Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

The market breadth is narrow; on average on a given day, we're making more 52-week lows than highs, which is not a sign of a robust bull market that will continue. A handful of stocks are keeping this rally going. Also, people will take money out of similar tech stocks to buy SpaceX on Friday, but not semis. The U.S. Fed should not raise rates, and it's wrong that the market is pricing in a hike. Rising rates should put a brake on the market. The US-Israel-Iran war won't end peacefully until the regime changes in Iran, he think, and clearly the US and Israel have underestimated Iran's strength in fighting back. The longer this war takes to resolve, the worse it is for inflation.

Buy low, now. It's not expensive. There are some risks--AI could negatively impact their business or make them more profitable. The market is saying the former. He likes Adobe at the current price.

Disclosure: He manages this ETF. A lot of the income in this comes from the trading aspect, which returns a capital gain distribution instead of a dividend. Now, he's raised the protection in this portfolio to shield it from market volatility in the future if it happens. A thinly traded ETF like this will have a wider bid-ask spread, so it's not ideal for trading. Don't be concerned about the volumes; ZZZD is backed by BMO which won't be going out of business.

Holding copper, it plays into the electrification of the world. Fine if you want to trade this sector, which has corrected.

Is a concentrated portfolio, including RY, TD, Shopify, Cameco, BCE, Telus, a nice mix, but narrow. The extra income comes from trading derivatives. It's actively managed, so the MER is higher. Lower ones are passive ETFs. Is the exposure right for you? That question is more important than the MER. Are you getting value?

This trades long bonds, so yes this approach works. In a risk-off market, duration as an asset class will do very well. He expects economic weakness, but doesn't know when. This pays nearly a 5% dividend. TLT may not be the best one though, because there may be a double-taxation issue (US and Canada).

When the market bottomed in mid-2022 and the rally that followed, the market mostly was above the 200-day moving average, despite a few corrections. When a market gets cheap, about 10-30% of stocks trade are above the 200-day. Presently, 59% of stocks are. During peaks in 2023, over 70% were. Peaks in 2024: 80s or 90s in terms of percentage. But during the 2025 peak: 70% only, just like now. So with each new record high, fewer and fewer stocks are participating. Market tops are impossible to call, but market bottoms are easier because of the panic and fear. Euphoria dies off slowly. 

Its 4-year chart shows Apple is now at the top of its trend (analyst target price), meaning that Apple is now priced at its 2027 price target. Take profits and buy Adobe or Mosaic.

Is good in terms of risk/return. Its downward trend has been slowing. 

When markets are at all-time highs, sometimes it's justified and sometimes it's speculation. He'd argue that right now there's an element of speculative excitement, as well as real fundamental earnings growth.

But we have this massive, diverging economy between the haves and the have-nots. And it's evident in a lot of places.

His belief (not the majority view) is that there's no way we come out of this with the IRGC governing Iran. He can't imagine any scenario where they're OK giving up their nuclear ambitions and walking away. It'll get a lot worse before it gets better.

But, contrary to his views, the market thinks there's a deal coming any day now.

There's always something more in tech, and he talked about quantum on last week's show. Technology is wildly disinflationary in terms of the productivity it adds.

For him, it always comes back to what do you pay today for that future growth? We're paying a bit too much for it. A case in point is SpaceX. The current generation won't be living on Mars. Perhaps there will be a reason for it someday for their great-grandchildren. The hype is completely misguided.

Loves it. At his firm, he's seeing vibe coding and productivity enhancements that are fantastic. It's very real and it's tangible. It'll have dislocations and disruptions in terms of employment -- the debate now is how much.

Some are saying we need a universal basic income, as a lot of white-collar jobs will be taken away. Robotics may replace a lot of blue-collar jobs, but that's been happening for decades. Still more blue-collar jobs today than there have ever been.

Time will tell. Question is what do you pay for these things today?

It's a great question to ask, especially as equities and valuations are at all-time highs.

Traditional fixed income is broken as an asset class. Because inflation is, potentially, a problem in the decades ahead (which it hasn't been for 40 years), we need to think about the traditional 60/40 split differently. We need to bring other asset classes into our portfolio.

An investor at this stage of experience in life, who has certain income needs, requires a very specific financial plan. They should work with someone. He can't give adequate advice during an on-air call-in show.

What he can say, however, is that traditional fixed income may not meet an investor's needs on real return. If you need growth because you spend more than you have, it's going to be harder to go to a fixed-income portfolio. It's not about trading decisions, it's about having the asset classes you need. It's about income needs and risk tolerances.

For example, there are all kinds of headlines about private credit today. But the right kind of private credit could further enhance the returns in your portfolio.