Rebecca Teltscher
Portfolio Manager at Newhaven Asset Management
Member since: Feb '24 · 220 Opinions
Rating Card
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Rating
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| 0 | 4 8.33% | 13 27.08% | 18 37.50% | 11 22.92% | 2 4.17% | ||
| 1 Month | 0 | 0 0.00% | 6 25.00% | 13 54.17% | 5 20.83% | 0 0.00% | |
| 6 Months | 0 | 3 20.00% | 4 26.67% | 2 13.33% | 5 33.33% | 1 6.67% | |
| 12 Months | 0 | 1 11.11% | 3 33.33% | 3 33.33% | 1 11.11% | 1 11.11% |
Stock Opinions by Rebecca Teltscher
Yes. She doesn't even know what to say. Thinks this might be one of the easiest shows, as every answer will be along the lines of "Good company, but too expensive." Market's in mania territory, more so in the US than in Canada. It's like a runaway train and nothing can stop it.
Doesn't know what's going to make the market turn, but these valuations are unsustainable. Her firm is being cautious right now, only deploying $$ where they see long-term value rather than short-term trends.
Her firm is a conservative shop on a good day, let alone on a day when valuations are this high. You have to balance this with collecting dividends, and they're all about dividend investing. If you're not invested, then you're not collecting that dividend.
They try not to trade, buy low sell high, or time the market. It's all about getting invested, collecting dividends, and compounding them over time.
That said, for new $$ coming into the firm, they're having a hard time deploying it right now.
Canadian valuations are trading at half of what they are in the US, so there's relative value in Canada. In particular, likes infrastructure stocks -- things that are going to support the backbone of the Canadian economy. Things like utilities, pipelines, telcos, energy infrastructure.
Along with collecting dividends, one of their main theses is that increasing power demand is a secular trend. It will continue to increase over the next 20, 30, 40 years. Despite where we are in the economy right now (going into economic weakness and possible recession), power demand is not only defensive but also a growth story that could supersede any short-term economic weakness.
No secret that for months the economic data has been trending negative. GDP numbers in the US were positive last week, but it's backward-looking data. Job numbers have been coming in weak. And with the US government shutdown, we won't be getting as much economic data.
The economy was saved in the first 2 quarters because a lot of demand and buying were pulled forward. We're now starting to see the impact of tariffs, and inflation risk is increasing.
But the market is not wavering, just continues to go higher and higher.
Sees inflation as more of a risk in the US than in Canada. If we are headed into a recession, then Canada is a bit more ahead than the US on that front. Our GDP numbers are lower, and our employment numbers have been worse than the US for longer. Consumers in Canada are more strapped, with spending that's been slower for longer.
Canada's mortgage rules are different, so we have our 5-year resets. Canadians are going to be paying more for mortgages that were locked in at historically low pandemic rates. In the US that's not an issue. US consumer is stronger for now.
Safety incidents. New management team has improved operations, and stock's done well. Production is aging, so they're going to have to secure new. Older assets. Yield is ~4%.
Though she doesn't trade, she's going to recommend a switch. Not on short-term valuation metrics, but for a longer-term energy play. And that's CNQ.
Good company, but hard to buy right now. The only gold producer she owns. Yield is less than 1%, which no longer gives you much of a buffer; you're really banking on the stock price maintaining these levels. Stock more than doubled last year, up 72% this year. 90% of assets in really good jurisdictions.
Needs to see some steam come off the valuation before putting new $$ in.
Franchise model holds it back from implementing company-wide initiatives such as a transactional website as quickly as others in the space. Yield is 4.3%, not at risk. Still, Canada may be heading into a recession or economic weakness. Canadian consumer spending majority of income on necessities, leaving not much left over for the discretionary items that are CTC's bread and butter.
Stock was off last year. Up this year, but not in line with the market. Hold off. Likes the company, but she'd be nervous to buy any discretionary name right now.
Attracted by the dividend yield, over 10% when she looked at it a year ago. Likes the downtown locations of its unique assets. Not convinced the worst is over for office space. Back-to-the-office momentum doesn't really encompass Allied's tenants.
Expectations for the last quarter are really high; more than likely they won't be met, guidance will come down, and so will the stock.
Likes the dividend of just below 8%. With that kind of yield, can't expect stock price to do that much. Up 6% this year, not as much as the market. Considering price of oil and that yield, she's OK with it. Breakeven oil price is ~$50, and they're transparent about this. Has cut dividend in past, but first to raise again when oil price recovers.
Likes management. Royalty, so not spending $$ on drilling and exploration. Will probably see more acquisitions in US.
Very strong management. Largest natural gas producer, along with CNQ. Has to do M&A to fund its growth plan. Nat gas prices have suffered. LNG projects still ramping up. There's a gas name she prefers a bit more, and it already has a lot of reserves in inventory.
If you already own it, hold. For new $$, see her Top Picks.
This market will make anyone look good :) One of the largest pipelines in NA, focused on natural gas. Strong future, as access to overseas markets will allow those markets to reduce reliance on coal, for example. We still need to source power when the wind stops blowing and the sun goes down.
Up ~11% YTD. She recommended this defensive play when she anticipated softness in the stock market. (If she liked it a year ago on concerns of economic weakness, she definitely likes it now ;) About to start its copper decommissioning. Capex should come off in next few quarters. Yield is 7.6%.
