
Portfolio Manager at Newhaven Asset Management
Member since: Feb '24 · 336 Opinions
Mostly positive. Her focus isn't really in the AI-tech space, so she can't comment on some of the negative earnings today. When you're trading at really high valuations, you're priced to perfection. Even a small revision to estimates, or a small miss, results in a large stock price move. Energy stocks have been pretty good with oil prices higher.
In general, pretty volatile. Yesterday, all the pipelines that she loves and cherishes were down. Why? Was it because SHOP was up 20%? Because oil prices were up? So hard to tell in this type of market what's causing the moves.
The best thing for her sanity and client portfolios is to look through the short-term noise and focus on the long term.
Preservation of capital is the most important thing for her clients. This actually makes it very difficult to invest in this type of environment, since market valuations are elevated. Even the boring stuff that her firm owns might be trading at 20-year highs.
The other thing to focus on is dividend income. If you're collecting 4-5% in the form of dividends, then regardless if the market is up, down or sideways, you're still getting income year in and year out. Stock price only matters when you're looking to sell. Her firm wants to own names for 5, 10, 20 years. Look through short-term volatility, and use weakness as a buying opportunity.
For new clients, they're sitting on too much cash really. With valuations elevated, it's hard to find decent places to invest. For example, it's been hard to buy Canadian banks this year.
For clients already invested, dividends that aren't withdrawn have been put into money market funds. This provides dry powder to deploy if there's a correction.
Pretty impressive. Handles the ticker you see at the bottom of your screen, sports cameras. Legacy business is audio/video infrastructure. Half software, half hardware. Nice juicy yield of 5%. Gives 90% of FCF back to shareholders. Military assistance for surveillance for drones. Something to look into.
Not very liquid, as management owns about 2/3 of the float. But a good, stable business.
Earnings weren't even that bad. 2027 growth is still intact. Lowered revenue and EBITDA guidance for 2026. Consumer staple that's done an extremely good job expanding capacity in US. Commodity prices up means margin compression. Inflection point in US growth has happened.
A no-brainer Buy today.
With the SHEL takeover of ARX, international players are starting to look at Canada. We have a low-risk jurisdiction and access to Asia. Because SHEL has a stake in LNG Canada, we're going to see expansion there.
Right now, we have too much production and not enough places to put it. But we're working on it.
She's stronger on gas than oil at the moment because of power demand. We're going to need baseload energy (data centres and reindustrialization back to NA), and though renewables will have a role, the rest will have to come from natural gas or nuclear.
Hard to look at any of the banks trading at 20-year-high valuations when we have a weakening economy. Something has to give, and she thinks it'll come off the bank stocks. Capital markets and wealth management have been the real drivers. People look at banks as bellwethers for the economy; if the banks are doing well, the economy must be doing well. She doesn't feel that way.
At the end of the day, they'll do well because of their oligopoly position. Underlying businesses are OK. She's just not comfortable buying at these valuations. If we get a correction to our economy, the banks will be the first ones hit.