Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

The federal election was just called for April 28. The tariffs are on everybody's mind and rightfully so. He's fiscally conservative and socially liberal. The Canadian dollar will be rewarded with a new government that's friendlier to business. It will be a close race. Mark Carney is a significant notch up from Trudeau, being the smartest world leader now in terms of the global economy having run two central banks. Who will negotiate the best long-term outcome for Canadians? Today's rally was naive; tariffs will have a great impact and be inflationary.

A new ETF that gives exposure to private credit markets, about 20% of the ETF. While not ideal, PRIV is a good start to get that private credit market, of which he is bullish. It's better to go directly to private credit markets.

Remember that a GIC and dividend stock have different levels of risk. Consider preferred shares and covered call ETFs like ZWC which gives broad exposure to Canadian dividends with a covered call overlay. ZWU, too, which is an alternative to fixed income, but gives equity market risk.

Remember that a GIC and dividend stock have different levels of risk. Consider preferred shares and covered call ETFs like ZWC which gives broad exposure to Canadian dividends with a covered call overlay. ZWU, too, which is an alternative to fixed income, but gives equity market risk.

With gold at $3,000, he wouldn't add to gold stocks, which have never been cheaper relative to the price of gold, given the fast-rising prices of mining gold. At $3,000, he would sell or buy dips. At $2,700-2,800, load the truck.

It shouldn't have that rating. It's a pure credit play, netting out the interest rate risk, and has a low standard deviation. But it pays a high yield, so maybe it get a higher risk rating. There's a little more risk here among ETFs, but not high risk like an equity.

It's important what account this is, registered or not, given tax implications. Likes it as a dividend play in the U.S. Make sure this is in a registered account.

It's important what account this is, registered or not, given tax implications. Likes it as a dividend play in the U.S. Make sure this is in a registered account.

Actually, incorrect. If the US economy is doing very well, the Fed will raise, not cut, interest rates. You can't rely on Fed policy to know what the broader bond market will do. BSV is short-term bonds and much more correlated than BNDX which is about the broader bond market.

Actually, incorrect. If the US economy is doing very well, the Fed will raise, not cut, interest rates. You can't rely on Fed policy to know what the broader bond market will do. BSV is short-term bonds and much more correlated than BNDX which is about the broader bond market.

We're likely oversold and will see no more than a dead-cat bounce today (stocks rallied on tariff reports). Based on two podcasts he recently heard, it sounds like Trump wants to shift from a taxed-work economy to a taxed-consumption economy largely through tariffs. He expects the tariffs to be far more aggressive than the market thinks. April 2 is a big day. Today's rally is misplaced. He likes the consumption tax for spending more, whereas the harder you work, you should pay less tax. Long-run, this policy will benefit the US, but be very disruptive in the short term, creating sticky inflation. He doesn't love Trump's style, but Larry thinks he needs to do this. The chart shows resistance at the 200-day moving average and a Fibonacci at 38.2%. The market has been toying at 5,750 on the S&P all day. If we can close above there, we could rally to 5,900. We'll see if we reach new highs above 5,900 after April 2, but he strongly doubts it. The tariffs will be much harder than the market expects and we'll see more choppy volatility, and likely fall below that 5,500 low. Bottom line: caution.

There's no expectation at all for any rate cuts. We've seen a marketplace that went from completely pricing out rate cuts, to the equity market weakness we've seen in the past few weeks and now pricing in 3 rate cuts over the next year. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said over the weekend that market volatility was not bothering the US administration at all in terms of policy.

We're facing a bumpy couple of months. Lots of policy uncertainty. Market's primed for a bit of an oversold rally, which started late last week and is continuing today. He expects it to continue through options expiry this week. But he doesn't see us going a whole lot higher, maybe another 1-2%.

No, because if they get overly easy right now, and inflation becomes a problem, that's going to be very difficult to roll back. The Fed's on hold, and he doesn't expect a move in either direction. The equity market would need to fall another 10% or so from here before consumer savings would be impacted and the Fed motivated to cut.

Still a lot of inflationary risks to the economy in front of us that the Fed just can't ignore -- tariffs, and tax cuts that Trump wants to put through.

What's important today is that they have a big conference this week. On a 1-year chart, you can see for the last 3-4 months that it's been chopping around, not doing much of anything. While that's not bearish, it's certainly not bullish.

To get to the next leg up, it'll take even better news than the market's expecting. DeepSeek indicated that maybe we don't need as many of these chips as we think we do. INTC is a turnaround story. Lots of uncertainty, and it'll take a lot to lift this stock and others.

Seeing a big rotation. Money coming out of big, overvalued names and into the broader stock market. A very positive development, but it's very early in that too. Not clear that the next bull market is here by any stretch of the imagination. 

There will be a better opportunity later this year or early in 2026.