Keith Richards
Portfolio Manager at ValueTrend Wealth Management
Member since: May '09 · 2542 Opinions
Rating Card
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Big Loss
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.66 | 238 30.32% | 176 22.42% | 149 18.98% | 150 19.11% | 72 9.17% | ||
| 1 Month | 4.6 | 25 13.51% | 41 22.16% | 71 38.38% | 46 24.86% | 2 1.08% | |
| 6 Months | 4.64 | 36 20.22% | 47 26.40% | 36 20.22% | 45 25.28% | 14 7.87% | |
| 12 Months | 4.66 | 47 29.19% | 42 26.09% | 20 12.42% | 34 21.12% | 18 11.18% | |
| 2 Years | 4.68 | 59 42.75% | 32 23.19% | 11 7.97% | 16 11.59% | 20 14.49% | |
| 5 Years | 4.7 | 71 57.72% | 14 11.38% | 11 8.94% | 9 7.32% | 18 14.63% |
Stock Opinions by Keith Richards
Everyone's concerned about tariffs. His firm is working around that by following their rules. He was very heavy in cash through most of the winter. Quantitatively, he has seen a couple of reasons for getting back into the market and has been stepping in over the past month.
There are also some signs from the fundamental side of potential slowing and recession, on both sides of the border. He doesn't want to step in aggressively. He's been buying value, but is still holding tons of cash. He's trying to buy equities that aren't correlated to the overall stock market.
Markets rarely make V bottoms. Covid in 2020 did do that, but that's rare over 100 years of charting. Usually, a market falls and then does some ups and downs before deciding to continue with the bull market. Unless this is another of those 1 in 100 years V bottoms, he's wary of stepping in too aggressively.
He has a quant model that tells him when risk is high. His risk model went into neutral, and then it moved ahead of the 50-day MA and then the 200-day MA, so he stepped in some more. Yet he's still over 25% cash.
If we take out the highs on the S&P, then he has proof that we are moving back into a bull market. But we haven't done that yet.
He's relatively positive on Canadian energy, with some caveats. Oil stocks have been near the bottom of a trading range, whereas the gas stocks have done OK. More probability of upside in gas over the next couple of years. Yet there might be opportunity in oil stocks.
This ETF is probably more biased towards oil. Try to buy on a lift off the bottom, and then sell somewhere near resistance. This one is bouncing off the halfway point of the range, which is support from 2024. You have a decent chance of it getting to the $18-19 range or maybe a bit higher. He'd rather trade individual stocks than the ETF.
The chart looks mahvelous ;) It's in an uptrend, and the trend is your friend till it ends. Try to buy on the dips that approach the trendline. He's near-term cautious on the markets, so it could pull back closer to trend; if it did, he'd be all over it. If you own it, don't bother selling on the dip.
He's recently been talking about this on his blogs and videos. Right now, he prefers silver over gold (though he still holds it). Silver has a catchup trade to do, it's just getting started. Silver's still somewhat below its all-time high, whereas gold took out its high a year or so ago.
He owns lots of silver, but only started legging in early 2025 or late 2024. Silver futures chart is in fine shape. Coming down to the trendline now, so probably a good opportunity. When things get overbought, he takes profits, and goes back in later at a lower price.
You have to take all the indicators together. For example if the price is going up, but momentum is slowing, you know it's going to be bad news for the stock eventually.
This chart hit a high ~$180, pulled back, and is attempting to hit it again. That will be a resistance point, which needs to be cracked. If momentum's already overbought, and it's about to hit resistance, he'd say it has less chance of going through resistance. However, if it's hooking up through the level, then you could see it go through $180.
Looks as though it's trying to break out. Be aware that there was a false breakout earlier this year. So you really want to see the peak back in March or so taken out.
Bases are good, and they say that "the greater the base the better the case". Pretty good base here of a year or more; a breakout would be powerful on the stock. (But if it fails, can also be powerful to the downside.) If the breakout is for real this time, tons of upside. He loves base breakouts; he wrote a book called Sideways on that topic.
Bases are good, and they say that "the greater the base the better the case". He loves base breakouts; he wrote a book called Sideways on that topic.
If a stock breaks out for real, it needs to stay above resistance for 3 days to 3 weeks. And then you start legging in. There's tons of potential on a stock that breaks out.
Chart had well over a year of going nowhere, and then broke out without retracing and went to the moon. Now it's pulling down. The next thing you'll look for is where could it land, and the chart shows that that's where it is right now -- old resistance becomes new support. His book Sideways explains why.
Chart's bouncing off that support, which is very positive. He'd be legging in. If it breaks below ~$130 or so, that's bad news. For now, it's above that, so put a leg in. Your stop loss is the old resistance level, the place to sell.
(Note the short timeframe.) He wanted to trade the trading range. He never uses physical stop losses, as you can get whipped out. It broke down from $85, so then he counts a minimum of 3 days -- yesterday, today, and he'll see what happens tomorrow. If it stays down, on Tuesday (US markets closed Monday) he'll sell the position.
Some trades don't work out. The best traders lose money on trades, but it's how much you lose that's important. You take a bit of a haircut and you move on. Rather than hanging on and hoping, while you watch it go down and down.
(Note the short timeframe.) This is a swing trade. Looking at the chart, you can see how the stock likes to go down to $90-ish, and then go up to $100-ish. That's 10% that you can trade and trade. He always buys on the bounce.
He feels that all oil will break out eventually. He's hoping to get $100 on this, though it's pulled back a bit. If it gets there, he'll probably sell and then get back in if it returns to the bottom. If it doesn't, his buy price was close to the bottom so he isn't losing anything.
(Note the short timeframe.) We have a yin and yang market. He just published a video yesterday on this, with 4 technical reasons why the market is bullish, and 4 fundamental reasons why it's bearish. His conclusion is that we'll probably get a pullback in the near term, and then it all depends on what the orange man says next ;)
He's holding some cash because markets rarely make V bottoms. A pullback to the 200-day moving average or so is likely. And then maybe the market will go up. But he can't make that call today.
(The total return depends on how and where an investor held the cash.)
