Portfolio Manager at ValueTrend Wealth Management
Member since: May '09 · 2394 Opinions
In an election year October can be more volatile than usual and there is potential volatility in the next few weeks. Retail investors are bullish and that historically is a bearish signal. The VIX is trending up and the market is trending up at the same time and that's unusual. Institutional investors are reducing their exposure to stocks so the the retail and institutional groups are diverging. We are just tipping into bullish sentiment but if it goes really deep then that is a reliable signal.
There is a long breakout on the one year chart. It is a little ahead of itself and may pull back which would be a buying opportunity.
It has broken its support resistance at $20 and the previous resistance at $30. If it forms a base then that might be a time to buy.
Its chart shows a rounded bottom. It has had a move up out of the base and then a pullback to test the hammer so it looks ok.
There is an uptrend in place along with tests of the trendline. You could buy at the beginning of up bounces but don't buy in the troughs.
It has a choppy chart with two lower highs which is bad. You don't want the low to be broken. He doesn't know - it could be a buy if it finds support at the last low, maybe $450.
The caller was wondering if we are at a market top and should we use daily or weekly charts to determine if there will be a market top reversal. This involves macro analysis which he a does a lot of. He uses weekly charts and the 200 day moving average. Look for higher highs and higher lows in the weekly charts. As soon as the last low is taken out and there is a break of the 200 day moving average it is a strong indicator that the former trend will turn into a base or a downturn.
He legs into stocks, not dives into them. It has formed a little base around the trend line and then started up. He will start buying in three legs of 2% as it proves itself.
It is trending the right way and has moved hard on the upside. He doesn't know the momentum indicators but it is off the trend line and then may pull back to the trend line for a buy so wait.
It is in a sideways, tradable pattern and tried to break out but failed. It is stuck in a range so trade on the pullback.
He bought it a year ago. It started a base and then broke down so he sold it two weeks ago.
It has been in very strong uptrend which is a little overdone/overbought. It is due for a pullback but he likes the trend.
It is near its support zone so he has it as a potential trade in their aggressive account. He has a tight stop at $91.75 so if it goes below that for three or more days then he will sell at a 2 or 3% loss. The idea is that in the long term bonds will go up.
It is moving in a range. It is close enough to the bottom of the range and he is tight with discipline. If it breaks its support level and stays there for a number of days, then he will sell.
It is an uptrend but he recently sold two weeks ago because it was overbought and there may be a pullback. It is fine for the longer term investor.