Portfolio Manager at Newhaven Asset Management
Member since: Feb '24 · 169 Opinions
Her firm is being a bit more careful, positioning conservatively. This past quarter has seen exceptional market growth. But when it comes to the underlying economic data, that's been mixed or weak. When it comes to the disconnect between the market and the economy, it seems to have widened. Then you add in more uncertainty with geopolitical tensions and tariffs.
There are a lot of things to look out for, yet the market keeps making record highs. They see that, and they're a little bit concerned.
There are a lot of reasons why, and she doesn't have the one answer. Perhaps bad economic news makes investors think there's going to be a rate cut. After today's US job numbers, a rate cut likely won't happen this summer. We haven't really had a real recession since 2008-2009. Investors have gotten used to the idea that whenever there's any economic weakness, either central banks or governments will swoop in to save the day.
But with debt levels continuing to rise, there's a limit to how much governments can spend to support the economy. There are signs that the economy is slowing, so it's better to be cautious. Given risks in the market and current valuations, unlikely that markets will continue to post record highs in the second half of this year.
Young investors don't care as much about dividend stocks, but they're really important. It's like collecting rent, instead of making money only once you sell a stock. The earlier they start, the more they reap the benefit of the compounding effect that takes place after 10, 20, 30 years of investing. Compounding is such a powerful tool.
It's hard to pick just one, as she likes a diversified portfolio. This name would be her first choice, based on today's valuation. Premium assets, low decline rate. Largest oil & gas company in Canada. Phenomenal job giving money back to shareholders via dividends and buybacks. Starting 2026, 100% of free cashflow will be returned to shareholders.
Young investors don't care as much about dividend stocks, but they're really important. It's like collecting rent, instead of making money only once you sell a stock. The earlier they start, the more they reap the benefit of the compounding effect that takes place after 10, 20, 30 years of investing. Compounding is such a powerful tool.
It's hard to pick just one, as she likes a diversified portfolio. This name would be her second choice, after CNQ, because it's a little expensive right now. Stable utility growing 5-7% a year. Try to get it at a better price. Longest track record in Canada of dividend increases. Diversified jurisdictions. Increase in power demand is growing exponentially. Gives you exposure to AI but in a safer way, by owning the companies that produce the power.
Really likes the name, good business. Making all-time highs, expensive here. Doing all the right things, growing its dividend. Often the only airline in a Northern Canada region, so it's a monopoly. Owner/CEO is the real driving force, and she wants more clarity on the continuity plan. Yield is 4.2%.
There's a lot happening with this one. The deal isn't actually that amazing, as you'd expect a higher takeout price for a company this size with those assets. Stock's pricing in a chance that the deal does not go through, because a proxy battle is still ongoing. The story's not over.
Underperformed this year relative to peers. In transition, and that will take a while to sort things out. Slowly selling off international assets. Trying to increase presence in US, a bit late to the game. Path forward is somewhat uncertain. Highest yield, so you'll be fine if you have a long horizon.
She's actually a bit nervous on all the banks.
Very hesitant. Recent recovery has been sharp and quick, almost as though it's factoring in abolition of tariffs completely. We need more clarity on tariffs. Auto industry is highly cyclical and depends on health of the economy, and we're seeing signs of weakening.
If you own it, don't need the cash, and have a 5-10 year time horizon, you should be fine. But there could be further weakness from here.
Still her favourite pipeline, especially at these levels. Best growth trajectory, and in best strategic position to handle growth in nat gas shipping with LNG Canada. Alliance Pipeline pricing has been an overhang. This is the one to own based on dividend growth, yield, and capex plan.
This pick was before the sale of MLSE to Rogers and before the acquisition of Ziply. The yield was 10%, over the worst of fibre capex, and lower interest rates would help. She figured it had so many assets, that any of them could be sold to fix the balance sheet and alleviate investor concerns.
She still owns it, buying more around $30. Eventually, asset sales can help. In a recession, defensive plays are a positive trend for telcos.
The banks are looking quite expensive, especially as we're probably entering a period of economic weakness. Good company, not a good stock at the moment. Past quarter has seen a pretty stellar move. Trades ~14x PE. Yield is 4.3%.
Definitely take some profit, and stick it into something more defensive like infrastructure, pipelines, utilities. Things that will outperform in a market and economic downturn.