Stock Opinions by Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA - Stockchase Experts
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Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA @

On Stockchase since : Jul 2002

Chief Investment Officer, Partner at ETF Capital Management Inc.

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Stock Opinions by Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA - Stockchase Experts

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General Market Comment 

December 10, 2018

Market. BREXIT: The UK cannot afford a no-deal exit but like all of these things, it will go down to the wire. There is uncertainty and markets don’t like it. You want to be long the British Pound. With China there is the arrest of the CEO of a major telecom company from China. There is no solution to the trade issue and this is just more of the problem. The Fed will raise rates in the US on the 19th. The global economy is still strong. The S&P is undercutting the October low. Some think we are one foot into the recession starting. Perhaps the lows will be broken in February.
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Market. BREXIT: The UK cannot afford a no-deal exit but like all of these things, it will go down to the wire. There is uncertainty and markets don’t like it. You want to be long the British Pound. With China there is the arrest of the CEO of a major telecom company from China. There is no solution to the trade issue and this is just more of the problem. The Fed will raise rates in the US on the 19th. The global economy is still strong. The S&P is undercutting the October low. Some think we are one foot into the recession starting. Perhaps the lows will be broken in February.
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
_N/A

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SELL
Floating Rate notes. It is an ETF representing floating rate notes. These are something that will do well in a rising rate environment. We will see what rate move the Fed does next week but he expects it Dovish. You will get two Fed rate hikes but the market is predicting 4. He is looking to reduce his positions into other areas.
E.T.F.'s
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Floating Rate notes. It is an ETF representing floating rate notes. These are something that will do well in a rising rate environment. We will see what rate move the Fed does next week but he expects it Dovish. You will get two Fed rate hikes but the market is predicting 4. He is looking to reduce his positions into other areas.
E.T.F.'s
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$30.370
Owned Owned
Yes

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PARTIAL SELL
It is the best way to play Europe if you need yield. The market should stabilize and bounce into the first quarter, but the bear market is well underway. You should diversify part into the US and into utilities.
E.T.F.'s
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It is the best way to play Europe if you need yield. The market should stabilize and bounce into the first quarter, but the bear market is well underway. You should diversify part into the US and into utilities.
E.T.F.'s
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$18.700
Owned Owned
Unknown

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PARTIAL SELL
General Market Comment 

December 10, 2018

RESET Preferreds. Now the expectation is that the next BOC move could be a cut be he doubts that. We will likely get two raises into next year, and in that case he would be worried about the reset preferreds market. It will probably be a bear market for the for the next two years.
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RESET Preferreds. Now the expectation is that the next BOC move could be a cut be he doubts that. We will likely get two raises into next year, and in that case he would be worried about the reset preferreds market. It will probably be a bear market for the for the next two years.
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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PARTIAL SELL
Moving to a Non-Covered Call version. The ultimate bottom/bottom is not in. If you are long term strategic, you stick with the covered call overlays. He'd be okay making a switch today.
E.T.F.'s
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Moving to a Non-Covered Call version. The ultimate bottom/bottom is not in. If you are long term strategic, you stick with the covered call overlays. He'd be okay making a switch today.
E.T.F.'s
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$17.910
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
ZUT-T vs. ZWU-T. As we go into a recession, bond rates are dropping. ZUT-T is an equal weight exposure to traditional Canadian utilities. ZWU-T includes telcos and pipelines. He is always more in favour of diversification.
E.T.F.'s
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ZUT-T vs. ZWU-T. As we go into a recession, bond rates are dropping. ZUT-T is an equal weight exposure to traditional Canadian utilities. ZWU-T includes telcos and pipelines. He is always more in favour of diversification.
E.T.F.'s
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$16.560
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
ZUT-T vs. ZWU-T. As we go into a recession, bond rates are dropping. ZUT-T is an equal weight exposure to traditional Canadian utilities. ZWU-T includes telcos and pipelines. He is always more in favour of diversification.
E.T.F.'s
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ZUT-T vs. ZWU-T. As we go into a recession, bond rates are dropping. ZUT-T is an equal weight exposure to traditional Canadian utilities. ZWU-T includes telcos and pipelines. He is always more in favour of diversification.
E.T.F.'s
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$12.700
Owned Owned
Unknown

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HOLD
These guys have lots of debt on the books. There is a factor there. It is a 7.5% dividend but nothing yields a safe 7.5% dividend. There were analyst updates today and they like it, but he does to think that is something to hang your hat on. (Analysts’ price target is $22.50)
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS
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These guys have lots of debt on the books. There is a factor there. It is a 7.5% dividend but nothing yields a safe 7.5% dividend. There were analyst updates today and they like it, but he does to think that is something to hang your hat on. (Analysts’ price target is $22.50)
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$49.290
Owned Owned
Unknown

