Stock Opinions by Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA - Stockchase Experts
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Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA @

On Stockchase since : Jul 2002

Chief Investment Officer, Partner at ETF Capital Management Inc.

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Stock Opinions by Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA - Stockchase Experts

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General Market Comment 

January 21, 2019

Market. Almost half of Canadians are very close to insolvency. Larry started working when he was 9 years old so he knows all about this. His family had massive credit card debts. The world is extremely fragile from a growth perspective. Governments need to help the bottom half. He believes the first $40k of income should not be taxable. There are political solutions for hard issues like this that do not put the owness on the bank of Canada. He believes Trump will be impeached. He believes it will be disruptive. He likes earnings season so far in the US. Banks missed on earnings but the market handled it very well. Markets should be okay for a couple of weeks. He was aggressively selling into last week's strength and he thinks there is a bear market coming and we are heading into a recession. China has been running a 15% deficit for the last 15 years. It is the biggest bubble building in history. Interest rates cannot rise very much as we cannot afford it.
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Market. Almost half of Canadians are very close to insolvency. Larry started working when he was 9 years old so he knows all about this. His family had massive credit card debts. The world is extremely fragile from a growth perspective. Governments need to help the bottom half. He believes the first $40k of income should not be taxable. There are political solutions for hard issues like this that do not put the owness on the bank of Canada. He believes Trump will be impeached. He believes it will be disruptive. He likes earnings season so far in the US. Banks missed on earnings but the market handled it very well. Markets should be okay for a couple of weeks. He was aggressively selling into last week's strength and he thinks there is a bear market coming and we are heading into a recession. China has been running a 15% deficit for the last 15 years. It is the biggest bubble building in history. Interest rates cannot rise very much as we cannot afford it.
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

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$0.000
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General Market Comment 

January 21, 2019

Educational Segment. Horizons' ETFs. The active ETFs' space has really taken off. Total return ETFs have done well also. Horizons has 33 actively managed ETFs. They started with fixed income. Active ETF MERs are 10 basis points more than passive ETFs. Their active ETFs are primarily in the yield space. They have a suite of ETFs with a unique Total Return Swap. Beta is important to a portfolio. They use derivatives that give them the return of the index on a totally dividend-reinvested basis every day. The ETFs generate a capital gain. These ETFs don't add any benefit to a registered account.
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Educational Segment. Horizons' ETFs. The active ETFs' space has really taken off. Total return ETFs have done well also. Horizons has 33 actively managed ETFs. They started with fixed income. Active ETF MERs are 10 basis points more than passive ETFs. Their active ETFs are primarily in the yield space. They have a suite of ETFs with a unique Total Return Swap. Beta is important to a portfolio. They use derivatives that give them the return of the index on a totally dividend-reinvested basis every day. The ETFs generate a capital gain. These ETFs don't add any benefit to a registered account.
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

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BUY on WEAKNESS
2/3rds of the stocks are Israeli stocks. Israel is the original hub of the chip. He loves the play as a long term theme. During periods of weakness it is something you accumulate. He is looking to add it to growth portfolios over the next few years.
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2/3rds of the stocks are Israeli stocks. Israel is the original hub of the chip. He loves the play as a long term theme. During periods of weakness it is something you accumulate. He is looking to add it to growth portfolios over the next few years.
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

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General Market Comment 

January 21, 2019

Put Write vs. Covered Call strategies. Put write is the most defensive strategy. Buying long is the most aggressive. If you think there is limited upside you used covered calls. A put strategy is more defensive. You get yield off the market.
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Put Write vs. Covered Call strategies. Put write is the most defensive strategy. Buying long is the most aggressive. If you think there is limited upside you used covered calls. A put strategy is more defensive. You get yield off the market.
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

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COMMENT
BMO US Put Write ETF(ZPW-T) 

January 21, 2019

Its MER includes the MER of the underlying ETFs. Occasionally they get put some of the stocks and then they sell the stock and re-put the stock. You get a distribution when this happens as a return of capital. Volatility determines how many of their stocks they get put and have to sell.
E.T.F.'s
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Its MER includes the MER of the underlying ETFs. Occasionally they get put some of the stocks and then they sell the stock and re-put the stock. You get a distribution when this happens as a return of capital. Volatility determines how many of their stocks they get put and have to sell.
E.T.F.'s
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

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$17.120
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General Market Comment 

January 21, 2019

Alternative asset classes. Many stocks go up and down together. Gold and commodities tend to be an alternative asset class. This is a way to generate gains when things are going to be difficult.
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Alternative asset classes. Many stocks go up and down together. Gold and commodities tend to be an alternative asset class. This is a way to generate gains when things are going to be difficult.
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Larry Berman CF

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General Market Comment 

January 21, 2019

In an average recession earnings tend to drop 20%. The S&P should go down to 1500, the breakout of 2000 high.
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In an average recession earnings tend to drop 20%. The S&P should go down to 1500, the breakout of 2000 high.
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

