Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Market does not believe Saudi Arabia/OPEC oil cuts will be effective.
Investors worried that OPEC cuts will be undermined by Russia production etc.
Long term energy shortage & under investment a good trend, but worried about China slowdown. 
US jobs data last week indicating a divergence between US Fed policy & employment.
Best measure of economy is IRS tax collections. 
Not expecting a another US Fed rate hike (believes enough monetary constraint in markets).

Silicon Valley Bank included in this ETF (reason for share price weakness).
Would recommend buying in the coming months as higher interest rates rake their toll (job losses).
Other banks in ETF are strong.

Not aware of any Canadian ETF's that are pure A.I. vehicles. 
Would wait until product is launched instead of hedging with semi-A.I. ETFs.

Small caps in Canada are different than US counterparts (dominated by junior mining companies).
If US Fed cuts interest rates - good for junior minors.
Higher rates bad for Canadian small cap stocks.
Wait to see what direction US Federal Reserve will go.

Largest investment manager in the world.
Direct correlation b/w stock market and Blackrock share price.
If believe recession is comin, wait to buy. If not, good time to buy at current price level. 
Would recommend waiting to buy.

Unsure on safety of dividend. 
Bullish on E&P energy companies.
Current share price presenting good buying opportunity. 

Recent increase of S&P 500 hard to explain for Larry Berman (unsure why he has been wrong on bearish forecasts). 
Believes average stock isn't doing as well as major tech leaders (rising S&P 500 average).
Expecting markets to fall given underlying fundamentals in economy.
Companies will report lower earnings later this year, which will be reflected in stock market.
"Nifty 50" a good analogy to false sense of optimism in the markets today.

Believes US debt ceiling agreement is good for markets - however - is worried about long term government spending.
Expecting bond market interest rates to increase.
Congressional budget projection (10 years) of debt/spending not very good.
Believes idea of debt ceiling not good (creates artificial stress).
Root of debt ceiling problem is a bi-partisan issue. 
Strength in labor market is not helping US fed fight inflation.
Expecting a hard landing.

 

Good when inflation is high - bad when inflation low.
Not much interest rate sensitivity (good for elderly investors).
Variable returns with this product - not the best place to be for seniors.
Private credit markets better.

Good for when US Fed rates cuts interest rates.
Not a great spot for gold now.
Wait to buy.
Lots of short term noise that is bad for gold. 

A.I.(ChatGPT) recommendation on Active vs. Passive investing: it depends on what individual investing goals are.
ChatGPT recommends quarterly re-investment to average out cost basis.
Consult with your investment advisor before relying on any A.I. investment advice. 
No right or wrong answer. 

Believes Walmart best proxy for average consumer & economy.
Large retails (Walmart) will most likely start to pass on inflation to consumers.
Higher prices will impact average consumers and put pressure on economy. 
Is expecting inflation to be sticky (not going away).
Bottom 1/3rd of economy (living paycheck to paycheck) will be impacted by inflation the most.
 

Average decline in the underlying stocks not offset by extra divided yield.
Poor market is reason for falling share price.
Good product for defensive investors.
Good product for exposure to Canadian banks.

Wait to buy when recession hits bottom.
Good company, but not at this price.
Expecting better time to purchase shares. 

Currently owns shares in company.
Solid growth profile.
Would recommend buying.