Stock Opinions by Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA - Stockchase Experts
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Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

On Stockchase since : Jul 2002

Chief Investment Officer, Partner at ETF Capital Management Inc.

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Stock Opinions by Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA - Stockchase Experts

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

April 22, 2019

Geopolitical dangers have never been higher, given the horrific Sri Lankan terrorist attacks over the weekend, and Trump continues to restrict the flow of Iranian oil. Geopolitics does impact world markets....MSFT and Intel report this week and have both broken to new highs. They will indicate whether the broader rally will continue. The S&P and TSX hit record highs, but he doesn't see a strong economic backdrop. Half of Canadians are a few bucks away from insolvency. He feels the economy is fundamentally weak. We're in for potentially decades of low interest rates.
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Geopolitical dangers have never been higher, given the horrific Sri Lankan terrorist attacks over the weekend, and Trump continues to restrict the flow of Iranian oil. Geopolitics does impact world markets....MSFT and Intel report this week and have both broken to new highs. They will indicate whether the broader rally will continue. The S&P and TSX hit record highs, but he doesn't see a strong economic backdrop. Half of Canadians are a few bucks away from insolvency. He feels the economy is fundamentally weak. We're in for potentially decades of low interest rates.
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

April 22, 2019

How are daily stock fluctuations derived? A company's fundamentals. But also behaviour is having more and more an impact with extreme pessimism and extreme optimism that rarely reflects true value. Sometimes this means the noise (headlines) of the day. Also, algorithms are scanning headlines. Sharp fluctuations are becoming the norm.
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How are daily stock fluctuations derived? A company's fundamentals. But also behaviour is having more and more an impact with extreme pessimism and extreme optimism that rarely reflects true value. Sometimes this means the noise (headlines) of the day. Also, algorithms are scanning headlines. Sharp fluctuations are becoming the norm.
Unknown
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY on WEAKNESS
An electronic payments ETF. He loves this space; the future is electronic money without paper money. That said, look at valuation. This space is sensitive to the economic cycle and can underperform during a market downturn. Loves this long-term, but buy during pullbacks.
Financial Services
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An electronic payments ETF. He loves this space; the future is electronic money without paper money. That said, look at valuation. This space is sensitive to the economic cycle and can underperform during a market downturn. Loves this long-term, but buy during pullbacks.
Financial Services
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$43.100
Owned Owned
Unknown

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PARTIAL SELL
Alerian MLP ETF(AMLP-N) 

April 22, 2019

This is highly correlated to the energy sector. He owns a lot of this. This could hit $11 if the oil price continues to surge. He's been accumulating this at lower prices and will reduce his exposure towards that level--and doesn't expect the price to break out. Warning: this is a very sensitive sector, meaning it will underperform during a market pullback. This stock is more a trade than an investment.
E.T.F.'s
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This is highly correlated to the energy sector. He owns a lot of this. This could hit $11 if the oil price continues to surge. He's been accumulating this at lower prices and will reduce his exposure towards that level--and doesn't expect the price to break out. Warning: this is a very sensitive sector, meaning it will underperform during a market pullback. This stock is more a trade than an investment.
E.T.F.'s
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$10.070
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
Consumer staples vs. consumer cyclicals In a downturn, you don't need to go to a restaurant, but you still need to eat. So, you will spend more at the grocers (perhaps a discount chain) than the restos. This doesn't necessarily mean that SXT will go up, but more money will flow into defensives vs. the cyclicals. XST is a place to hide, but not a guarantee for a rising stock price.
E.T.F.'s
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Consumer staples vs. consumer cyclicals In a downturn, you don't need to go to a restaurant, but you still need to eat. So, you will spend more at the grocers (perhaps a discount chain) than the restos. This doesn't necessarily mean that SXT will go up, but more money will flow into defensives vs. the cyclicals. XST is a place to hide, but not a guarantee for a rising stock price.
E.T.F.'s
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$61.900
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Kirkland Lake Gold(KL-T) 

April 22, 2019

He loves gold as an asset class, and he expects a 20% swing upward in 6-12 months. KL has performed well, but he prefers diversification instead of a specific gold stock, like the ZGD-T ETF.
precious metals
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He loves gold as an asset class, and he expects a 20% swing upward in 6-12 months. KL has performed well, but he prefers diversification instead of a specific gold stock, like the ZGD-T ETF.
precious metals
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$41.820
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY
As a registered investment We're late in the cycle and yield curves are starting to invert, so he doesn't like the banks. The banks won't break out, so he's underweight banks in Canada or America. That said, don't sell them all, because the dividends are good.
E.T.F.'s
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As a registered investment We're late in the cycle and yield curves are starting to invert, so he doesn't like the banks. The banks won't break out, so he's underweight banks in Canada or America. That said, don't sell them all, because the dividends are good.
E.T.F.'s
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$29.380
Owned Owned
No

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DON'T BUY
An American bank ETF Warnign: there's only a minor dividend on American banks, and this space is not a time now for new money.
E.T.F.'s
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An American bank ETF Warnign: there's only a minor dividend on American banks, and this space is not a time now for new money.
E.T.F.'s
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$26.600
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