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General Market Comment 

January 14, 2019

Market. The ZZZB-T ETF was launched today and Larry opened the TSX in celebration. This trade war with China started a year ago. Emerging markets have been under-performing until the last couple of months and now are reacting to anticipation of good news. This will motivate the US and China but will not resolve the theft of IP. Ultimately he thinks the recession is still coming. We had a lot of downgrades in earnings projections and that was why we had a down turn in December. Earnings will not turn down yet but will in the future. Except for the effect of tax cuts, earnings are not growing. The S&P is around fair value and so should stabilize for a while.
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Market. The ZZZB-T ETF was launched today and Larry opened the TSX in celebration. This trade war with China started a year ago. Emerging markets have been under-performing until the last couple of months and now are reacting to anticipation of good news. This will motivate the US and China but will not resolve the theft of IP. Ultimately he thinks the recession is still coming. We had a lot of downgrades in earnings projections and that was why we had a down turn in December. Earnings will not turn down yet but will in the future. Except for the effect of tax cuts, earnings are not growing. The S&P is around fair value and so should stabilize for a while.
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

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COMMENT
XUS-T Vs. XSP-T. They are S&P exposure, hedged and unhedged. It is a currency call. He thinks the Canadian $ will weaken into the next recession as it has in past recessions. $0.70 is within reach. The closer to 78 cents, you want that hedging. He will add back below that to his US exposure and it will be unhedged.
E.T.F.'s
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XUS-T Vs. XSP-T. They are S&P exposure, hedged and unhedged. It is a currency call. He thinks the Canadian $ will weaken into the next recession as it has in past recessions. $0.70 is within reach. The closer to 78 cents, you want that hedging. He will add back below that to his US exposure and it will be unhedged.
E.T.F.'s
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

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$42.650
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COMMENT
XUS-T Vs. XSP-T. They are S&P exposure, hedged and unhedged. It is a currency call. He thinks the Canadian $ will weaken into the next recession as it has in past recessions. $0.70 is within reach. The closer to 78 cents, you want that hedging. He will add back below that to his US exposure and it will be unhedged.
E.T.F.'s
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XUS-T Vs. XSP-T. They are S&P exposure, hedged and unhedged. It is a currency call. He thinks the Canadian $ will weaken into the next recession as it has in past recessions. $0.70 is within reach. The closer to 78 cents, you want that hedging. He will add back below that to his US exposure and it will be unhedged.
E.T.F.'s
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

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$28.830
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COMMENT

It is smaller oil and gas plays. Junior oils. 25% Canada and the rest is US. Compared to US large cap ETFs like IYE-N: As the price of oil is going down, both fell but small caps fell more than larger caps. He is okay with smaller caps. It is not investible yet.

E.T.F.'s
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It is smaller oil and gas plays. Junior oils. 25% Canada and the rest is US. Compared to US large cap ETFs like IYE-N: As the price of oil is going down, both fell but small caps fell more than larger caps. He is okay with smaller caps. It is not investible yet.

E.T.F.'s
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

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STRONG BUY
ZZZD-T plays the ZWU-T, ZWC-T and so on so it is actively managed, aiming for a 4% yield See today's educational segment.
E.T.F.'s
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ZZZD-T plays the ZWU-T, ZWC-T and so on so it is actively managed, aiming for a 4% yield See today's educational segment.
E.T.F.'s
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$30.070
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Yes

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General Market Comment 

January 14, 2019

Number one Black Swan Worry. A black swan is supposed to be something no one is thinking about. Trump's end of term would be one. But over the last few years we doubled the debt in the world without creating growth. The US and China have horrible fiscal positions – Japan also. This is the catalyst for bad economics over the next few years. This would be the Black Swan: a credit problem.
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Number one Black Swan Worry. A black swan is supposed to be something no one is thinking about. Trump's end of term would be one. But over the last few years we doubled the debt in the world without creating growth. The US and China have horrible fiscal positions – Japan also. This is the catalyst for bad economics over the next few years. This would be the Black Swan: a credit problem.
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

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BUY
It is the healthcare leaders strategy ETF, actively managed with a covered call overlay. He sees a yield of about 9% but the holdings yield 3-4% so the rest is from the options strategy. The yield is sustainable if the managers know what they are doing. He likes the exposure and what they are trying to do.
E.T.F.'s
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It is the healthcare leaders strategy ETF, actively managed with a covered call overlay. He sees a yield of about 9% but the holdings yield 3-4% so the rest is from the options strategy. The yield is sustainable if the managers know what they are doing. He likes the exposure and what they are trying to do.
E.T.F.'s
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

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$7.820
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DON'T BUY
Amazon.com(AMZN-Q) 

January 14, 2019

Their core business of boxing and shipping stuff is not making money. This is not why you buy AMZN-Q. It is because they are a disruptor. Buy it when it gets beaten silly. He would not touch it today. Below $1000 it might be a buy.
specialty stores
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Their core business of boxing and shipping stuff is not making money. This is not why you buy AMZN-Q. It is because they are a disruptor. Buy it when it gets beaten silly. He would not touch it today. Below $1000 it might be a buy.
specialty stores
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$1617.210
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Unknown

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