Stock Opinions by Eric Nuttall - Stockchase Experts
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Eric Nuttall @

On Stockchase since : Mar 2010

Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager at Ninepoint Partners

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Stock Opinions by Eric Nuttall - Stockchase Experts

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

March 8, 2019

Oil is down today based on weak US job numbers, Chinese trade data, and the announcement of the Norwegian State Fund selling a large portion of energy investments. This contributes to negative sentiment. We are in a market still where people are looking to not invest in the sector. Oil is up 25% YTD (excluding today) and yet some stocks are still down YTD. This has been a challenging sector for too long. Companies need to start doing significant share buybacks. The valuations are the lowest he has ever seen, they are insane.
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Oil is down today based on weak US job numbers, Chinese trade data, and the announcement of the Norwegian State Fund selling a large portion of energy investments. This contributes to negative sentiment. We are in a market still where people are looking to not invest in the sector. Oil is up 25% YTD (excluding today) and yet some stocks are still down YTD. This has been a challenging sector for too long. Companies need to start doing significant share buybacks. The valuations are the lowest he has ever seen, they are insane.
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Eric Nuttall

Partner & , Ninepoint Partners...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY
Is a light and medium oil producer. This was a $15 stock 5 years ago. It is very cheap. Their dividend is very sustainable at $57-60 oil values. It is undervalued but there may be other opportunities elsewhere. It is an example of how the small cap companies are challenged in Canada. You probably want to invest where the money is going to go first which is not this name.
oil/gas
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Is a light and medium oil producer. This was a $15 stock 5 years ago. It is very cheap. Their dividend is very sustainable at $57-60 oil values. It is undervalued but there may be other opportunities elsewhere. It is an example of how the small cap companies are challenged in Canada. You probably want to invest where the money is going to go first which is not this name.
oil/gas
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Eric Nuttall

Partner & , Ninepoint Partners...

Price Price
$2.110
Owned Owned
No

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BUY
MEG Energy Corp(MEG-T) 

March 8, 2019

MEG was down on release of Q4 results. It gives exposure to heavy oil in Alberta. They can keep production cap and generate $527M in free cashflow based on $60 oil next year. If they chose to buyback stock, they could purchase 36% of their shares outstanding in 1 year. They are focusing on delevering the company. They can service their current debt and thinks they may be better off to buyback shares. Extremely undervalued.
oil/gas
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MEG was down on release of Q4 results. It gives exposure to heavy oil in Alberta. They can keep production cap and generate $527M in free cashflow based on $60 oil next year. If they chose to buyback stock, they could purchase 36% of their shares outstanding in 1 year. They are focusing on delevering the company. They can service their current debt and thinks they may be better off to buyback shares. Extremely undervalued.
oil/gas
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Eric Nuttall

Partner & , Ninepoint Partners...

Price Price
$5.070
Owned Owned
Yes

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DON'T BUY
Surge Energy Inc(SGY-T) 

March 8, 2019

This is a light medium oil producer. Given the market cap and leverage, he prefers others with a better balance sheet. Would recommend Torque Oil & Gas instead.
oil/gas
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This is a light medium oil producer. Given the market cap and leverage, he prefers others with a better balance sheet. Would recommend Torque Oil & Gas instead.
oil/gas
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Eric Nuttall

Partner & , Ninepoint Partners...

Price Price
$1.350
Owned Owned
No

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DON'T BUY
It trades at a higher premium than some of its peers. You do get some foreign exposure with this. Can get higher returns with other names and slightly better balance sheets.
oil/gas
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It trades at a higher premium than some of its peers. You do get some foreign exposure with this. Can get higher returns with other names and slightly better balance sheets.
oil/gas
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Eric Nuttall

Partner & , Ninepoint Partners...

Price Price
$33.770
Owned Owned
No

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BUY
If you believe in $60 oil or higher, this offers the highest leverage of any name. If you believe in $55 or lower, you do not want to own this. This company is very sensitive to oil price and oil differential. Negative cash flow at $55 oil and positive cash flow at $60 oil. If Line 3 does come on next year, and oil by rail ramps up, and if get positive resolution to Keystone or trans mountain, this could be a double or triple.
oil/gas
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If you believe in $60 oil or higher, this offers the highest leverage of any name. If you believe in $55 or lower, you do not want to own this. This company is very sensitive to oil price and oil differential. Negative cash flow at $55 oil and positive cash flow at $60 oil. If Line 3 does come on next year, and oil by rail ramps up, and if get positive resolution to Keystone or trans mountain, this could be a double or triple.
oil/gas
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Eric Nuttall

Partner & , Ninepoint Partners...

Price Price
$0.850
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY
He is challenged with natural gas in general in North America. There is a tonne of low cost supply. There are other names he would strongly prefer. He would not have exposure to Canadian nat gas stocks now.
oil/gas
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He is challenged with natural gas in general in North America. There is a tonne of low cost supply. There are other names he would strongly prefer. He would not have exposure to Canadian nat gas stocks now.
oil/gas
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Eric Nuttall

Partner & , Ninepoint Partners...

