PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 22/26, Up 5%)

(Note the short timeframe.)  Stick with it, great name. Bit of volatility, true of a lot of the O&G names with crude coming off in the last few weeks.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 22/26, Up 3%)

(Note the short timeframe.)  Another great name. Continue to hold.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 22/26, Up 0.7%)

(Note the short timeframe.)  Sold off Wilson Creek asset to Obsidian, now much more focused. Pristine balance sheet. SAGD project in Spruce Lake is a catalyst. Lots of potential upside.

TOP PICK

Inexpensive valuation. 90% oil. Applying new techniques to old wells. Huge upside. Gas produced gets sold at much higher rates than in Canada. Yield is 7.75%.

(Analysts’ price target is $30.19)
TOP PICK

Excellent operator though the cycle. Refining margins have blown out. Big buyback program. Lots of catalysts. Yield is 1.34%.

TOP PICK

Inexpensive. Trades 9.5x EV/EBITDA, whereas competitors are 11.5x. Great upside. Linked to Alberta power prices, which have fallen ~30% YOY (will rise over time). Numbers last quarter were 8% above consensus. Good links to AI and data centre buildout. Yield is 1.46% (more of a capital gains story than a yield story).

(Analysts’ price target is $23.18)
COMMENT

This story has everything, but has the potential to be extremely destabilizing. It's a risk for the markets because the Chinese wouldn't have spent the billions they did if they weren't getting inside information.

The story has real legs and real implications. These advanced AI chips are everywhere in government, so it's worrisome.

COMMENT
Oil price.

General uncertainty around the commodity, as there's been for the last 9 months. Not going to see the end anytime soon. Even if we did, we're still in a higher-price era. Lots of damage done to infrastructure in the Gulf, which will take months (if not years) to repair. That puts a premium on oil for many years.

As well, this has shown Iran that it can control global oil prices. Even if peace breaks out, that risk premium will remain. Favourable geography allows them to close the Strait. Every time prices spike, the whole world is on edge. 

The whole region is vulnerable. No one contemplated the type of attacks on facilities, so they weren't built to withstand that. So much of the world's production and reserves are concentrated in that one narrow region, yet many of those countries don't have robust military forces in place to protect themselves.

Iranians have learned what they can do. Now their goal is to push America out of the region. Many places that have been housing US bases have been coming under attack from Iran.

BUY

Sold US assets, now exclusively Canadian. Very strong, very oil-weighted. Lots of leverage to oil. Aggressive hedging program. Lots of torque to higher oil prices.

HOLD

Still has tremendous upside. His target price is significantly higher. Disappointing that it did financing (especially right after he'd made it a Top Pick). Having to raise $$ is typical of these small, pre-revenue companies.

Lots of projects in the hopper. Nat gas prices are much higher in Europe than in NA. Longer-term story. He'd hold on, stock's pretty much at a floor.

WEAK BUY

Not a ton of upside, due to valuation. Overall, very strong name. Diversified. As a royalty name, doesn't have the risk of a producer. Smart and good way to play this industry. Good yield. 

PSK might be a slightly better option.

COMMENT
ETFs.

A very smart way to go. You get diversity, and don't have to worry about company-specific risk. 

However, you do have to worry about concentration. A broad analogy is that if you buy the SPY, you think  you're getting a broad basket of S&P 500 companies. But all the growth has actually come down to 7 (maybe 10) tech companies.

If you don't spend the time looking under the hood, you don't really know what you're getting.

BUY

Struggled the last few quarters on the stock price. Overall, excellent company. Lots of good production coming on. Reported good numbers. No reason not to own. Coming in here after it's tumbled a bit might set you up nicely for the next quarter or two.

May be a broken stock, but not a broken story. Oil and gas pushing higher are positives.

BUY
SU vs. CNQ

Interesting question. A couple of years ago, the answer would be CNQ. But today, SU is the slightly better bet. Still, either one would be an excellent way to play O&G.

A few years ago, stumbled on execution. Recently, execution has been just outstanding. (Though CNQ is also good.)

WEAK BUY
CNQ vs. SU

Interesting question. A couple of years ago, the answer would be CNQ. But today, SU is the slightly better bet. Still, either one would be an excellent way to play O&G.

A few years ago, SU stumbled on execution. Recently, execution has been just outstanding. (Though CNQ is also good.)