Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

US Fed's Jerome Powell has signified he will start to cut interest rates and he's very dependent on data. There's a slowdown in labour demand, but the borders are shut to prevent new labour from entering. Super-core CPI is Powell's key indicator, at 3.2% now. But there are many people on the Fed board and some fracturing of opinion. It's possible a new Fed chair will be more malleable to the president, but he frets over that.   

Is the best money-market-type ETF. ZST buys corporate bonds under and gets a premium over the typical money market fund. He likes the enhanced yield. In a taxable account, the gains are income. So, there isn't a safe ETF out there.

If tech falls, say 20%, a low vol will fall 10% roughly. Likes XMV. Top holdings are TD, National Bank, BNS and Royal. Lots of banks. Staples and consumer staples are also low-vol.

He thinks there is a possibly pullback in the S&P to 6,200, give or take 100. ZSP protects a lot of downside risk in a correction, yet still gives some upside.

If interest rates rise, you want more of MFT, because you get more of the current coupon and less interest rate risk. If rates fall, you don't want this.

Tariffs. A lot of their products face them. This is why shares have fallen this year, but he is buying it at current low levels. It could take a while for this to work.

After Jerome Powell's remarks last Friday, stocks ripped, but not bonds. We didn't learn much from his speech, except that September is on the table. Futures indicate 5 rate cuts from now to the end of 2026. He expects Powell to cut 0.25% in September with the market pricing that by 80-85%. It was slightly less than before Powell spoke. Canadian futures indicate 1 more 0.25% cut by mid-2026. Therefore, the US will cut more aggressively and catch up to Canada. Canada is way structurally weaker than the US, and the CAD lacks a catalyst to rally. Normally, the CAD would rally a lot. Maybe the CAD reaches 75 cents, unless there is a rocky Sept-Oct and trade negotiations get rocky. Those with lots of USD exposure in ETFs should consider moving that into a hedged version should the CAD drift to 70 cents in the next few months. 

Beware of online scammers. Someone is perpetuated a fraud under his name, promising returns and such. He would never do that on social media, except offering advice on YouTube. The Fed this week: What will they do about the future? Trump wants to take away their independence. Many expect the Fed to open the door towards a rate cut. He's not sure, expecting them to be more hawkish and September will be a coin flip based on data (job losses).

They report Aug. 27. AI will remain a tailwind for productivity and economic growth. However, he liked NVDA when it was below $90 last April, but not at twice the price. It costs too much now, though he likes the company. Technically, it needs to fall to at least $150, in the range of $125-150.

Gives you international exposure in stocks by 80% with 20% bonds. Problem is that 20% in stocks and bonds exposure, while Canada is only 3% of the world. You need more tech exposure, like a tech ETF, to top you off.

He loves alternative strategies, because these funds take no or little direct market risk. Instead, they pick the best ideas and go long, with leverage, then short some names to create the leverage of names they don't like. Few managers are good at this. A manager called AQR, in Connecticut, is one he uses and likes. He loves multi-strategy funds that will be huge in coming decades.

A go-to name in silver, that many hedge funds like. But the chart's past 5 years have done nothing, a range-trader with some growth. Not a long-term stock, but a commodity trade. It has a little more room to rise, but only to $8.50. He wants to sell it again now.

It's the QQQ with a covered call. If you're bullish tech, just own the Qs. It you want yield, QYLD is good, but don't expect growth. Can be volatile and choppy.

Population growth is based on net immigration and births minus deaths. 20 years ago, Washington forecast a 1.4% productivity rate. The actual growth to 2025 is 1.1%. We need a lot of growth to climb out of this current debt. We're creating jobs, wonderful, but there's a lot of talk of AI to steepen productivity. Getting a liberal arts degree won't cut it in terms of where the growth will be in the future. Rather, the economy needs people trained in STEM research, those who can contribute to AI.