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Latest Top Picks

Stock Opinions by Eric Nuttall

TOP PICK
The largest holding in his fund. Trading at 2.1x enterprise to cashflow. 31% free cashflow. Have pivoted to the 2 hottest plays in Canada. Clearwater exposure should give them 4.5x multiple. The balance sheet is incredible and board and management are aligned for return of capital. Could initiate a 5% dividend and 10% share buy back with 100M free cash flow remaining. (Analysts’ price target is $4.25)
oil / gas
TOP PICK
Owns 8% of the company and is the second largest holder right now. Not the most exciting holdings but they are very profitable and gives good cashflow. Well over 10 years of development drilling. 1.9x EV to 22 cashflow and 39% free cashflow yield. Expects them to initiate a healthy dividend next year. Net zero emitter. Once the balance sheet is brought back to shape, will be in a good position. (Analysts’ price target is $4.60)
oil / gas
TOP PICK
Down almost 20% this summer without any news. Management and board should be aggressive with their free cashflow. Paying down debt in the Duvernay purchase. Trading at 26% free cashflow yield. Would generate about $1B of free cashflow. A 10% share buy back would be effective. Balance sheet will be back in shape. (Analysts’ price target is $7.82)
oil / gas
COMMENT
Oil has recovered almost all the losses from the OPEC fears. OPEC production will use up spare capacity shortly. Demand growth is not faltering. Energy stocks have sold out since the OPEC meetings that has not come back. Key message is that the amount of free cashflow these companies are generating, every day that oil trades above $70 is a good day. Be a bit more patient. Companies will start messaging about what they are going to do with their free cashflow.
Unknown
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 06/20, Up 114%) Was still emerging from the covid sell off last August. The royalty structure gave them the opportunity to give meaningful dividend increases. The CEO changed. The goal is to maximize upside capture right now and this does not hit his objectives right now. Wants something with more upside potential.
oil / gas
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 06/20, Up 135%) The name has done well. Still miss-priced, as is the sector. Emerged from the challenging environment last year and ended up coming out of it better. Dividends have increased. Trading at 2.6x cashflow. The old multiples were 7-8 multiples. Net zero emitter so it ticks the ESG box.
Oil and Gas (Integrated Oils)
PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Aug 06/20, Up 78%) Was purchased by Whitecap. Was offering very meaningful upside. Still likes the management team and would support them in the future.

oil / gas
COMMENT

We are seeing some large caps such as Shell or Chevron doing some share buy backs with their free cashflow but not many in the sector have started messaging about their plans.

Unknown
COMMENT
The real story with AAV is Entropy, which is a new carbon capture division they created. They have had some positive field trials. They have created a liquid that can extract CO2 more effectively and cheaper than before. You are also getting natural gas. In the service business, there is little exclusivity for techniques. Would own it for the Entropy. More bullish on oil than natural gas.
oil / gas
BUY

Profoundly miss-priced energy stock. Has done a good job with pivoting into the two exciting plays, Clearwater and Charlie Lake. 31% free cashflow yield, which means they can privatize themselves in 3 years. Could easily pay a 5% dividend and buy back stocks with free cashflow left over. Biggest holding for him.

oil / gas
BUY

It was the banks that had forced small and mid-caps with horrendous hedges. Now they have rolled off. Bought 9.9% off Equinor. With Cardinal, this gives you the highest leverage to the rising oil price. Will probably be successful with renewing their notes. If you buy, you are betting that this will go well. Could trade at 4x multiple.

oil / gas
BUY

Only large cap name he holds in the fund. The on-going asset sales from the Husky purchase is a catalyst. They are well down the path of selling them to pay down debt. Once this is done, they should initiate a share buyback. Deep value with a catalyst for a re-rate.

oil / gas
BUY
Probably will double still. Stock is still cheap. Where is the best upside is the question. The upside will come from the management's signal for return of capital. Trades at 2.6x EV to cashflow. Trading at 25% free cashflow yield with 10 year drilling inventory. If production is kept flat, they could privatize and take themselves private many times over before going through their inventory. Could be an $18 stock.
oil / gas
BUY

A great small cap pick. Did well with getting a deal with the Metis for their play. Needs the Clearwater play to bring interest. Leverage is too high so this play will help them. Theoretically a 90% upside.

oil / gas
BUY
A great small cap producer. Trading at a slight discount to competitors. Gives you good access to what will be consolidated. Could be an M&A target.
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