staggered and ongoing rate reset price increases. Likes it.

Earnings good, guidance disappointed. But she takes a long-term view. One of the few stocks she owns with no dividend. Checked the boxes of recurring revenues, stable business. Still a pilot shortage in NA, geopolitical risks favour the defense segment.

Largest distribution utility is in Florida, where population growth has soared since pandemic. Regulator in Florida is easy to deal with. Diversified. Benefits from a risk-off mentality in the market.