
Chief Investment Officer, Partner at ETF Capital Management Inc.
Member since: Jul '02 · 5839 Opinions
ZLB holds low-volatile stocks in consumer (supermarkets), banks and lifecos. But ZLB is a little risky after the strong bank rally in the past year. XST focuses only on staples and groceries, which is more defensive, but it won;t necessarily rally when the market declines. For added protection, look at long-duration bonds.
ZLB holds low-volatile stocks in consumer (supermarkets), banks and lifecos. But ZLB is a little risky after the strong bank rally in the past year. XST focuses only on staples and groceries, which is more defensive, but it won't necessarily rally when the market declines. For added protection, look at long-duration bonds.
He compared crude oil futures and CPI US charts. When oil rises, so does CPI and both decline together. Now, the US-Iran is a maor inflationary factor. Add to that less globalization as Trump tariffs the world. The new US base inflation rate will be higher than the targeted 2.0%, like 2.5-3%. It will be tough to reach 2%. The street bets that there's a 51% chance that the Democrats will win the Senate, though likely the Dems will take the lower House without problem. He predicts Trump will stop Iran from having nuclear weapons, which could be ugly but temporary. He's looking at the the WAR and JEDI and XAR ETFs for defence as trades. In a lame desk presidency, Congress will spend less and slower economic growth. This is positive to manage the deficit, help interest rates to decline and for bonds, more than for stocks.
He didn't expect any. It's relatively de minimis from the perspective of what it really means broadly for Canada.
Most of it is still noise and bluster with Trump's belligerent style and how he deals with everybody, always. He takes it to an extreme, as far as it will go, and then he starts to bring it back. Question is, when does he start to bring it back? And do we want to bring it back? That's the unknown.
From a political standpoint, if you understand the importance of the US elections and Congress staying with the Republicans (increasingly seeming as though it won't), what can Trump do on the trade file to help with that? In line with that, he probably wants a deal of some sort before the elections.
If you're partisan, you already know which way you're going to vote. The moderate person makes up their mind in the last few weeks. And often, it depends on how they're feeling about things on the day they vote. That will determine where the swing vote will go.
He expects the back and forth to continue even into October.
It's everything. But today, it's magnified on chips. Tomorrow, it'll be something else. Three days from now, it could be back to the Middle East.
All those things are relevant. The thing that matters a lot, in the big picture, is earnings. Right now, earnings are still good and growing. Analysts keep revising estimates upwards. As long as that happens, corrections in equities will be small until the market says "Hmmm, maybe this isn't sustainable."
The US administration is trying to do something about interest rates and minimizing the cost of funding all this debt that will be endless for decades.