Stock Opinions by Paul Harris, CFA - Stockchase Experts
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Paul Harris, CFA @

On Stockchase since : Feb 2004

Portfolio Manager and Partner at Avenue Investment Management

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Stock Opinions by Paul Harris, CFA - Stockchase Experts

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

October 11, 2018

With this current pullback, these are days investors long for because you can invest. You can buy companies cheaper. Interest rates are rising because the economy is growing. The market is adjusting to this. Now is an opportunity. If you have a long-term perspective, you can pick up companies you really like. There may be more volatility until rates settle. Could go sideways. There's also the China trade slowing with difficult numbers in Europe, not to mention the US midterms in a month. Volatility can hurt you, but also be your friend if you believe in investing in the next 20 years (i.e. your RRSP). US companies will continue to do well. Maybe there are a few more days of down markets. It's healthy to see a correction. In the next two weeks, a lot of earnings are coming out. Look out for projections of the next several quarters, like the impact of oil or wages. A great opportunity now.

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With this current pullback, these are days investors long for because you can invest. You can buy companies cheaper. Interest rates are rising because the economy is growing. The market is adjusting to this. Now is an opportunity. If you have a long-term perspective, you can pick up companies you really like. There may be more volatility until rates settle. Could go sideways. There's also the China trade slowing with difficult numbers in Europe, not to mention the US midterms in a month. Volatility can hurt you, but also be your friend if you believe in investing in the next 20 years (i.e. your RRSP). US companies will continue to do well. Maybe there are a few more days of down markets. It's healthy to see a correction. In the next two weeks, a lot of earnings are coming out. Look out for projections of the next several quarters, like the impact of oil or wages. A great opportunity now.

Unknown
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Paul Harris, CF

Portfolio , Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
Unknown

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TOP PICK
Firstservice Corp(FSV-T) 

October 11, 2018

Mainly in property management. Likes that they're capital-light and low capex. Can generate enough cash flow to grow. Acquire a lot of smaller companies in their sector. 25x forward earnings so not cheap, but they execute well. Managers own 20% of shares. (0.7% dividend, Analysts' price target: $108.49)

other services
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Mainly in property management. Likes that they're capital-light and low capex. Can generate enough cash flow to grow. Acquire a lot of smaller companies in their sector. 25x forward earnings so not cheap, but they execute well. Managers own 20% of shares. (0.7% dividend, Analysts' price target: $108.49)

other services
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Paul Harris, CF

Portfolio , Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$102.630
Owned Owned
Yes

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TOP PICK

There's limited competition for them yet sustainable demand. Crude by rail helps given the lack of pipelines. Well-run with an extensive rail network. (1.7% dividend, Analysts' price target: $120.07)

Transportation
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There's limited competition for them yet sustainable demand. Crude by rail helps given the lack of pipelines. Well-run with an extensive rail network. (1.7% dividend, Analysts' price target: $120.07)

Transportation
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Paul Harris, CF

Portfolio , Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$109.770
Owned Owned
Yes

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TOP PICK
CVS Health Corp(CVS-N) 

October 11, 2018

Trades at 9x earnings. The Aetna deal with likely be approved soon, being a vertical integration in the healthcare sector. The only question is can they integrate successfully? (2.7%Analysts' price target$88.14)

specialty stores
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Trades at 9x earnings. The Aetna deal with likely be approved soon, being a vertical integration in the healthcare sector. The only question is can they integrate successfully? (2.7%Analysts' price target$88.14)

specialty stores
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Paul Harris, CF

Portfolio , Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$73.190
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY
Manulife Financial(MFC-T) 

October 11, 2018

Short-seller Muddy Waters is about a specific legal case in progress. Strong franchise in Asia, but what's hurting them is their John Hancock franchise in the U.S. with a low ROE. Have a strong asset management business. MFC must deal with Hancock--can't sell it but must improve ROE. Management is slowly doing that. Now is a good buying opportunity with a good yield. Could take time.

