COMMENT

The market expected today's Bank of Canada interest rate hike to 2.5%, given rising inflation fueled by rising energy prices from the U.S.-Iran war. It probably won't impact the TSX much because the index is heavily weighted in commodities and financials, which may actually benefit from higher rates. The hike follows the U.S. one. AI stocks are driving the market and there's a lack of market breadth. About half the S&P is tied to AI and data centres. But two-thirds of the S&P are trading below their 50-day moving average, mostly those not linked to AI, but that's where opportunities lie. He also likes energy.

DON'T BUY

The strike at their Highland Valley Copper mine in British is big, but not the entire story. Rather, the main driver is the impending merger with Anglo American. The copper situation has been tight this year, given copper demand and lack of supply. There are cleaner ways to play copper before the merger.

COMMENT

The Canadian banks have benefited the last 2 years from the wealth and asset management and capital markets businesses from this strong market. Also, worries about housing have eased as interest rates have fallen. The PE has risen from 12-13x to 16-18x. Maybe with higher rates, housing may slow again. So, he'd be cautious the banks.

COMMENT

He expects more consolidation in Canadian energy for the smaller companies to compete with the bigger ones. SOIL is a take-out candidate. The problem with smaller energy is they lack the scale and financing of the big players.

DON'T BUY

They try for low costs in the Caribbean. It's a tough business. GIL is very sensitive to tariffs. Until there's clarity here, he'd aboid.

DON'T BUY

They're trying to create a digital mobile-first banking app. It's a very competitive space (i.e. Wealthsimple). Not a profitable business.

DON'T BUY

They focus in shale oil in the Permian Basin where a lot growth in US energy comes from, but suffers high declines rates. He prefers the Canadian Oil Sands, though, because there's no decline; they're very long-life reserves with a fixed-cost structure.

BUY

They've benefitted in recent years by proving engineering services to the data centre build. But there are fears that AI will disrupt engineering firms, but that fear is misguided. You will still need an engineering company to finish these projects. AI will make firms more efficient,

BUY

The business is performing as usual, but there's the worry that AI will disrupt this (and other engineering firms). This opens opportunity to investors.

COMMENT

If you have a sum of cash, keep it in a high-interest savings account so you get easy access. If you can wait longer, buy Canadian GICs. However, don't chase yield in U.S. instruments, because U.S. interest rates are higher there than here. It's likely the currency will wipe out whatever gain you make. Long term, invest with a manager or ETF.

BUY

Earlier this year, the market feared AI would disrupt TRI. Since then, there's been little evidence of that while TRI clients have remained with TRI. Also, TRI has adopted AI well.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 11/26, Up 8%)

Medical devices have had a rough year over cuts to Medicare. Also, SYK had a cyber attack this year. It remains a fantastic business. Artificial joints, hips and knees are a key business as the population ages. They keep gaining market share. Is undervalued.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 11/26, Up 4%)

Its business is doing very well, benefits as more people invest in ETFs, and selling data to hedge funds.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 11/26, Up 23%)

They just reported good margins, despite high diesel prices, and they will raise prices next year. Garbage is recession-resilient and has nothing to do with interest rates and AI. It's very defensive. AI tools help their business.

WEAK BUY

A stall in building data centres would impact GEV; they supply turbines. Energy remains the choke point in data centres, so GEV is important. GEV though can't keep up with new gas turbine demand, which could lead to clients seeking alternatives like renewables and nuclear.