Stock Opinions by Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA - Stockchase Experts
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Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA @

On Stockchase since : Jul 2002

Chief Investment Officer, Partner at ETF Capital Management Inc.

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Stock Opinions by Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA - Stockchase Experts

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General Market Comment 

November 12, 2018

Market. Saudi Arabia is going to tighten the taps on oil to support oil prices. $50 +/- $10 is probably where we should be for the next 5 years. He is okay with trading US energy equities. When we hit the next recession, say in the 2020's, we will see oil in the $30s again. Europe is very fragile. Japan is not really tightening policy. Only the US is now raising interest rates and so the US dollar keeps getting stronger and stronger.
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Market. Saudi Arabia is going to tighten the taps on oil to support oil prices. $50 +/- $10 is probably where we should be for the next 5 years. He is okay with trading US energy equities. When we hit the next recession, say in the 2020's, we will see oil in the $30s again. Europe is very fragile. Japan is not really tightening policy. Only the US is now raising interest rates and so the US dollar keeps getting stronger and stronger.
Unknown
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
_N/A

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N/A
General Market Comment 

November 12, 2018

Long Bond Durations. Once interest rates start to fall these will make a lot more money compared to shorter term bonds. You can now tactically take positions in long term bonds. He is starting to sell TLT-T. He made one percent in less than a week. It is negatively correlated to equities.
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Long Bond Durations. Once interest rates start to fall these will make a lot more money compared to shorter term bonds. You can now tactically take positions in long term bonds. He is starting to sell TLT-T. He made one percent in less than a week. It is negatively correlated to equities.
Unknown
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
_N/A

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BUY
ZWU-T vs. ZWB-T. Rising interest rates are positive for revenues for banks, not profits necessarily. The yield curve is flattening and this is not good for banks. He prefers ZWU-t to ZWB-T.
E.T.F.'s
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ZWU-T vs. ZWB-T. Rising interest rates are positive for revenues for banks, not profits necessarily. The yield curve is flattening and this is not good for banks. He prefers ZWU-t to ZWB-T.
E.T.F.'s
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$12.710
Owned Owned
Yes

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DON'T BUY
ZWU-T vs. ZWB-T. Rising interest rates are positive for revenues for banks, not profits necessarily. The yield curve is flattening and this is not good for banks. He prefers ZWU-t to ZWB-T.
E.T.F.'s
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ZWU-T vs. ZWB-T. Rising interest rates are positive for revenues for banks, not profits necessarily. The yield curve is flattening and this is not good for banks. He prefers ZWU-t to ZWB-T.
E.T.F.'s
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$18.260
Owned Owned
No

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DON'T BUY
He likes it. He has used it in the past. One to three year corporate bonds. He has moved all his short term corporate bonds into floating rate notes, which will do better.
E.T.F.'s
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He likes it. He has used it in the past. One to three year corporate bonds. He has moved all his short term corporate bonds into floating rate notes, which will do better.
E.T.F.'s
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$77.680
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

November 12, 2018

Real Estate. Should one take profits or can you continue to take dividends. The answer involves risk. The Canadian REIT sector is tremendously overvalued. It is one of the last interest rate sensitive industries to turn over in rising interest rates. You could see 10-15% downturn sometime through to 2021. ZWU-T would give a better yield and he prefers this one.
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Real Estate. Should one take profits or can you continue to take dividends. The answer involves risk. The Canadian REIT sector is tremendously overvalued. It is one of the last interest rate sensitive industries to turn over in rising interest rates. You could see 10-15% downturn sometime through to 2021. ZWU-T would give a better yield and he prefers this one.
Unknown
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
General Market Comment 

November 12, 2018

Lithium. LIT-N is an ETF. It is the electrification of vehicles. It is an interesting sector. It is going to be a great long term investment.
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Lithium. LIT-N is an ETF. It is the electrification of vehicles. It is an interesting sector. It is going to be a great long term investment.
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT
It's only been trading a few days. Cyber security is going to be one of the most important industries for the next half century. It is a young industry so in an economic downturn, spending here is the first to get cut back.
E.T.F.'s
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It's only been trading a few days. Cyber security is going to be one of the most important industries for the next half century. It is a young industry so in an economic downturn, spending here is the first to get cut back.
E.T.F.'s
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$24.390
Owned Owned
Unknown

