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Portfolio Manager at Newhaven Asset Management
Member since: Feb '24 · 287 Opinions
It's outperformed BCE and Telus which she owns for the dividend (Telus has the most turnaround potential). The street expects Rogers to spin off their sports division. You can't go wrong with any telcos, which aren't getting any love now. They are undercutting each other are prices. She likes it for defence and yields, though is not high-growth
She doesn't like gold now. She bought this is in the $60-70s. Its mines are in low-risk areas, like Canada and the US. Gold used to be a safe haven, but this has recently reversed with gold now trading as a risk-on stock. The space got crowded and became speculative. Tread carefully. She is not adding her holding. AEM is the best gold stock,.
She owned it before last year's dividend cut which was unnecessary, a long-term decision to fix a short-term problem (an off-shore wind project in Taiwan). She didn't like what they said on investor day. They have risky assets in Spain and Colombia. They have to monetize some of their long-term contracts at some point. Lots of issues. The new CEO is doing the best she can (the problems were under the old CEO). She held onto it past $20 because it's now at $24. They just reported a good quarter. Their Taiwan and Poland projects are on schedule, which is good. New managers need to prove themselves. Not sure if she will hold onto this long-term. Wait and see.
She's been wrong about the Canadian banks the past year, that they're expensive. They were up 30% last year + 20% this year. These stocks are priced for perfection and trading well above historical averages in PE. Wait. Last year, they released provisions for loan losses into earnings, which was a temporary boost. Their only growth aspect this year is how many branches a bank can close, which is a weak growth driver. She hasn't bought any banks this year.
She's been wrong about the Canadian banks the past year, that they're expensive. They were up 30% last year + 20% this year. These stocks are priced for perfection and trading well above historical averages in PE. Wait. Last year, they released provisions for loan losses into earnings, which was a temporary boost. Their only growth aspect this year is how many branches a bank can close, which is a weak growth driver. She hasn't bought any banks this year.
She doesn't own REITs. Valuations were too high, and there was better growth elsewhere, like pipelines. REITs do pay dividends and REI is not bad. It's flat over 5 years, but high occupancy rates, a 5% dividend and 60% payout ratio, and a high renewal rates by tenants. Will do more research first, though. REITs are a rare place to pay 5% dividends with little risk.
She will own this for the next 30 years. Very bullish. She likes CNQ at $60 oil, so $100 oil today is a bonus. Management is discipline, their Oil Sands are long-life with low decline, and have a strong dividend records. They make money even at low $50 oil. She added more shares recently.
All rails are suffering a recession, but is it over? Rails are cyclical to the Canadian economy. She feels were getting closer to a recession. She prefers CN to CP because of PE and dividend. CP's valuation reflects the Kansas City merger and its synergies, so higher. She owns no rails. She would buy CN on a dip.