insurance
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Short-seller Muddy Waters is about a specific legal case in progress. Strong franchise in Asia, but what's hurting them is their John Hancock franchise in the U.S. with a low ROE. Have a strong asset management business. MFC must deal with Hancock--can't sell it but must improve ROE. Management is slowly doing that. Now is a good buying opportunity with a good yield. Could take time.

insurance
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Paul Harris, CF

Portfolio , Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$20.310
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Tesla Motors Inc(TSLA-Q) 

October 11, 2018

They make beautiful cars, but Musk has been inconsistent and are burning a lot of cash. Musk needs somebody who can actually run a car business. Musk is a visionary, but he needs to run a business, like Steve Jobs at Apple needed somebody. He will likely do an equity issue and dilute the stock. If Tesla keeps missing numbers, competitors will slowly catch up.

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They make beautiful cars, but Musk has been inconsistent and are burning a lot of cash. Musk needs somebody who can actually run a car business. Musk is a visionary, but he needs to run a business, like Steve Jobs at Apple needed somebody. He will likely do an equity issue and dilute the stock. If Tesla keeps missing numbers, competitors will slowly catch up.

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Paul Harris, CF

Portfolio , Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$252.230
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Goldman Sachs(GS-N) 

October 11, 2018

A top investment bank in the world. New CEO needs to talk about the company more, but investment banks should do well in volatility. What's hurt Goldman is that its retail side if weak and are only now slowly going into that area and seeing decent growth. Beware: there's a lot of volatility in investment banking and they don't have retail to fall back on. A good brand to own.

investment companies/funds
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A top investment bank in the world. New CEO needs to talk about the company more, but investment banks should do well in volatility. What's hurt Goldman is that its retail side if weak and are only now slowly going into that area and seeing decent growth. Beware: there's a lot of volatility in investment banking and they don't have retail to fall back on. A good brand to own.

investment companies/funds
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Paul Harris, CF

Portfolio , Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$212.970
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT

Stock has come off when CEO Jack Ma left. A big issue is how they grow outside China--can they do it? Valuation isn't cheap, but they are strong in China along with a growing middle class. They will do well long-term there. 

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Stock has come off when CEO Jack Ma left. A big issue is how they grow outside China--can they do it? Valuation isn't cheap, but they are strong in China along with a growing middle class. They will do well long-term there. 

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Paul Harris, CF

Portfolio , Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$141.900
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
Johnson & Johnson(JNJ-N) 

October 11, 2018

Great company. Pharma, medical devices and consumer are their 3 divisions, which makes them unique--that diversification serves them well, unlike phrama companies depend solely on their pharma division. Has raised dividend for 54 years. Well run. 

biotechnology/pharmaceutical
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Great company. Pharma, medical devices and consumer are their 3 divisions, which makes them unique--that diversification serves them well, unlike phrama companies depend solely on their pharma division. Has raised dividend for 54 years. Well run. 

biotechnology/pharmaceutical
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Paul Harris, CF

Portfolio , Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$133.840
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
Netflix Inc.(NFLX-Q) 

October 11, 2018

Hard to value Netflix. They have pricing power and dominate the growing streaming sector. Good market share in the U.S. and growing share outside U.S. It's all about the content they produce, which eats up their cash flow. It'll be volatile. Young people who use Netflix share their passwords, so that's an issue. Netflix has to deal with this. But their brand is strong and the shift to streaming away from TV is definitely on their side.

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Hard to value Netflix. They have pricing power and dominate the growing streaming sector. Good market share in the U.S. and growing share outside U.S. It's all about the content they produce, which eats up their cash flow. It'll be volatile. Young people who use Netflix share their passwords, so that's an issue. Netflix has to deal with this. But their brand is strong and the shift to streaming away from TV is definitely on their side.