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N/A
General Market Comment 

November 12, 2018

Educational Segment. Controlling risk in portfolios. Beta is market risk. Buying a low cost ETF on the market index is a beta of 1. Get this when the outlook is clear. Otherwise he suggests ZUE-T, ZSP-T, ZLU-T, ZPW-T, ZWH-T. All but ZSP-T have a beta lower than 1.
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Educational Segment. Controlling risk in portfolios. Beta is market risk. Buying a low cost ETF on the market index is a beta of 1. Get this when the outlook is clear. Otherwise he suggests ZUE-T, ZSP-T, ZLU-T, ZPW-T, ZWH-T. All but ZSP-T have a beta lower than 1.
Unknown
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
_N/A

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N/A
General Market Comment 

November 5, 2018

Market. He expects consensus in the US mid-terms where the house goes to the democrats. The republicans may gain a couple of seats in the congress. That may be the best case scenario. If the democrats sweep both that would be the worst case. Markets might get excited about another tax cut for the middle class. If tax reform is pushed back it might be a kind of a yawn. After that focus turns back onto China and trade. It could take years to reach an agreement. The theft of intellectual property is not easy to solve. We are late in the investment cycle and we are going to see the European bank stop buying 10 year bonds. There will be credit stress there next year.
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Market. He expects consensus in the US mid-terms where the house goes to the democrats. The republicans may gain a couple of seats in the congress. That may be the best case scenario. If the democrats sweep both that would be the worst case. Markets might get excited about another tax cut for the middle class. If tax reform is pushed back it might be a kind of a yawn. After that focus turns back onto China and trade. It could take years to reach an agreement. The theft of intellectual property is not easy to solve. We are late in the investment cycle and we are going to see the European bank stop buying 10 year bonds. There will be credit stress there next year.
Unknown
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

November 5, 2018

Recession. When is it coming? Caller sites Larry predicting it later and later from 2017 through 2020. The average bull market is 5 years so that long after 2009 a correction seemed increasingly predictable. Since then it has a lot to do with what has happened with the interest market. An inverted yield curve is the best foreshadowing of a recession. Mid-2019 is his best prediction of when the inversion will come. Nobody knows. This is the longest expansion in time that we have had a bull market without recession in history.
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Recession. When is it coming? Caller sites Larry predicting it later and later from 2017 through 2020. The average bull market is 5 years so that long after 2009 a correction seemed increasingly predictable. Since then it has a lot to do with what has happened with the interest market. An inverted yield curve is the best foreshadowing of a recession. Mid-2019 is his best prediction of when the inversion will come. Nobody knows. This is the longest expansion in time that we have had a bull market without recession in history.
Unknown
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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COMMENT
They are integrated in the core part of global growth. The global growth story is slowing down. Growth over the last decade has been all fueled by debt. It does not mean we may not get a cyclical trade as China steps on the gas. Maybe you can get a trading rally. Analysts are 80% positive. (Analysts’ price target is $40.17)
precious metals
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They are integrated in the core part of global growth. The global growth story is slowing down. Growth over the last decade has been all fueled by debt. It does not mean we may not get a cyclical trade as China steps on the gas. Maybe you can get a trading rally. Analysts are 80% positive. (Analysts’ price target is $40.17)
precious metals
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$27.740
Owned Owned
No

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DON'T BUY
General Market Comment 

November 5, 2018

ETFs in the Healthcare space for Canadian Healthcare Space. Larry recommends a US currency hedged covered call healthcare ETF.

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ETFs in the Healthcare space for Canadian Healthcare Space. Larry recommends a US currency hedged covered call healthcare ETF.

Unknown
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

November 5, 2018

If you own something that you owned for a while, you should think about it as: Is there something out there that I could own that would be similar in risk that will do much better? He has been nibbling here. He used ZPT-T for preferreds. ZWU-T has a similar risk and gives you a nice dividend.
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If you own something that you owned for a while, you should think about it as: Is there something out there that I could own that would be similar in risk that will do much better? He has been nibbling here. He used ZPT-T for preferreds. ZWU-T has a similar risk and gives you a nice dividend.
Unknown
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY
General Market Comment 

November 5, 2018

Gold stocks. are trading at about a 35 year low. In the future they may do better than other equities. He is not a gold bug but he would play US and Canadian gold ETFs. He is overweight in gold right now.
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Gold stocks. are trading at about a 35 year low. In the future they may do better than other equities. He is not a gold bug but he would play US and Canadian gold ETFs. He is overweight in gold right now.
Unknown
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
Yes

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