Eric Nuttall
Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager at Ninepoint Partners
Member since: Mar '10 · 2634 Opinions
Rating Card
Premium content| All | 
Rating
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Win
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Neutral
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Big Loss
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| 4.26 | 312 33.19% | 127 13.51% | 70 7.45% | 179 19.04% | 252 26.81% | ||
| 1 Month | 4.54 | 32 14.04% | 64 28.07% | 38 16.67% | 78 34.21% | 16 7.02% | |
| 6 Months | 4.71 | 70 32.11% | 28 12.84% | 24 11.01% | 48 22.02% | 48 22.02% | |
| 12 Months | 3.39 | 77 37.38% | 20 9.71% | 6 2.91% | 24 11.65% | 79 38.35% | |
| 2 Years | 4.59 | 80 43.01% | 13 6.99% | 1 0.54% | 20 10.75% | 72 38.71% | |
| 5 Years | 4.07 | 53 51.96% | 2 1.96% | 1 0.98% | 9 8.82% | 37 36.27% |
Stock Opinions by Eric Nuttall
Canadian inflation is down, partly because of the end of the carbon tax and low oil prices. What's driving the latter is ongoing global economic uncertainty due to Trump's tariffs. In Q1 oil demand was strong though that seems to be slowing down now. Couple that with increased output from OPEC+. If demand falls, what oil price will moderate US shale production? Natural gas: currently we're in a shoulder season, so volatile. However, there's been a meaningful increase in demand for LNG by the US (16% to 28% by 2030). LNG Canada should have its first export next month, which is positive and will shrink the Canadian discount in the nat gas price by nearly half. Power demand in the US will grow by 25%, so that is another driver. He expects nat gas to trade at $4-5 over the next year.
Is benefiting from weakness in American shale. The Oil Sands have been overlooked for a long while; the Oil Sands have supply unlike much of the world which is and will face oil supply shortages. ATH has no debt. They will have over 50 years of stay-flat inventory. Have low or no growth, but will buy back as much as stock free cash flow allows. There is a take-put premium in the current share price. At $70 oil, this will trade at 11% free cash flow yield. He sees $80 oil in a year or more, but not for the next 9 months at least. Great managers.
He had a massive position in Veren before WCP "stole" (bought) it. He was very excited about Veren's asset base. However, he is neutral oil now, so doesn't own WCP (prefers natural gas stocks). But he sees massive value in WCP. Are paid an 8.6% dividend yield, which is sustainable to low-$50s oil. Is upside here. Trades at 4x cash flow. At $70 oil, it will trade at a 5x multiple and shares will cost $14.
They received the second hostile bid in 10 years from the same company. He opposes this deal. The bid is laughable, massively undervalued. Unique, MEG has a super-quality single Oil Sands asset. Modest growth over time. They use all free cash flow to buy back stock. At $70 oil, MEG could buy back half their stock in the next 5 years. The asset quality of Strathcona (the bidder) isn't as good as MEG's. So, the deal would mean less liquidity, less quality, less inventory, though management of both are fine. MEG has a strong balance sheet and high inventory, so what is he getting from this deal? The fair value of MEG stock is much higher than now. He is a major shareholder of MEG.
He's a long-term natural gas bull; it's the fuel of the future, and LNG Canada is about to start. TOU has a good CEO and good inventory and pays a high dividend. That said, TOU is not his favourite nat gas stock though holds a lot of shares. TOU is more about dividends. TOU buys a lot of companies which creates an overhang and doesn't allow the share price to perform as well, so it lags its nat gas peers.
Is a low-risk, low-volatility, boring stock with limited upside, but pays an 8.8% dividend yield, which is why he has owned it in the past. The div is sustainable down to $50 oil. Their last quarter was good because their Permian assets are growing faster than expected. It trades at half the multiple as Prairie Sky and other peers.
He sold this around $90. It's tied to the fall in oil prices as drilling activity slides. Shares are at a 28% free cash flow yield, but he isn't confident about that figure. Revisit this in maybe 6 months after the market absorbs OPEC oversupply.
He's not bullish oil now (nat gas, yes), so he doesn't own CNQ, though it's run well. CNQ has a deep resource base. The value of the Oil Sands will rise because of its strategic value against the dwindling US shale producers. This is reaching the lows of this cycle. CNQ is more oil than nat gas. Pays a 5.5% dividend yield and strong balance sheet. Are paying down debt.
