Volatile since US midterm elections. US economy still growing, corporate earnings are very solid. 10-year Treasury yields reapproaching and going above 5% has been an issue for stocks.
If you look at the history (going back to 1950) of the 12 months right after midterm elections, you've had 19/19 positive runs for those years. Average return is 15.1%. Next year is the third year of the presidential cycle, and that's the best year for stock markets. Again, back to 1950, the market's been positive every single time with an average return of 20.9%.
He remains pretty constructive.
With the Democrats in Congress, it doesn't mean that AI or the infrastructure buildouts are disappearing. We certainly know that demand isn't disappearing, as the use of tokens is increasing exponentially.
Separate fundamentals from the fear in the market, and try to take advantage of that.
Software side has been rebounding while the rest of tech has been coming down. 200-day MA starting to improve, with stock price above that. Cloud continues to grow, Azure doing very well. Visibility remains pretty strong.
But starting to approach technical resistance. Trades 25x PE, 15% growth -- PEG is not cheap. This worries him. Other names are cheaper. He's neutral.
Bit of softness in US banks over past few months. Long-term averages still moving higher. Valuation discount in US banks compared to Canadian. In general, likes US financials as long as 200-day MA trends higher and stock price is above. Stick to the major players like JPM, C, and MS.
He owns JPM. Used to own GS (see Past Top Picks).
Bit of softness in US banks over past few months. Long-term averages still moving higher. Valuation discount in US banks compared to Canadian. In general, likes US financials as long as 200-day MA trends higher and stock price is above. Stick to the major players like JPM, C, and MS.
He owns JPM. Used to own GS (see Past Top Picks).
Bit of softness in US banks over past few months. Long-term averages still moving higher. Valuation discount in US banks compared to Canadian. In general, likes US financials as long as 200-day MA trends higher and stock price is above. Stick to the major players like JPM, C, and MS.
He owns JPM. Used to own GS (see Past Top Picks).
MER is 9 bps. Be aware of the weighting of technology and tech-related names. Names like TSLA, META, AMZN, GOOG are classified as Consumer Discretionary/Communications, though we think of them as technology, resulting in your actually owning ~50% tech. He says this not to dissuade anyone from owning (especially after recent pullback), just to make people aware it's not as diversified as you might think.
Historically, the tech sector is the best performer 12 months after a US midterm. Note that international markets are at a discount to the US, make sure you add that component to your portfolio.
Long-term need for more and more modern power for data centres, EVs, etc. Some names have been swept under with the whole AI infrastructure selloff. Focus on the medium and long term. Change in US Congress doesn't stop (though may delay) the AI buildout. While one municipality might be NIMBY on data centres, but there will be another that wants the tax revenue and jobs.
US is in a very serious race with China to be #1 in the AI buildout. The demand will still be there.
Near-term concerns, but some are being resolved with the appointment of the CFO as interim CEO (she's been with the company for 13 years). Nothing should change with the near-term earnings story in the next 12-18 months. Every hyperscaler relies on its hardware -- can't be unwound overnight.
Current valuation is ~11.5-12x PE. We haven't seen that in a decade or more. Revenue growth of 70%. Risk that key person is gone, but they'll work through it.