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COMMENT
How does its deal with OpenAI compare to the one already made with NVDA?

Good question. The answer is that it doesn't matter, because the market response is extraordinary for these things. Anybody's evaluation of it doesn't tell you why this stock should be up 25-30% in a day for such a large company. 

So the analysis doesn't matter. He's more interested in the market response, which tells you about the speculative nature of the market we're now in. And it could last days, months, maybe years. AI is still very early, and everybody gets really excited about it. 

COMMENT
Confident investing in this market?

He's not, as he realizes the speculative nature of what's going on right now. For him, his style is more of value, GARP, not growth at any price. We're now in a growth-at-any-price market environment. It doesn't scare him, as he's seen it before, but you have to understand what it means.

It means it can keep going and for far longer than people expect. When it ends, it can end abruptly and dramatically.

COMMENT
When do we cross the line from reasonable value for growth to current conditions?

When you have forward-based earnings not going up, but the market multiple is, that's an environment when you have to ask what's the market moving on? You want the market to move on fundamentals.

If forward-based earnings were ramping, and the economic outlook was robust, then he'd say game on. But when you don't have that, it's a troubling sign.

COMMENT
Market impact of US government shutdown.

It's not a big deal. We've seen this many, many times. It lasts for days or even weeks, but doesn't matter for earnings. Ultimately, the people who aren't getting paid now will get all caught up. To the degree that the administration can lay people off in any significant way, it doesn't really move the needle enough to matter from a macro-economic perspective. 

It's disruptive for people. We can't see economic data we're expecting. We did get employment data from the private sector last week on ADP, and it showed job losses. Would've been nice to see on Friday whether that was confirmed in the official government data.

Those things start to creep into the decision making. We have a Fed meeting at the end of the month, and it's a virtual certainty that they're going to cut rates. Yes, even if they don't get new data. Without seeing new inflation data, that is a risk. So they're going to go slowly, no need to be aggressive. Then we should start getting data again in a few weeks.

WEAK BUY
For a retired 68-year-old with a well-diversified portfolio.

Basket of corporate bonds from the entire universe of Canadian corporate bonds. There's a bit of interest rate risk in there. Right now, credit spreads are very tight. So, though you're getting an additional yield compared to government bonds, you're not getting compensated all that well for the credit risk that he sees in this part of the business cycle. Doesn't like the strategy at the moment.

He's OK with it if you're looking for additional yield or to take $$ out of equities. It has a bit more credit and interest-rate risk. For more safety, look at ZST.

BUY

Money-market version of corporate bonds. Pays a premium to government T-bills. More cash-like, so use this one if you're trying to reduce risk in your portfolio.

COMMENT
Funds that wrap US funds.

Couple of things to consider. If you're a trader, the spreads are a little bit wider, so you're paying more on your ins and outs (compared to buying the US one directly). If you're a long-term investor and want to do it in a CAD account, and you don't want to convert the currency, then they're efficient vehicles.

So it really depends on what you're using it for. They're perfect replications of the US versions, though the fees are a bit more.

TRADE
Natural gas -- buy now, or wait?

He likes this ETF to play the sector. Mostly American names that are gas-weighted. Most oil & gas plays are not gas only, though a few dominate on natural gas -- such as AR (which he owns) and OXY.

While the market's expensive, nat gas is not particularly so. He's been buying into weakness, riding to the top of the range. Likes the sector right now.

Oil and gas is a tough sector in which to be a long-term, buy-and-hold investor, unless you have conviction in the management of a company. He's more of a trader in that sense, not married to any particular management team. Long-term investing in the sector is "an Eric Nuttall question".

BUY ON WEAKNESS

While the market's expensive, nat gas is not particularly so. He's been buying into weakness, and riding up to the top end of the range for a trade.

COMMENT
Structured notes.

This area is very broad. Many products are excellent, but do have high fees. They typically deliver a defined outcome for you. The benefit is sleep-at-night, as the downside's limited only to a certain type of loss and you have the upside potential if the strategy works out.

For example, one could be linked to the Toronto Stock Exchange. They'll give you 2 or 3 times the upside potential, with some sort of cap on it. They use options strategies to define those outcomes. Typically for a 5-year period. It's a note (a promise to pay) issued by the underlying bank, which is sort of a risk but not when it's one of the Canadian banks. It's an obligation by the bank. They use your money and deliver on a promise based on a certain outcome. Lots of fees. Pretty popular right now given where interest rates are.

BUY

Actively managed strategy. Likes the manager. Could do well if banking legislation gets passed, and he believes there's bipartisan support for it. Lots of volatility. Likes it right now. The only thing right now that has the potential for a 2-, 4-, 5-, or 10-bagger.

BUY

Could do well if banking legislation gets passed, and he believes there's bipartisan support for it. Lots of volatility. Likes it right now. The only thing right now that has the potential for a 2-, 4-, 5-, or 10-bagger.

PARTIAL SELL
In an RRSP.

If you were to look at a chart for the sector over 40 years, you'd see that gold bullion's gone up but gold equities really haven't. Not great long-term investments. Ultimately, you want to trim profits.

His rule of thumb: Say your allocation to the sector for the long run is 5%, and now your position is 10%. Take half the $$ out and deploy it somewhere else. Now you're back at 5%. Keep doing that every time it doubles. You'll never get rich doing that, but it's all about risk management.

PARTIAL SELL
In an RRSP.

If you were to look at a chart for the sector over 40 years, you'd see that gold bullion's gone up but gold equities really haven't. Not great long-term investments. Ultimately, you want to trim profits.

His rule of thumb: Say your allocation to the sector for the long run is 5%, and now your position is 10%. Take half the $$ out and deploy it somewhere else. Now you're back at 5%. Keep doing that every time it doubles. You'll never get rich doing that, but it's all about risk management.

BUY
Looking for monthly USD income -- Dynamic Premium Yield PLUS Fund.

Great fund, great managers. Uses options to extract income, uses leverage. Does its job well. This ETF tracks the fund, but it's not in US dollars. Strategy may not be identical to the fund, but similar. Consider ZPAY.

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