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Stock Opinions by Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

COMMENT
Educational Segment. Jeremy Grantham, renowned value investor, put out a report arguing value should come back. The percentage of US companies trading at 10x revenues is not quite as high as the peak in 2000, but it is still extraordinarily high today. On real basis after inflation, the expensive stocks trading at 10x sales did no better than bonds. You have a market environment that is crazy today. Value should preform better than growth. Value is trading at 40% discount to where it traded historically. He is increasingly moving into the value stocks.
Unknown
BUY on WEAKNESS
Both innovation ETFs that have similar tech and innovation stocks. They track different indexes. In the next 15-20 years, the future of growth must be part of your portfolio. There is risk for a correction, especially with interest rates and less liquidity. Want to buy dips. Don't rush into them. Could have both in your portfolio, up to 5% each.
E.T.F.'s
BUY on WEAKNESS
Both innovation ETFs that have similar tech and innovation stocks. They track different indexes. In the next 15-20 years, the future of growth must be part of your portfolio. There is risk for a correction, especially with interest rates and less liquidity. Want to buy dips. Don't rush into them. Could have both in your portfolio, up to 5% each.
E.T.F.'s
DON'T BUY
The challenge is that they have an embedded link to the equity market. In that perspective, it becomes a hedge against inflation. If inflation is going up, which increases the interest rate, and the multiple of stocks will be affected. In this case, they will underperformance significantly. In this environment, he doesn't think this will work out.
E.T.F.'s
BUY
Caller asked for an infrastructure ETF. Gives you exposure to aspects of infrastructures like pipelines, utilities, and telcos. Aspects of infrastructures are there. Lots of different ways to look at infrastructure. PAVE gives you access to roads and infrastructure.
E.T.F.'s
BUY
Caller asked for an infrastructure ETF. Gives you exposure to aspects of infrastructures like pipelines, utilities, and telcos. Aspects of infrastructures are there. Lots of different ways to look at infrastructure. PAVE gives you access to roads and infrastructure.
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DON'T BUY
Over long periods of gas, there will be a natural decay in net asset value. Short term trading could pay off. Buy high and sell low. Natural gases are doing well right now, but he would prefer to play it through ETFs and equity exposure. Natural gas is a relative winner in the next few years. There has been significant under investments.
E.T.F.'s
BUY on WEAKNESS
China is the second largest economy in the world and will be first in the future. With the tilt towards equalization and communist philosophy. China has some growth challenges with bad demographics that is aging and shrinking. 1.4B people is still a huge number. Be mindful on trimming in rallies. 2-4% would be okay with up to 5% with the next few years. Focus on the China A shares, not the Hong Kong shares.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
Market outlook. There are signs of stagflation. Globally, inflation pressure is rising. There is a persistent uptick in inflation expectation and retail sales are wavering. The US economy may be in recession. The fiscal cliff with support being cut off could lead to spending stopping.
Unknown
COMMENT
Stimulus. If this fiscal cliff comes, unless there is a robust economy next year, control of congress will move. The progressive policies of Biden's administration will not go through. They are pushing through spending bills. There are some political fallouts from the reconciliation process.
Unknown
COMMENT
Federal reserve. The delta variant's R0 number, the transmission rate, has come down significantly in recent weeks. There is good news on this front. There is uncertainty around the debt ceiling and the financing needs of next year. It allows the fed to go slower. This makes inflation the biggest risk if it is not transitory.
Unknown
COMMENT
Afghanistan. This will be a political problem for Biden. It makes it harder for him to get other agendas to move forward with spending. It may be one of the reasons why the Feds have been cautious about unwinding and tapering.
Unknown
COMMENT
Hurricane Ida and oil. Bullish on energy from a trading position. Disruption of supply is a positive factor for prices. OPEC reaffirms there is more supply coming. There has been underinvestment and the market may be surprised as to how high oil prices can remain.
Unknown
COMMENT
US Job Report. It will be another couple reports before the jobs lost will be recovered. There is a labour shortage and investment in technology will be part and parcel of the transformation for those low end unskilled jobs.
Unknown
COMMENT
China will be the biggest economy in the world one day. You do want exposure to this big market. Weakness is an opportunity to add to this.
E.T.F.'s
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