Latest Stock Buy or Sell? Make More Informed Decisions!

Today, Cole Smead commented about whether AUTO.L, BARC-O, IPCO.TO, SDE.TO, TD.TO, MDA.TO, WCP.TO, CIGI.TO, TVE.TO, ATH.TO, BTE.TO, HR.UN.TO, SLF.TO, SCR.TO, CVE.TO, LNR.TO are stocks to buy or sell.

COMMENT

There's still room to run in global stocks in this rotation period, shifting away from U.S. tech, because investors are adding up the costs and returns in tech--and it isn't adding up. So, the shift has been to the opposite: energy, just energy thrived in the sluggish 70s. Washington: How lame duck is Trump? We'll likely see a Democrat Congress, though who knows what will happen to the Senate? Probably, we'll see gridlock, which markets like. Markets would be more bearish if things shifted entirely to the left, because of tax policy. Trump lowered corporate taxes, but there won't be tax changes for at least 6 months.

DON'T BUY

It's in the middle of political crosshairs, Historically, LNR has done really well, and is family-owned, but he'd like to see more insider buying. That said, it lacks something that doesn't make it attractive today.

BUY

They know more about  Steam-Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) assets than anyone in the world, and are willing to pay one a net operating loss adjusted basis the highest multiples ever in the space. They (and Strathcona) are in control of the most valuable energy assets in North America--the Oil Sands running thermal operations.

BUY

He's owned this since they announced the Pipestone merger three years ago. They (and Cenovus) are in control of the most valuable energy assets in North America--the Oil Sands running thermal operations.

DON'T BUY

They trade at 2.3x book, which doesn't offer a discount, but rising interest rates will help insurers and banks.

COMMENT
the merger

He's against the merger with GO Residential REIT; he doesn't see value in it. He expects it to be voted down. If so, the offering group could make another offer, but there's little cash. GO could bring capital and a better offer. Most plausible is a vote of no confidence in the executive team, who will likely be replaced.

DON'T BUY

Though making good money on the exchange rate, there is a fear in the energy sector over WCS spreads. That said, the future is bright for the energy industry. Baytex has 3 asset basins; the Duvernay is a growth business but produces less cash flow than their other businesses, and they have the Manville with heavy oil. BTE has rallied with the sector, but there are better and easier energy stocks to own.

COMMENT

They're being bought out. It's trading at a premium to the buy-out offer. In the interim, it'll be a cash proxy.

COMMENT

Unlike the Oil Sands, TVE is not allowed to book as many of their reserves upfront. You must invest to water flood, but as time goes on, the returns increase. Ask, what's the cash I'm getting in this quarter? And add atop that the reserves they're booking in that quarter. He expects the Clearwater deal to close.

DON'T BUY

Commercial real estate has been a dead business. He hasn't looked at this stock recently.

DON'T BUY

It's had a good run and pays a good dividend, but the compounded returns in the past 5 years in the SAGD oil space were better.

DON'T BUY

They're constantly spending more capital to improve their business, but profits are not rising.

DON'T BUY

He owns no Canadian banks, though US and European which offer increasing returns from consolidation. He expects the largest period of consolidation in European banks in history. That won't happen in Canada. Also, the multiples are lower in European banks.

DON'T BUY

They will produce free cash flows in coming years. But SDE must get much bigger to produce that flow. Also, these businesses depend on the oil price, so will fall when that price falls.

TOP PICK

Their new asset, Blackrod, will produce 30,000 barrels of oil next years, so you're paying for Blackrod and the rest of IPCO's assets for free. You don't have to be on their non-thermal assets over time, just their thermal assets. They buyback shares. The Lundin family owns a lot of shares.

(Analysts’ price target is $43.66)