Paul Harris, CFA
Partner and Portfolio Manager at Harris Douglas Asset Management
Member since: Feb '04 · 3840 Opinions
Rating Card
| All | 
Rating
| 
Big Win
| 
Win
| 
Neutral
| 
Loss
| 
Big Loss
|  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.95 | 349 31.99% | 286 26.21% | 158 14.48% | 185 16.96% | 113 10.36% | ||
| 1 Month | 4.92 | 11 4.33% | 98 38.58% | 85 33.46% | 57 22.44% | 3 1.18% | |
| 6 Months | 5 | 57 22.80% | 83 33.20% | 31 12.40% | 56 22.40% | 23 9.20% | |
| 12 Months | 5 | 96 39.18% | 51 20.82% | 26 10.61% | 47 19.18% | 25 10.20% | |
| 2 Years | 5 | 98 45.79% | 46 21.50% | 12 5.61% | 17 7.94% | 41 19.16% | |
| 5 Years | 4.84 | 87 67.97% | 8 6.25% | 4 3.13% | 8 6.25% | 21 16.41% |
Stock Opinions by Paul Harris, CFA
The volatility in the markets is partly due to the unpredictability of what Donald Trump will do. Also the market has been trading at high levels and interest rates are about 4.5% so it does offer an alternative to stocks. The Fed is unsure about what to do. We were on a path to lower interest rates globally but now the U.S. says maybe not. The tariffs would basically be a supply shock to the economy. However you can use volatility to buy companies you really like for the long term at cheaper valuations. This is not necessarily good for short term traders. It is difficult for people to go from cash into the market.
The issue was in the U.S. resulting in a big fine but that is now out of the way. TD now has an opportunity to get rid of businesses not giving a good rate of return and an opportunity to do a better job than other banks. It has more exposure to the retail side. Also volatility helps investment banking. TD is under the microscope.
He owns Novo but Eli Lilly is a great company in the sweet spot of an obesity drug and other drugs as well. It has done well for the last little while. Manufacturing drugs is not easy and takes lots of time from approval to production. It is a huge franchise and can grow quite a lot.
It produces medical devices which is a good business to be in. The aging population needs their products and there is a backlog from Covid. Their products change the quality of life and reduce hospital stays to a couple of days. 71% of its business comes from the U.S. and there is lots of growth internationally.
There is lots of growth internationally. The banks take on the risks in using the cards. It has become too big but that can change. The loyalty programs really help in the credit card business but there is a possibility that they may not be used as much in the future.
He has owned it for a long time. There is a lot of overhang on the stock due to the attempt to buy the Seven Eleven chain. Investors wonder what happens next since it didn't go through. It is incredibly well run and rationalizes their acquisitions. It is ahead of the curve in several ways.
He has owned this for a long time. The issue is partly AI and worries about how it can use AI effectively. Also its $80 billion in capital expenditures. This can hurt margins and free cash flow but Capex is coming down. It is big on the institutional side and we should see the value of that next year.