Unknown
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Paul Harris, CF

Portfolio , Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$321.100
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
Bank of America(BAC-N) 

October 11, 2018

Bank of America vs. Citigroup Prefers BAC. Citigroup is cheaper though. But BAC has better opportunities with a strong banking franchise in the U.S; their Merill Lynch franchise is also good. Trading at 1.1x book that should grow. Citirgroup is reducing costs and technology will drive growth here. Can do only small acquisitions now, not large, though regulations are easing. Citi trades at a lower multiple, but BAC holds more opportunity.

banks
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Bank of America vs. Citigroup Prefers BAC. Citigroup is cheaper though. But BAC has better opportunities with a strong banking franchise in the U.S; their Merill Lynch franchise is also good. Trading at 1.1x book that should grow. Citirgroup is reducing costs and technology will drive growth here. Can do only small acquisitions now, not large, though regulations are easing. Citi trades at a lower multiple, but BAC holds more opportunity.

banks
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Paul Harris, CF

Portfolio , Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$28.360
Owned Owned
Yes

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DON'T BUY
CitiGroup(C-N) 

October 11, 2018

Bank of  America  vs. Citigroup Prefers BAC. Citigroup is cheaper though. But BAC has better opportunities with a strong banking franchise in the U.S; their Merill Lynch franchise is also good. Trading at 1.1x book that should grow. Citirgroup is reducing costs and technology will drive growth here. Can do only small acquisitions now, not large, though regulations are easing. Citi trades at a lower multiple, but BAC holds more opportunity.

insurance
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0 comments

Bank of  America  vs. Citigroup Prefers BAC. Citigroup is cheaper though. But BAC has better opportunities with a strong banking franchise in the U.S; their Merill Lynch franchise is also good. Trading at 1.1x book that should grow. Citirgroup is reducing costs and technology will drive growth here. Can do only small acquisitions now, not large, though regulations are easing. Citi trades at a lower multiple, but BAC holds more opportunity.

insurance
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Paul Harris, CF

Portfolio , Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$68.380
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT
Barclays Bank PLC(BCS-N) 

October 11, 2018

Likes it. They bought Lehman, which had investment banking but was really a bond house, so Dodd-Frank caused a lot of capital issues and restrictions. New management is doing a good job by sticking with investment banking and have a great retail franchise in the UK, and they exited businesses around the world that didn't work out. They're going all the right things, though Brexit creates uncertainty. Great credit card business. It will do well, but have to get past Brexit early next year.

banks
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Likes it. They bought Lehman, which had investment banking but was really a bond house, so Dodd-Frank caused a lot of capital issues and restrictions. New management is doing a good job by sticking with investment banking and have a great retail franchise in the UK, and they exited businesses around the world that didn't work out. They're going all the right things, though Brexit creates uncertainty. Great credit card business. It will do well, but have to get past Brexit early next year.

banks
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Paul Harris, CF

Portfolio , Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$8.740
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Facebook(FB-Q) 

October 11, 2018

The big issue is how they deal with people use FB to subvert elections. Will this have an effect on their next numbers? Also, how do they monetize Instagram? Some management turmoil here. Also FB usage is down, though Instagram use is up. Google is easier to understand from an online ad perspective. 

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The big issue is how they deal with people use FB to subvert elections. Will this have an effect on their next numbers? Also, how do they monetize Instagram? Some management turmoil here. Also FB usage is down, though Instagram use is up. Google is easier to understand from an online ad perspective. 

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Paul Harris, CF

Portfolio , Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$153.350
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
Novo-Nordisk(NVO-N) 

October 11, 2018

It's always been pricey, though it has come off due to competition. He'd look to buy it now. Market growth is substanial and NVO can benefit from it.

biotechnology/pharmaceutical
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It's always been pricey, though it has come off due to competition. He'd look to buy it now. Market growth is substanial and NVO can benefit from it.

biotechnology/pharmaceutical
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Paul Harris, CF

Portfolio , Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$41.540
Owned Owned
Unknown

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