Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

It's going to be President TACO going forward. Look at the "deal" they got from China last week. All of a sudden, it's still 55% tariff rates. Most importantly, the market seems OK with the tariff thing at the moment. The next moment could change that. 

It's still a risk to the markets, but tariffs in the current package are inflationary. Trump needs tariffs to offset the costs of the "big, beautiful bill" that he wants and needs to pass. Still lots of uncertainties in front of us, but there's always stuff in front of us in terms of the market.

In an update to the dot plot, there's no expectation at all for a rate change. The question is will they choose to tilt a little bit at this meeting? Do they have enough information to say that they're leaning more towards an ease? Tightening is out of the picture. Even if inflation upticks for the next 6-12 months, extremely unlikely and difficult for the Fed (given the upcoming change in leadership, etc.) to want to raise rates.

The next move will be a rate cut, timing is uncertain. A lot will depend on the unfolding situation in the US labour market. Over the last month or so, we're starting to see weakness in the initial and continuing claims. These aren't worrisome by any stretch, but should be on the front burner now.

Prices are going up. In soft surveys of companies, 40% of companies said they're going to pass through some degree of pricing. Inventories that were built up in advance have, perhaps, already gone through the books for cost of good sold. There's more to come. To think there isn't, is a naive assumption.

It won't be a dramatic jump from 2.8% to 6%. But it'll creep into the mid-3% range. What happens now with oil prices is a real front-burner risk. When you have to spend an extra $20 a week to put gas in the tank, it really matters to the marginal consumer.

This isn't going to end until there's regime change in Iran, or Iran believes that Israel has the right to exist and doesn't further its ambition to erase Israel from the world. Unless that changes, which he can't see under any conditions, this is going to get worse before it gets better. He hates saying that, but it's his view.

This is an accounting item. There are 2 types of ROC, 1 good and 1 bad. The bad one is where the ETF provider is goosing up the return to be seen to be giving you more of a yield, but they end of giving you some of your own money back. That's not good. BMO doesn't do that.

To find out which one it is, you can call the ETF provider. Here's another way. Look at the underlying holdings. For example, assume they pay a dividend of 4%, there's an MER for the fund, and the option overlay generates a return of 2-3% a year. If you're being paid 6-7%, it's all good and you're getting it all. But if you're being paid 6%, but none of the underlying holdings pay 6% and there's no covered call overlay, then you're getting some of your own money back

This is an accounting item. There are 2 types of ROC, 1 good and 1 bad. The bad one is where the ETF provider is goosing up the return to be seen to be giving you more of a yield, but they end of giving you some of your own money back. That's not good. BMO doesn't do that.

To find out which one it is, you can call the ETF provider. Here's another way. Look at the underlying holdings. For example, assume they pay a dividend of 4%, there's an MER for the fund, and the option overlay generates a return of 2-3% a year. If you're being paid 6-7%, it's all good and you're getting it all. But if you're being paid 6%, but none of the underlying holdings pay 6% and there's no covered call overlay, then you're getting some of your own money back

Good, short-term bond for US dollars sitting in your account. If rates are going up, you want shorter-term bills because there's more turnover.

Good, short-term bond for US dollars sitting in your account. If rates are going up, you want shorter-term bills because there's more turnover.

This is a simple one for the US, and it plays the inverse of the S&P. There's one for the Canadian market, but he can't recall the ticker (it's part of the BetaPro Global X series, find it on their website).

Yes, it's a very safe vehicle. It's a good way to extract a bit more yield than from just a traditional money market account.

The challenge is that it's fully taxable. Instead you may want to look at some preferred securities, which give you a bit higher yield (bit more risk, but better tax treatment). Investors will need to do their own research on individual ETFs. Whatever the choice, it can be combined with ZST for safety of principal.

He's not an M&A guy. If you want a really good answer, ask somebody else ;)  A board will often reject something like this because they think it should be higher. And maybe a competitor will come along with a better offer.

Right now, if you believe that because of what's going on in the Middle East we might have persistently high oil prices for some period of time, then a lot of these energy drillers will benefit.

In the energy business, scale will be essential going forward.

He's not an M&A guy. If you want a really good answer, ask somebody else ;)  A board will often reject something like this because they think it should be higher. And maybe a competitor will come along with a better offer.

Right now, if you believe that because of what's going on in the Middle East we might have persistently high oil prices for some period of time, then a lot of these energy drillers will benefit.

In the energy business, scale will be essential going forward.

Typically, it's a bankruptcy, though not always. Sometimes a company will go private. Sometimes an ETF will get delisted, redeems the shares, and you get your money back.

Money will rush into these sectors when there are geopolitical risks out there. The themes around these types of events (especially geopolitical or weather) are things you want to rent, not own. They rise on a shock, not on sustained growth. They'll get very overvalued on speculation of more revenue coming into the sector, and then things calm down and they come back to earth.

This one's a fine vehicle, if you want to play the thematic sector for a trade. Probably holds international stocks, but largely American.