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Keith Richards
Portfolio Manager at ValueTrend Wealth Management
Member since: May '09 · 2427 Opinions
Rating Card
| All | 
Rating
| 
Big Win
| 
Win
| 
Neutral
| 
Loss
| 
Big Loss
|  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.71 | 250 31.13% | 186 23.16% | 150 18.68% | 149 18.56% | 68 8.47% | ||
| 1 Month | 4.65 | 27 14.29% | 44 23.28% | 72 38.10% | 44 23.28% | 2 1.06% | |
| 6 Months | 4.67 | 38 21.59% | 48 27.27% | 36 20.45% | 41 23.30% | 13 7.39% | |
| 12 Months | 4.7 | 47 28.14% | 45 26.95% | 21 12.57% | 38 22.75% | 16 9.58% | |
| 2 Years | 4.76 | 63 43.45% | 35 24.14% | 11 7.59% | 17 11.72% | 19 13.10% | |
| 5 Years | 4.75 | 75 59.52% | 14 11.11% | 10 7.94% | 9 7.14% | 18 14.29% |
Stock Opinions by Keith Richards
Sometimes when he talks to fundamental analysts, they say that things are overvalued. Reality is that you can't fight the tape. Right now, the market's making higher highs and higher lows, new highs, and above the 200-day moving average.
Even if you look at the internals, market breadth is no longer all about tech. The momentum trades are not overly overbought. Sometimes even market sentiment can send out a signal when people get too boisterous, but it's not.
It's really kind of a Goldilocks time from a technical perspective. The only thing wrong is valuations, but don't argue with the tape.
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He uses weekly charts to do his macro analysis. Standard stuff like MACD and RSI. Sentiment indicators like the put/call ratio, VIX. Put/call, for example, is roughly in the middle of its range. Nothing is screaming at him that says we should be worried too much from a technical standpoint.
A fundamental person would get you all scared, but when the market's going up you have to be invested.
Definitely important, but not the only factor. Right now, seasonality is positive for the next 6 months. December, in particular, can be very good.
Support level has definitely been broken. Lower lows, lower highs. All that is negative technically. Looking at a 3-year chart, now testing support from 2023. If that can hold, it's not so bad a picture.
He likes a 3-year chart, as it gives you a more complete picture of the story. Your view can change when you take a longer perspective than just 1 year.
Be aware that when you have a stock that hasn't been listed for that long, you don't have a lot of data to work with. Technical analysis is all about crowd behaviour -- trends, volume, a picture of how investors feel about a stock.
Since the summer, this one broke out of a saucer-like formation and now it's heading up. So far, looks good. But because it's such a "young" stock as far as being listed, hard to tell if any resistance or stopping points ahead.
Now in an uptrend. Tends to make a new high, pull back to the trendline, and repeat. Previous rallies each lasted a few months. This rally is just getting started, and he'd think you're going to get a little more upside before you get the pause that refreshes. Unless you're into super-short-term trading, stay with this until it ends.
How do you know when it ends? When it breaks the last low and takes out the 200-day MA. Doesn't look as though that will happen for a while.
The great thing about talking to him is that he's very detached from the fundamentals. Making higher highs and higher lows. It based and that was healthy, as it went parabolic for much of 2023 and 2024. Looking at the angle of ascent from late 2023 onward, it was crazy. Now breaking out. Can't see a problem owning at this point, a good story.
His business partner is the fundamental guy. Their firm is driven by fundamentals, but at the end of the day you don't fight the tape. They won't buy a company that doesn't have a decent chance of earnings growth or a catalyst for it to go higher. Must have a decent balance sheet. Also doesn't like overvalued stocks. His firm's called ValueTrend for a reason.
Fundamental analysis will often steer him away from plays that look good technically.
Uptrend's just been broken. The last low in early 2024 was just below $80 and was broken, now at $71. Could base at some point, and that would be an OK time to buy. But right now, he wouldn't want to be in it.
Evolving from this crazy, speculative investment to a real deal. Lots of interest in it. Good rally late 2023, paused, then broke out. Overbought, due for a pullback and then may consolidate. You want to see rallies and consolidation. Don't want to see a breakdown, and there's no sign yet.
Yes, the momentum indicators may be slightly different. RSI on a daily chart is 14 days, which is a big difference from RSI of 14 weeks on a weekly chart. He tends to use weekly charts for most of his work, relying on the daily charts to refine his entry or exit points. 95% of his thought allocation is to the weekly charts.
On a sharp rally, arced off the trendline. Not sure where the 200-day MA is, but once it gets too far ahead of that it's overbought. He'd be concerned about the angle, expect a pullback. But don't argue with the trend too much.
In his aggressive strategy. Doing nothing, struggling. In a longer-term base. He'd buy it for his conservative strategy if it broke out. If breaks below $92 and stays for a few days, he'll sell. His position is only 2%.
For this one, he's looking at the very right side of a 1-year chart. You can see the basing, but what you want to see is a breakout. Could be a swing trade, but doesn't really have enough movement to do that. Could go sideways forever, or break to the downside. Don't buy until you see that breakout.
His book Sideways goes into this strategy in detail.
