Portfolio Manager at ValueTrend Wealth Management
Member since: May '09 · 2483 Opinions
Canadian stocks will outperform American ones this year, after being bearish Canadian for the past 10 years. The Dogs of the Dow theory says take the worst-performing stocks one year, but they perform better the next. The same goes with sectors, which were materials, oils and staples last year, and these are the TSX's heaviest sectors. Secondly, it's likely a new federal government this year will better support business, particularly the resource sector (oil). (Alberta oil production hit a record under Trudeau, notes BNN.) Thirdly, one report he read says that US PE valuations are twice as expensive as they normally are compared to Canadian ones. Fourth, the yield is higher than normal here than the US.
He buys rangebound stocks like one tranche at a time. He just bought one tranche of CNR, because it seemed oversold and is approaching support, but shares may be breaking down now. If this doesn't bounce soon, he will sell.
He doesn't own this, but CNR, and CP is the better bet. CP is now bouncing off a long-term trend line of support. There was a support around $105 in 2024.
Banks in both the US and Canada look pretty good, though the US market is stronger. GS's chart has been in a strong uptrend since late 2023, though recent weakness sees it falling back to that trendline. Hope that it bounces off that and buy. You don't want to see the stock fall further down. See if it holds before buying.
The 3-year chart shows an upward trend. The 1-year is also a good chart with support at $4,200. Importantly, the stock is bouncing off that support. Looks pretty good.
Silver: he's bullish metals this year, and he's been holding Wheaton for a while. Silver broke out 12 months ago after basing the year before, and has been consolidating. Not bearish on silver at all, though it may be pausing for a while. Gold has broken out after a very long base, and this suggest multi-year upside. Gold has a different chart from silver. The greater the base, the greater the case. He's bullish gold for the next couple years.
He owns a large position and likes the pipelines. Don't fight the trend--the chart reflects a sharp uptrend. Over 10 years, the chart is approaching a high last seen 10 years ago, so that's resistance from a long time ago and those shareholders likely sold their positions already and won't sell now.
The chart faces resistance/ceiling at $40--let it break out. Let past buyers at $40 unload their shares before you see new highs. The risk is that it will stop at $40 and reverse.
The chart shows a downtrend which is hard to find. A rally or breakout is possible, sure. But the chart is making lower highs and lower lows. He is not bullish.
It's rangebound. He bought it closer to the bottom, but hasn't risen as hoped. He'd trade at $6. He'll give it the benefit of the doubt, unless it falls beneath support. He's collecting a nice 8% dividend, though.
He likes this company and chart. The 4-year chart shows a base, then break out. One of the best tech charts, because it's not overdone. The company is making strides in getting its business into different venues.
Metals and oil/gas are his favourite areas. Arc is heaver in natural gas, which is doing well now given the cold weather. The chart has moved strongly up, then pulled back and find support at the old break-out point. Add shares at the break-out point.
He's traded this a few times. Is one of the most volatile stocks he's ever seen. Unpredictable falls and rallies. Doesn't like it. If you want to own, see if it holds support at $10.50; it's starting to break that. Again, hard to predict this. Maybe, $8.50 the bottom.
It has strong resistance at $63 and is pulling back. It has a floor of $58 and could bounce there. Stronger support is at $55, but if it breaks that, it could fall to the next support at $42.
Shorting is not for everybody. It's risky. Shares can be dragged up with an overall market move. He avoids shorting.