Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Member since: Jul '02
Chief Investment Officer, Partner at
ETF Capital Management Inc.
ETF Capital Management Inc.
3353 Opinions
Latest Top Picks
Long term, coming out of this, we will get a global reset here. He wants to go to places that are not burdened by tremendous debt and have young populations with runways of economic growth as people age. The developed world's populations are old.
Parts of sub-Sahara and the Middle East. It is a notch below the emerging markets. You get exposure including banks, telecom and construction. There is a lot of risk and currency exposure.
The Fed balance sheet is projected to double in size. They are creating money and monetizing debt and we are never going to come out of this. There is going to be an inflationary impact coming from the world. Supply chains will change. These things will change dynamically but push costs up. Gold will benefit from that for the next number of years.
It is on his shopping list. Don’t buy today. This is global clean energy. This is good for 10-20 years and will be part of global growth. He likes it at $8 or better.
The young people in emerging markets is where global growth this coming from in the next few years. Don't buy here, do it at recent lows or lower.
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April 2, 2020
Educational Segment. Market. He suggested last week that the rally was more about a rebalance between bonds and stocks on a quarterly basis. That is now clearly what it was. Part of the legislation in the US says that any corporations that are going to need help from the government are going to have a restriction on share buy backs or dividend issuing until the loan is paid off. He showed a chart of expected dividends from the S&P and how three months ago they would go up steadily. Now they will take a dip and then climb back to what they are now in about a decade. His sleep at night portfolio (ZZZD-T) sank with others until about a week ago and then rose and has lost less than his other comparisons YTD.
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Educational Segment. Market. He suggested last week that the rally was more about a rebalance between bonds and stocks on a quarterly basis. That is now clearly what it was. Part of the legislation in the US says that any corporations that are going to need help from the government are going to have a restriction on share buy backs or dividend issuing until the loan is paid off. He showed a chart of expected dividends from the S&P and how three months ago they would go up steadily. Now they will take a dip and then climb back to what they are now in about a decade. His sleep at night portfolio (ZZZD-T) sank with others until about a week ago and then rose and has lost less than his other comparisons YTD.
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 2, 2020
Why would both go on on the same day? The VIX (VXX-N) tracks the expectation of volatility over the next month. Volatility changes. If the market (SPY-N) is going up then typically volatility comes down. If the catalyst for a rally is thought to be short lived, then volatility can go up as well.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 2, 2020
Why would both go on on the same day? The VIX (VXX-N) tracks the expectation of volatility over the next month. Volatility changes. If the market (SPY-N) is going up then typically volatility comes down. If the catalyst for a rally is thought to be short lived, then volatility can go up as well.
E.T.F.'s
WATCH
WATCH
April 2, 2020
There is more volatility to come. The government of Canada wants to minimize the energy industry. There is a serious push for climate change. You'll get a lot more support in the US than in Canada, but you have to consider the tax implications if it is a cash account instead of a registered account. The current situation will require cuts from every nation.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThere is more volatility to come. The government of Canada wants to minimize the energy industry. There is a serious push for climate change. You'll get a lot more support in the US than in Canada, but you have to consider the tax implications if it is a cash account instead of a registered account. The current situation will require cuts from every nation.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 2, 2020
ZWB-T vs. ZEB-T. If your view on the banks is sideways to down a little bit, then ZWB-T is the better holding but if you are bullish on the banks then you don’t want the covered calls. He prefers ZEB-T right now because he wants all the price capture upside when the banks recover.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 2, 2020
ZWB-T vs. ZEB-T. If your view on the banks is sideways to down a little bit, then ZWB-T is the better holding but if you are bullish on the banks then you don’t want the covered calls. He prefers ZEB-T right now because he wants all the price capture upside when the banks recover.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 2, 2020
EFTs Selling Holdings. 95% of units bought and sold of an ETF involve one unit holder selling to another. Ultimately when the market maker is accumulating positions and does not want to hold them, they are forced to sell them. Other than this 5% of transactions, there is no impact on the underlying shares.
Show full opinionHide full opinionEFTs Selling Holdings. 95% of units bought and sold of an ETF involve one unit holder selling to another. Ultimately when the market maker is accumulating positions and does not want to hold them, they are forced to sell them. Other than this 5% of transactions, there is no impact on the underlying shares.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 2, 2020
The first oil futures contract today (the front month) is trading below the back month contract, which is 'contango'. The opposite case is 'backwardation'. Inside the ETF they own the front month and then on the transition day, about a week before, they sell the front month and buy the back month. If the front month is lower than the back month and the price of oil does not rise in the second month then you will lose that forward carry. If you don't understand these mechanics then you are at a serious disadvantage with this product.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThe first oil futures contract today (the front month) is trading below the back month contract, which is 'contango'. The opposite case is 'backwardation'. Inside the ETF they own the front month and then on the transition day, about a week before, they sell the front month and buy the back month. If the front month is lower than the back month and the price of oil does not rise in the second month then you will lose that forward carry. If you don't understand these mechanics then you are at a serious disadvantage with this product.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 2, 2020
ZLC-T & ZIC-T. You have a little bit of credit risk in corporate. When you want safety the best bet is government, not corporate as you get exposure to corporate earnings. Do you want it for the yield or for the protection? Don't sell either one at the moment.