Price Price
$3.430
Owned Owned
No

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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 15/18, Down 2%) It was acquired by Baytex. Baytex remains his largest holding. It is extremely undervalued. They beat on Q4 and expect Q1 to be a beat. It is at a 24% free cash flow yield. No issues with balance sheet.
Oil and Gas (Integrated Oils)
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(A Top Pick Mar 15/18, Down 2%) It was acquired by Baytex. Baytex remains his largest holding. It is extremely undervalued. They beat on Q4 and expect Q1 to be a beat. It is at a 24% free cash flow yield. No issues with balance sheet.
Oil and Gas (Integrated Oils)
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Eric Nuttall

Partner & , Ninepoint Partners...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Yes

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DON'T BUY
Suncor Energy Inc(SU-T) 

March 8, 2019

Should I buy Suncor now until the market turns and then buy a smaller cap with more torque? Do you want to own large cap integrated or mid cap? If he can buy names now at 25-30% free cash flows, he is willing to take on a little more volatility. If you are not invested when that turn happens, you might miss the opportunity because they likely could gap up 10% in a few day. He would be more in the midcaps than where everyone else is hiding such as in Suncor.
integrated oils
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Should I buy Suncor now until the market turns and then buy a smaller cap with more torque? Do you want to own large cap integrated or mid cap? If he can buy names now at 25-30% free cash flows, he is willing to take on a little more volatility. If you are not invested when that turn happens, you might miss the opportunity because they likely could gap up 10% in a few day. He would be more in the midcaps than where everyone else is hiding such as in Suncor.
integrated oils
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Eric Nuttall

Partner & , Ninepoint Partners...

Price Price
$43.700
Owned Owned
No

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BUY
This is in the small mid cap space. They are geographically diverse and this is a concern. At $60 oil, the dividend is absolutely safe. They are trading at 87% of the wells that are on stream today. So everything else you are getting for free. Very undervalued.
Oil and Gas (Integrated Oils)
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This is in the small mid cap space. They are geographically diverse and this is a concern. At $60 oil, the dividend is absolutely safe. They are trading at 87% of the wells that are on stream today. So everything else you are getting for free. Very undervalued.
Oil and Gas (Integrated Oils)
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Eric Nuttall

Partner & , Ninepoint Partners...

Price Price
$4.290
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
Their asset write down was meaningless. Their reserves did not change which is what he cares about. They will generate $400M free cashflow. The stock is trading below their blowdown value. They are doing the right thing by slowing down the drilling and buying back stock. Management are doing the right thing.
oil/gas
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Their asset write down was meaningless. Their reserves did not change which is what he cares about. They will generate $400M free cashflow. The stock is trading below their blowdown value. They are doing the right thing by slowing down the drilling and buying back stock. Management are doing the right thing.
oil/gas
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Eric Nuttall

Partner & , Ninepoint Partners...

Price Price
$4.040
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY
Their debt is too high and lack the financial flexibility that others have. He sees other opportunities that do not have this balance sheet issue.
oil/gas
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Their debt is too high and lack the financial flexibility that others have. He sees other opportunities that do not have this balance sheet issue.
oil/gas
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Eric Nuttall

Partner & , Ninepoint Partners...

Price Price
$0.610
Owned Owned
No

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DON'T BUY
He is extremely active in trading in his fund. He may recommend a stock today, but get out of it next month because of situations. They put out a horrible Q4. Their entry in the US was horrific timing. He is not comfortable with this name anymore.
Energy
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He is extremely active in trading in his fund. He may recommend a stock today, but get out of it next month because of situations. They put out a horrible Q4. Their entry in the US was horrific timing. He is not comfortable with this name anymore.
Energy
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Eric Nuttall

Partner & , Ninepoint Partners...

Price Price
$1.760
Owned Owned
No

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DON'T BUY
Devon Energy Corp(DVN-N) 

March 8, 2019

This is not a bad name. He sees risk on the asset disposition. The list of buyers for Canadian oil sand properties is not that extensive. If you want US exposure he would go elsewhere.
oil/gas
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This is not a bad name. He sees risk on the asset disposition. The list of buyers for Canadian oil sand properties is not that extensive. If you want US exposure he would go elsewhere.
oil/gas
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Eric Nuttall

Partner & , Ninepoint Partners...

Price Price
$26.710
Owned Owned
No

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TOP PICK
WPX Energy Inc.(WPX-N) 

March 8, 2019

Gives good exposure to the Permian with some Balkan. Growing by 22% this year. About a year out from buying back stock or dividends. There is 100% upside to this name with a recovering oil price. Has good exposure to light oil. Yield = 0.53% (Analysts’ price target is $149.00)
oil/gas
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Gives good exposure to the Permian with some Balkan. Growing by 22% this year. About a year out from buying back stock or dividends. There is 100% upside to this name with a recovering oil price. Has good exposure to light oil. Yield = 0.53% (Analysts’ price target is $149.00)
oil/gas
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Eric Nuttall

Partner & , Ninepoint Partners...

Price Price
$11.410
Owned Owned
Yes

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