Adobe Systems (ADBE)

Software stocks are at risk because of AI. Some software stocks will do OK because they have been beaten down so much. He sold Adobe two years ago because of the AI threat. Adobe is trying to benefit from AI but you can do the same things outside of Adobe. The CEO and CFO are leaving and he doesn't know if their replacements have been found.

They reported a miss and their CFO announced he's leaving yesterday. The stock cannot lift.

His rule of thumb is that if a position goes south by 15%, they have to revisit the whole investment thesis. CEO quit. And if he loses faith, what have you got? Anticipates that, eventually, hardware companies will be looking at the software stocks to broaden their stables.

Is trading at a very reasonable valuation. Is growing at double digits and buying a lot of shares. It was disappointing that the CEO is stepping down. The stock's valuation was way too high. He's bullish software--AI will unlock many benefits for software. The market has it wrong. But he isn't sure that Adobe is the best in this space. You can take a capital loss here and buy a better company. If you're long term, Adobe will be a tough one, but if you think the future will be the same as the past, then this is a screaming buy.

Buy low, now. It's not expensive. There are some risks--AI could negatively impact their business or make them more profitable. The market is saying the former. He likes Adobe at the current price.

They report Thursday. It's part of the software cohort. Even after this thrashing, he doesn't think shares are low enough.

The chart says it all for what the market thinks. The AI imaging models are getting better and better with each iteration, disrupting the entire creative process. Super vulnerable.

Sold off with software industry on AI concerns. Better places to deploy money. CEO change -- especially doesn't like when there's a debate about future of the company. They sold. Business remains strong and profitable.

Exited for clients (still owns personally due to regulatory restrictions, but he'll sell when he can).

His clients took a capital loss on this. Swapped it for CSU. Adobe management is seeing no signs of fallout from AI, so you should do fine here. AI should enhance its business. Not growing as it used to, now only ~10%. Beautiful balance sheet. Attractive valuation.

Still growing, so you could buy more. Or take the capital loss. Each investor has to decide.

Is -30.5% in Q1 and one of the worst performers on the S&P. The street expects AI to displace their software. Trades at only 10x PE, very low.

Question is will AI destroy the moat around a lot of these companies? This name is one of them. There are cheaper PDF readers out there, and AI can do a lot of creative work. Likes it here and bought some for a trade, risk/reward pretty compelling.

Contrast that to the IP of MSFT -- the moat's a lot bigger around it, as we're not going to create another widely adopted suite like that of MSFT.

AI is an overhang on this stock, which could pressure subscriptions to their software. Adobe is trading at a low PE and is growing, however, the CEO of 18 years is retiring, which surprised the street. Nobody likes surprises. 

There are better software companies to invest in.The growth rate is decelerating  and the sentiment is negative. Sentiment drives stock prices more than fundamentals in today's market. The last few quarters have been pretty good with beats but the stock has sold off. Also Adobe is more of a point solution rather than an enterprise platform.