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1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert)


Stock Opinions by Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

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COMMENT

He liked the speech last Friday by new U.S. Fed chief, Kevin Warsh. He did a good job guiding the market and not guiding it. He wants to be less transparent than the previous chief, not to be handcuffed. He expects more uncertainty and volatility, which is not a bad thing. There's coordinated interest in keeping the cost of financing US debt as low as possible. Expect the bond market vs. the US government in who wins, and will add volatility. The Fed should not hike, especially if there's another month of soft employment. Raising rates won't fix inflation, which is caused by AI capex, Congress' spending and the US-Iran war propelling oil prices. He sees a fiscal cliff coming, endangering growth in 2027-8. What matters are employment numbers and consumer spending.

DON'T BUY

He likes this space, but the stock has doubled in the past month, is overbought and trading at a high PE. VEEV needs to break out of the high a year ago--will it keep going? He expects some resistance which could lead to a correction. AI is a volatile space.

BUY
ETF to park cash for 6-12 months

Short-term corporate bonds. He likes the BNO series for tax efficiency.

TRADE

He targets $50-60 oil over the next decade. He's bullish for an oil trade, but is very concerned oil stocks will fall back down to historic norms.

RISKY
ZLB or XST protect from a market downturn?

ZLB holds low-volatile stocks in consumer (supermarkets), banks and lifecos. But ZLB is a little risky after the strong bank rally in the past year. XST focuses only on staples and groceries, which is more defensive, but it won;t necessarily rally when the market declines. For added protection, look at long-duration bonds.

COMMENT
ZLB or XST protect from a market downturn?

ZLB holds low-volatile stocks in consumer (supermarkets), banks and lifecos. But ZLB is a little risky after the strong bank rally in the past year. XST focuses only on staples and groceries, which is more defensive, but it won't necessarily rally when the market declines. For added protection, look at long-duration bonds.

COMMENT

It's had a run-up in the last year and needs to see some consolidation the coming year. Will bounce between $250-350 until there's a catalyst. CLS keeps beating and raising.

DON'T BUY

Loved it around $420 but is expensive now. No, thanks. He bought many shares around $400, then exited.

DON'T BUY

Disappointing. Each earnings, things worsen and targets keeping declining. Boyd needs a catalyst. Resistance is at $160 and has failed to break that.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

It reported a strong beat, but didn't make a new high. Definitely buy below $200, especially $160-170. It's a long-term buy, but the market is rejecting new highs after last week's report.

COMMENT
gas/oil prices

He compared crude oil futures and CPI US charts. When oil rises, so does CPI and both decline together. Now, the US-Iran is a maor inflationary factor. Add to that less globalization as Trump tariffs the world. The new US base inflation rate will be higher than the targeted 2.0%, like 2.5-3%. It will be tough to reach 2%. The street bets that there's a 51% chance that the Democrats will win the Senate, though likely the Dems will take the lower House without problem. He predicts Trump will stop Iran from having nuclear weapons, which could be ugly but temporary. He's looking at the the WAR and JEDI and XAR ETFs for defence as trades. In a lame desk presidency, Congress will spend less and slower economic growth. This is positive to manage the deficit, help interest rates to decline and for bonds, more than for stocks.

COMMENT
No huge market moves on dissolution of Canada-US trade talks.

He didn't expect any. It's relatively de minimis from the perspective of what it really means broadly for Canada. 

Most of it is still noise and bluster with Trump's belligerent style and how he deals with everybody, always. He takes it to an extreme, as far as it will go, and then he starts to bring it back. Question is, when does he start to bring it back? And do we want to bring it back? That's the unknown.

From a political standpoint, if you understand the importance of the US elections and Congress staying with the Republicans (increasingly seeming as though it won't), what can Trump do on the trade file to help with that? In line with that, he probably wants a deal of some sort before the elections.

COMMENT
Wouldn't Trump have wanted a trade deal well before the midterms?

If you're partisan, you already know which way you're going to vote. The moderate person makes up their mind in the last few weeks. And often, it depends on how they're feeling about things on the day they vote. That will determine where the swing vote will go.

He expects the back and forth to continue even into October.

WATCH
Reports this week. Expectations?

Expectations aren't sky-high. He's looking at this circular financing, and seeing if Nvidia is willing to share what this really means. While revenues are growing massively, it's not clear whether there's a huge profit yet in terms of this buildout.

COMMENT
Chip stocks down again today. Debt? Trade? Iran conflict? NVDA earnings?

It's everything. But today, it's magnified on chips. Tomorrow, it'll be something else. Three days from now, it could be back to the Middle East.

All those things are relevant. The thing that matters a lot, in the big picture, is earnings. Right now, earnings are still good and growing. Analysts keep revising estimates upwards. As long as that happens, corrections in equities will be small until the market says "Hmmm, maybe this isn't sustainable."

The US administration is trying to do something about interest rates and minimizing the cost of funding all this debt that will be endless for decades.

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