Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Recent comments from US Federal Reserve an attempt to emphasize higher for longer interest rates. Markets don't seem to believe narrative of higher for longer interest rates. Expecting a hard landing in the global economy. Does not think markets will be able to maintain momentum. Gold futures (higher) pointing towards some investors fear on markets. Rising Bitcoin prices a speculative narrative around issuance Bitcoin ETF's in USA. Fall in oil prices due to skepticism on OPEC ability/willingness to cut production. Believes floor around ~$70 for oil prices. 

Product does not come with diversified index. Higher yield due to special dividends. Geopolitical risk a major factor with this product. Keep small portion in portfolio accordingly. 

Great for investors looking for stable investment. Well diversified. Better option for investors versus one particular stock. 

Great company. Would recommend buying on share price weakness. Strong pipeline of new products and research. Owns shares in portfolio and would recommend for long term investor. Safe dividend. 

Look back on rates not a safe way to value bond. Going forward, rates will change. Investment thesis on interest rates will determine outlook for this product. Not a good investment if you think rates will fall. 

Would recommend selling at current prices. Does expect higher prices. Better options for investors in current markets. 

Good way to get natural gas equities exposure. Better option for long term investors than leveraged ETFs. 

American Association of Individual Investors recent survey pointing towards bullish outlook for investors. Expecting economic pain in global markets as believes investors too confident. Believes investors should be more cautious going forward (keep cash on sidelines for bearish economic opportunities at the bottom). Could be opportunities for investors if markets fall. 

Will be watching Canadian bank earnings this week. Impact of rising interest rates and how this affects consumers. If delinquencies and consumer struggles are rising, will be indicator of economy. Mortgage resets around the 5 year mark up for renewal, will also be of interest. Bad loans are the biggest concern, as mortgages can be insured from the home owner perspective. Thinks US Federal Reserve will keep rates higher for longer - curious how long this will last. Personally, does not think rates need to go higher. Believes Canadian sales are not rising in material way, and all increases are nominal. 

Likes overall business. Technically, if line does not hold, stock could fall. If economic recession, stock price will fall. Would recommend half position, waiting for weakness. 

Good for investors looking for broad bond exposure. Good diversified holdings. Not the best for TFSA (better for growth stocks), but good for registered accounts (RRSP). 

Good for currency hedging. Would recommend for European exposure. 

Would wait to buy on weakness. Economic hard landing in the horizon. Wait for impact of interest rates to be felt. 

Benefits of Small Cap Stocks: Believes 2023 year of inequality in financial markets. Large cap stocks dramatically outperforming small cap stocks. Quality of economic growth not very good. Money has been chasing top tech stocks, which is not good for markets. Broader economy not performing nearly as well. In the long run, small cap stocks will catch up to large caps. Small cap stocks could be a great way to outperform market going forward. 

Open AI headlines very surprising. Will be interesting to see how impacts Microsoft(positively). Learning models and AI will be very important part of life in the coming decades. Question is how much investors should pay for future earnings in tech names. Fundamentals often disconnected from tech names. Impact of A.I. on day to day user cases also difficult to predict. Historically, markets trend positive in the final months of the year.  Believes market is over valued and due for a hard landing.