April 22, 2019

Educational Segment. The price of oil Oil prices are moving up in Canada and America and rubbing against the 200-day average. Oil prices move in two ways. One is the supply push; the other is demand pull. When prices rise because supply is constrained, that's supply push, which is not a good way for prices to rise. The reason is ultimately economic output is going down--we're producing less. This is happening now in Alberta. The bullish move is the demand pull, where a growing economy propels rising prices rise which increases output to meet supply. This is good growth, but we're not seeing that now. Instead, we are in supply push. Sure, the price can still break-out, but there's resistance and that rise won't be sustainable. He'd rather sell into that rally.He doubts that the oil price will break out and he would sell during a rally. Now, it's a short-term rally driven by traders and speculators. He doesn't see $100 oil coming. Canadian oil stocks, though, are undervalued and need a demand increase.
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Educational Segment. The price of oil Oil prices are moving up in Canada and America and rubbing against the 200-day average. Oil prices move in two ways. One is the supply push; the other is demand pull. When prices rise because supply is constrained, that's supply push, which is not a good way for prices to rise. The reason is ultimately economic output is going down--we're producing less. This is happening now in Alberta. The bullish move is the demand pull, where a growing economy propels rising prices rise which increases output to meet supply. This is good growth, but we're not seeing that now. Instead, we are in supply push. Sure, the price can still break-out, but there's resistance and that rise won't be sustainable. He'd rather sell into that rally.He doubts that the oil price will break out and he would sell during a rally. Now, it's a short-term rally driven by traders and speculators. He doesn't see $100 oil coming. Canadian oil stocks, though, are undervalued and need a demand increase.
Unknown
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
KL-T He loves gold as an asset class, and he expects a 20% swing upward in 6-12 months. KL has performed well, but he prefers diversification instead of a specific gold stock, like the ZGD-T ETF.
E.T.F.'s
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KL-T He loves gold as an asset class, and he expects a 20% swing upward in 6-12 months. KL has performed well, but he prefers diversification instead of a specific gold stock, like the ZGD-T ETF.
E.T.F.'s
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$42.620
Owned Owned
Unknown

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N/A
General Market Comment 

April 15, 2019

Market. He wanted to wear a red gold shirt! Everybody he golfed with over the last 6 years said Tiger would not come back. The US banks have had a choppy set of results. JPM-N had positive results. GS-N had some issues on the trading side. We are very late on the cycle. You don’t want to be overweight on the banks. Financial services don’t do well if the next phase of the cycle is slow down and eventual recession. The only question is when, but you won’t see it in the data. When volatility is up, banks should be doing better, but it means that GS-N may have made some bad bets.
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Market. He wanted to wear a red gold shirt! Everybody he golfed with over the last 6 years said Tiger would not come back. The US banks have had a choppy set of results. JPM-N had positive results. GS-N had some issues on the trading side. We are very late on the cycle. You don’t want to be overweight on the banks. Financial services don’t do well if the next phase of the cycle is slow down and eventual recession. The only question is when, but you won’t see it in the data. When volatility is up, banks should be doing better, but it means that GS-N may have made some bad bets.
Unknown
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
_N/A

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BUY
It's an enhanced money market fund. The coupon distribution is actually higher than the yield to maturity so the price comes down. The price stabilized and he started buying it. There are no capital gains, however.
E.T.F.'s
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It's an enhanced money market fund. The coupon distribution is actually higher than the yield to maturity so the price comes down. The price stabilized and he started buying it. There are no capital gains, however.
E.T.F.'s
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$51.130
Owned Owned
Yes

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DON'T BUY
General Market Comment 

April 15, 2019

REITs in Canada. The yield is attractive but they are risky at the moment. When we go into a slow down, real estate is one of the last sectors to be hit. Money loves the yield. But ultimately when the economy turns down and rents are at risk, these turn down.
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REITs in Canada. The yield is attractive but they are risky at the moment. When we go into a slow down, real estate is one of the last sectors to be hit. Money loves the yield. But ultimately when the economy turns down and rents are at risk, these turn down.
Unknown
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY
General Market Comment 

April 15, 2019

Bonds. VAB-T, ZAG-T, XBB-T. There is great diversification but you have a lot of credit. He would buy a broad government bond ETF at this point.
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Bonds. VAB-T, ZAG-T, XBB-T. There is great diversification but you have a lot of credit. He would buy a broad government bond ETF at this point.
Unknown
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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WEAK BUY
ZWA-T vs. ZWS-T. ZWA-T is the Dow 30 with a covered call overlay. ZWS-T is a broader ETF with 50 holdings, much more diversified and just the DOW index and it also has a covered call overlay. He would prefer ZWS-T. He is looking at buying a lot more of this one.
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ZWA-T vs. ZWS-T. ZWA-T is the Dow 30 with a covered call overlay. ZWS-T is a broader ETF with 50 holdings, much more diversified and just the DOW index and it also has a covered call overlay. He would prefer ZWS-T. He is looking at buying a lot more of this one.
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$23.160
Owned Owned
Unknown

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