Show full opinionHide full opinionZLC-T & ZIC-T. You have a little bit of credit risk in corporate. When you want safety the best bet is government, not corporate as you get exposure to corporate earnings. Do you want it for the yield or for the protection? Don't sell either one at the moment.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 2, 2020
ZLC-T & ZIC-T. You have a little bit of credit risk in corporate. When you want safety the best bet is government, not corporate as you get exposure to corporate earnings. Do you want it for the yield or for the protection? Don't sell either one at the moment.
Show full opinionHide full opinionZLC-T & ZIC-T. You have a little bit of credit risk in corporate. When you want safety the best bet is government, not corporate as you get exposure to corporate earnings. Do you want it for the yield or for the protection? Don't sell either one at the moment.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 2, 2020
Buffered ETFs – It seems they got dragged down with everything else. Go to the innovator website to see their videos. You are long the underlying, and then it buys a put and pays for it with a put at a lower strike and then a call at an upper strike. It is done at a zero cost to the ETF. The protection plays out over an entire calendar year. During an aggressive sell-off, you get a little short volatility. At the end of the year, if the market is within the range of buffered support you will not lose any money, but if it is lower like it is now, then you will have a loss. He likes the strategy and he uses them in private portfolios.
Show full opinionHide full opinionBuffered ETFs – It seems they got dragged down with everything else. Go to the innovator website to see their videos. You are long the underlying, and then it buys a put and pays for it with a put at a lower strike and then a call at an upper strike. It is done at a zero cost to the ETF. The protection plays out over an entire calendar year. During an aggressive sell-off, you get a little short volatility. At the end of the year, if the market is within the range of buffered support you will not lose any money, but if it is lower like it is now, then you will have a loss. He likes the strategy and he uses them in private portfolios.
PARTIAL BUY
PARTIAL BUY
April 2, 2020
It is a basket of emerging market countries including some challenged ones. We are going through a shock period now. They are government bonds trading in the local currencies so you have interest rate risk as well as currency risk. He has been adding to them over the last year and a half. You have to wait until the strength gets back into the emerging currencies. You get paid a good yield and the volatility is way less than emerging market volatility.
Show full opinionHide full opinionIt is a basket of emerging market countries including some challenged ones. We are going through a shock period now. They are government bonds trading in the local currencies so you have interest rate risk as well as currency risk. He has been adding to them over the last year and a half. You have to wait until the strength gets back into the emerging currencies. You get paid a good yield and the volatility is way less than emerging market volatility.
E.T.F.'s
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 2, 2020
Japanese tech gaming companies. He has not looked through it nor through the sector because it does not appeal to him to invest in longer term. There has been a lot of speculation on companies that benefit from people staying at home more. He can't tell you whether these companies in Japan are better than those here.
Show full opinionHide full opinionJapanese tech gaming companies. He has not looked through it nor through the sector because it does not appeal to him to invest in longer term. There has been a lot of speculation on companies that benefit from people staying at home more. He can't tell you whether these companies in Japan are better than those here.
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 2, 2020
ZQQ-T vs. TQQQ-N. The question is if you buy it with a currency hedge or the US version. If you are holding for the next few years, the Canadian dollar will be stronger down the road. He would prefer the ZQQ-T version but today is not the day to buy. In the next market decline he thinks some of the tech stocks will get hit.
ZQQ-T vs. TQQQ-N. The question is if you buy it with a currency hedge or the US version. If you are holding for the next few years, the Canadian dollar will be stronger down the road. He would prefer the ZQQ-T version but today is not the day to buy. In the next market decline he thinks some of the tech stocks will get hit.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 2, 2020
ZQQ-T vs. TQQQ-N. The question is if you buy it with a currency hedge or the US version. If you are holding for the next few years, the Canadian dollar will be stronger down the road. He would prefer the ZQQ-T version but today is not the day to buy. In the next market decline he thinks some of the tech stocks will get hit.
ZQQ-T vs. TQQQ-N. The question is if you buy it with a currency hedge or the US version. If you are holding for the next few years, the Canadian dollar will be stronger down the road. He would prefer the ZQQ-T version but today is not the day to buy. In the next market decline he thinks some of the tech stocks will get hit.
E.T.F.'s
Comments
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