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N/A
General Market Comment 

December 10, 2018

Educational Segment. Seasonality this time of year is very positive as everyone looks for a Santa Clause rally. His chart does not include 1987. Sell in May and Go Away still holds until early October. This year has not played out at all. As markets recovered, there was a big down. We got none of the taking off from the seasonal lows of October. This is the longest bull market in history. We expect a bunch of failed rallies. We likely will not get anything big on the upside. The highs are probably in for this bull cycle. Bear market rallies on good news can make new highs, but we are in a bear market.
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Educational Segment. Seasonality this time of year is very positive as everyone looks for a Santa Clause rally. His chart does not include 1987. Sell in May and Go Away still holds until early October. This year has not played out at all. As markets recovered, there was a big down. We got none of the taking off from the seasonal lows of October. This is the longest bull market in history. We expect a bunch of failed rallies. We likely will not get anything big on the upside. The highs are probably in for this bull cycle. Bear market rallies on good news can make new highs, but we are in a bear market.
Unknown
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.000
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_N/A

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N/A
General Market Comment 

December 10, 2018

Canadian Dollar. There has been a lot of damage to oil and gas. The curtailing of supply has helped tremendously. In a global recession it will not have helped. It will play out into 2020. Buy US$ into a pullback.
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Canadian Dollar. There has been a lot of damage to oil and gas. The curtailing of supply has helped tremendously. In a global recession it will not have helped. It will play out into 2020. Buy US$ into a pullback.
Unknown
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
_N/A

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N/A
General Market Comment 

December 3, 2018

Market. Regarding China vs. the US on trade negotiations we have no resolution. The theft of intellectual property is at the core of this. The Chinese got an extension and everyone is celebrating. This is probably going to become a big issue again. This is going to be a hard issue to solve. He does not see a solution. He hopes they are smart about this. We will see how all this plays out three months from now. The Saudis and Russia have agreed to extend but not on size. Don't look for a big rally here, just stabilization. The bottom line is to fix the problem with pipelines and capacity for refining.
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Market. Regarding China vs. the US on trade negotiations we have no resolution. The theft of intellectual property is at the core of this. The Chinese got an extension and everyone is celebrating. This is probably going to become a big issue again. This is going to be a hard issue to solve. He does not see a solution. He hopes they are smart about this. We will see how all this plays out three months from now. The Saudis and Russia have agreed to extend but not on size. Don't look for a big rally here, just stabilization. The bottom line is to fix the problem with pipelines and capacity for refining.
Unknown
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.000
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N/A
General Market Comment 

December 3, 2018

When to get defensive. No one knows when we will get into recession. We are late in the cycle and the yield curve is flattening. Once it inverts, the market will peak in about 6 months or so of that inversion. There is not a perfect inversion.
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When to get defensive. No one knows when we will get into recession. We are late in the cycle and the yield curve is flattening. Once it inverts, the market will peak in about 6 months or so of that inversion. There is not a perfect inversion.
Unknown
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.000
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DON'T BUY
Dollarama Inc.(DOL-T) 

December 3, 2018

Why was it hit so hard and will it recover to $50? A phenomenal growth story that probably still has years to go. When a huge growth stock becomes a mature company and there are questions about the growth, the multiple will contract. We are probably in that phase with this one. Don’t play it for much more than a bounce at the $40ish level.
Consumer Products
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Why was it hit so hard and will it recover to $50? A phenomenal growth story that probably still has years to go. When a huge growth stock becomes a mature company and there are questions about the growth, the multiple will contract. We are probably in that phase with this one. Don’t play it for much more than a bounce at the $40ish level.
Consumer Products
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$35.240
Owned Owned
Unknown

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N/A
General Market Comment 

December 3, 2018

ETFs that achieve diversification – how to compliment it with other investments. If you put a Euro ETF and a US ETF together, you have geographic diversity but they go up and down together. You are not getting diversification of asset classes. You need bonds, REITs, utilities, commodities and so on. That's where you get your maximum diversification. See his road show.
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ETFs that achieve diversification – how to compliment it with other investments. If you put a Euro ETF and a US ETF together, you have geographic diversity but they go up and down together. You are not getting diversification of asset classes. You need bonds, REITs, utilities, commodities and so on. That's where you get your maximum diversification. See his road show.
Unknown
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
_N/A

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N/A
General Market Comment 

December 3, 2018

ETF providers have their version of monthly yields, focused on high dividends and so on. When the yield is higher than everything in the ETF, you are getting some of your capital back.
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ETF providers have their version of monthly yields, focused on high dividends and so on. When the yield is higher than everything in the ETF, you are getting some of your capital back.
Unknown
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
_N/A

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