Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Thought this would be one of the first named to establish a degree of confidence in the marketplace. Now it will be one of the last chosen. Market is still very troubled by the deficit outlook, and there's still a lot of pressure on interest rates. Until we get some clarity on who's running Treasury, that will likely persist. Funding the deficit is going to be a really big thing. Is Trump going to have his thumb on the scale in terms of doing things in a way that's better for capital markets, and not necessarily for the greater good? Yet to be determined.

Looks as though Trump's really trying to shake things up with some of his appointments. The guy who's been appointed to run the Department of Energy is a climate-change skeptic. The Department of Government Efficiency that Musk is involved with seriously intends to clean things up this time. Last time, Trump didn't do any of that.

Trump seems to be appointing yes-men and yes-women. Anyone who's not going to do that hasn't got a chance.

Yes, though not all. There was a gap in the surprise we got on election night. Last week, markets came back and tested the upper range of the gap up. If it doesn't hold, we're going to go back and wipe out all the gains. From the series of higher highs and lows that we've seen for months and months, these November lows are pretty key.

By the time Trump's in the White House if these levels don't hold, particularly the November lows, look out below. He's not predicting, just saying we need to watch. If you're concerned, the early November lows would be the levels to manage your risk against.

See the Educational Segment.

It's a problem. Today, with over $37T of outstanding federal debt, at an average rate of a little over 3%, that's about $1T. The longer interest rates stay high, and the more inflation that's in the system to keep interest rates higher, the higher the cost of debt is going to be. The only way to get rid of it is to balance the budget and stop spending. That's not on the agenda at all.

Elon Musk is going to try to wipe out a few trillion dollars with his Department of Government Efficiencies, and Larry wishes him well. But what Larry learned when he did his due diligence on the government in Ottawa is that you can't take things away from people, because they get mad at you. That will be the biggest challenge. It will move the needle a little bit, but not enough, and certainly not enough to support all the tax cuts Trump wants.

Short answer is yes, he likes it. He was selling into strength a few months ago. Now he's looking to reload. On a 5-year chart, you can see the massive bottoming pattern. Won't see numbers like the previous highs again. Probably worth $125-150 over the next few years, if they can stimulate the consumer and the consumer responds.

Chinese consumers have tons of savings, so the potential is there. Buy on pullbacks. One of the best value retail names out there. But you have to be OK with China exposure.

His least favourite BMO ETF, terrible way to get exposure to US equities. Not because it's BMO or because of the structure, but because it's the Dow. DJIA is weighted by the size of a company's stock, so higher prices get more weight than lower. Terrible index. 

He'd much prefer an ETF that's in the S&P 500 or an equal-weight US market exposure.

One of very few growth stories in Canada. Huge success over the years. Trades at over 50x earnings. If you look at the chart between 2022-2023, the stock drew down in the neighbourhood of 20%. Challenge is that if we go through difficult market conditions, the high-multiple stocks correct more.

For years and years, has missed growth, revenue, and earnings numbers. Overcrowded. Fully priced. You could buy on pullbacks, but it could easily correct 25% in a matter of weeks or months.

Uranium is very likely the most important metal to transition from burning carbon to doing less of it in the future. He's hugely bullish on it, though he has no way to forecast the price. Germany turned off all their nuclear generators, and now they're burning more coal than they ever have in history. Lots of geopolitical risk, as a huge amount of uranium comes out of Russia and Kazakhstan. Trump making friends with Putin matters, as does the pace of the world building out nuclear.

Concerned that lots of good news already priced in. Be cautious shorter term. Have to see if people are comfortable with smaller nuclear units in their backyards. If you buy, buy on dips.

He did his deeper dive. He's going to sell on strength. Not willing to sell here, but he's not adding. Very discouraged by the company's recent moves.

A put/write covered call income-focused strategy using options can generate extra income. ZWB is covered call banks. If you're bullish on the market, ZWB will give you more upside than ZPAY. If you're conservative on the market, and you think there's going to be more volatility, ZPAY will do better for you.

Right now in his dividend fund, he owns ZPAY but not ZWB. 

A put/write covered call income-focused strategy using options can generate extra income. ZWB is covered call banks. If you're bullish on the market, ZWB will give you more upside than ZPAY. If you're conservative on the market, and you think there's going to be more volatility, ZPAY will do better for you.

Right now in his dividend fund, he owns ZPAY but not ZWB. 

Can't write covered calls on really short-term assets that don't have volatility. If there's no volatility, there's no options market. Not sure if they're doing that in this ETF, he'll have to unpack this a bit more. What he can see so far is that it's losing $$.

NVDA's upcoming earnings on Wednesday, after the bell.

The last of the behemoths to report. He's wildly bullish about everything AI, and he's terribly scared. Even during the recent election campaign, you'd see something online and you didn't know if it was real or not. Quantum is coming and it will be a disruptor, just as INTC was for others. Always something new coming along and that concerns him a bit.

NVDA is now the biggest weight in the NASDAQ, recently passed AAPL and MSFT. Let's look at the QQQ and draw trend lines along the lows and the highs. The last time we got to the upper channel was July. But we did the same thing last week. If NVDA doesn't beat and get people still excited about AI, odds are we're going to come back down into the range. Eventually (months or quarters), we'll come back to the bottom of the trend. That's the bigger risk here. 

Options market is saying it'll be a move up or down of $11. It'll either gap up above old highs, and hopefully hold. But if it doesn't, you have a big reversal coming to the downside and it could break the market. We talked about the gap after the election, and it would bring the NASDAQ back into the range that would close the gap in the S&P 500 and create bearish momentum with a failed breakout.

Let's cross our fingers that NVDA doesn't disappoint.

Why did Jay Powell cut rates? Trump's policies will be inflationary, stocks are at all-time highs and so forth. Core inflation and overall inflation remains higher than the Fed's targets. After the September 0.5% cut, the market priced in a 2% cut over the next year, but now it expects 3 x 0.25% cuts. For certain, Trump will initiate massive deficit spending, so a lot more debt will need to be financed. If Elon Musk can pull off a new Dept. of Government Efficiency, then maybe deficits in coming years could be better than expected. We'll see. Meanwhile, the massive treasury debt that needs to be financed will keep pressure on the bond market. Eventually, stocks will care about this. 

Both hold financials,but ZWB uses covered calls. HMAX has performed a little better and offers a little more yield. ZWB writes only half the securities, so it takes in less yield, but gets more upside capture. The price return is 11% on ZWB in the past year vs. HMAX's 6%, but the total return is close. However, ZWB pays you you more of a yield. nearly 7%, but gives less growth.

Both hold financials,but ZWB uses covered calls. HMAX has performed a little better and offers a little more yield. ZWB writes only half the securities, so it takes in less yield, but gets more upside capture. The price return is 11% on ZWB in the past year vs. HMAX's 6%, but the total return is close. However, ZWB pays you you more of a yield. nearly 7%, but gives less growth.