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Keith Richards
Portfolio Manager at ValueTrend Wealth Management
Member since: May '09 · 2280 Opinions
Rating Card
| All | 
Rating
| 
Big Win
| 
Win
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Neutral
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Loss
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Big Loss
|  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.71 | 252 31.50% | 188 23.50% | 147 18.38% | 141 17.63% | 72 9.00% | ||
| 1 Month | 4.63 | 28 15.38% | 41 22.53% | 71 39.01% | 41 22.53% | 1 0.55% | |
| 6 Months | 4.69 | 39 22.03% | 50 28.25% | 35 19.77% | 39 22.03% | 14 7.91% | |
| 12 Months | 4.66 | 44 26.99% | 46 28.22% | 20 12.27% | 36 22.09% | 17 10.43% | |
| 2 Years | 4.81 | 65 42.76% | 38 25.00% | 11 7.24% | 17 11.18% | 21 13.82% | |
| 5 Years | 4.75 | 76 60.32% | 13 10.32% | 10 7.94% | 8 6.35% | 19 15.08% |
Stock Opinions by Keith Richards
Seasonality matters. In his recent newsletter, he contrasted two reasons why the market might go up, and two reasons why it might go down.
July is OK seasonally, and momentum is still with the market. However, some of the underlying indicators are kind of weak. Like Kevin O'Leary wearing a suit blazer with pyjama bottoms, the market looks good up top, but not so good when you look below the surface.
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He read a statistic that about 3-4% of the S&P 500 is making new highs on the year, versus the percentage of the TSX that's significantly higher. Both have kind of crummy breadth, but especially the S&P 500.
There's always a bit of pumping coming into an election, where they promise the world. That can have an effect on the markets. Typically, election years often see positives in the back half of the year.
But he has a problem with market breadth and overbought status (how much above the 200-day MA the S&P is). He likes the indexes that are a little less technology focused.
He likes the indexes that are a little less technology focused, and he's 98% not tech in his equity platform. And yes, he might underperform for a while, and this will continue as long as it's all about MSFT and NVDA. He doesn't like the market from a momentum point of view, it's overbought, but you can't argue with it too much so you have to be invested.
He's compared the breadth stats between now and 2000-2001, and the two market participation numbers are at about the same level. The usual suspects were moving up, and nothing else was. We're in the same sort of situation. Everyone knows what happened, it imploded.
He's not saying it will implode tomorrow. But the setup is perfect, it's going to happen, unless things slow down for that handful of leading stocks.
It very well could happen. Right now, though, the focus is so much on those stocks. Everybody's aware that they're overbought, yet everyone's still buying them partially because of FOMO. When that changes, the other stocks will catch up, which is why he's in non-tech stocks. The change will happen eventually, so it's safer to be there now, even if he suffers a few months of underperformance.
In an uptrend, higher highs and higher lows. Ideal time to buy or add is when there's a bit of a pullback and stock hits the trendline. Hard to predict 3-5 years for anything these days, but if the trend is up, stay with it.
No. Draw it so that it touches the troughs. It's sort of a median line. If the stock hits that, it's probably a buying opportunity.
Oils have been trading sideways. Stock's close to midway between one of its trading ranges. Stuck in limbo for next few months. Not great during summer seasonality. OK on dips, but don't expect much for a few months.
See his (really good;) blog on oils, being published tomorrow.
Seasonally, not great over the summer. Coming into an election, incumbent will try to keep prices low, so that inflation and gas prices don't look so bad, and electorate will like them. They've done it before. He's lightened up, but still holding, expects these stocks to tread water for a while.
See his (really good;) blog on oils, being published tomorrow.
Absolutely. But remember that it's just like any government, where there are people behind the leaders that do all the thinking. The leader at the top is really just the talking head.
Just starting to break out, you can see it on the 5-year chart. Whenever you see a breakout, that's good news. Pretty decent-looking chart. If looking for entry points, perhaps buy on a pullback to the neckline around 50-ish dollars. As long as the breakout holds, anywhere near that $50 point is a great buy point.
Before you get too many legs in, maybe wait till it goes to $53, and then pulls back a buck or two.
This is a new development so pay attention; could be good, could be bad. Reached resistance around $200. He'd wait and see whether it breaks out. Hold for now, but if it continues to break down, he'd be out.
Good company, but trades aggressively. Right now, chart looks pretty bullish. If it gets through its old resistance level of around $140 from 2022, it will have other levels to try to break through.
Yes. Volume counts, but especially on up days. One of his favourite indicators is money flow. It compares positive volume days with negative volume days, and assigns a significance to the bigger volume in that move. The MFI is a momentum indicator, so you can see if there's money building in a stock.
