Eric Nuttall
Member since: Mar '10
Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager at
Ninepoint Partners
Ninepoint Partners
1827 Opinions
Latest Top Picks
(A Top Pick Aug 30/19, Down 24%) Still one of only a dozen core holdings he has. They are sitting on a world-class asset. They are roughly 55% hedged on production this year at $59 oil. They really need about $44 oil to be successful. They are levered, but have refinanced and it is not due until 2024. He is a bull on oil, thinking we will get back to $50 by year end.
(A Top Pick Aug 30/19, Down 44%) It has been a roller-coaster ride and he is still one of the top three holders of the stock. When oil returns to $60, sometime next year they will be strong again. They could be a candidate for consolidation in the space. If you are bullish on condensate pricing, there could be some great upside here. He continues to hold it as a large core holding.
(A Top Pick Aug 30/19, Down 44%) They monetized assets last year and started this year with a good balance sheet. At $50 oil prices it trades at 2.8 times cash flow -- historically it traded as high as 8 times. He thinks oil will get back to these levels by end-2020. It remains a large holding in his fund.
He thinks we will see $50 by end-year. At this level it is trading at 2.6 times cash flow -- historically it traded at 8 times. That best place to be in energy is in Canada. He likes the management team. They can also be active in sector consolidation as CPP owns 29% of the company. Yield 0% (Analysts’ price target is $2.09)
They are $209 million on a $275 million line of credit and they are cash flow positive. They have one of the strongest balance sheets in the small to medium cap energy space. It trades at 2.1 times cash flow at $50 oil. They are keeping production flat and using cash flow to pay back debt and do share buybacks. This company could be a takeover target in the future. Yield 0% (Analysts’ price target is $1.46)
Signal
Opinion
Expert
Chart
COMMENT
COMMENT
June 19, 2020
Market Outlook He thinks oil demand is back to almost 90% of pre-pandemic levels. Although he thinks it may not be quite that high, it is the path upwards that he likes. There was a 5 million barrel per day surplus over the past month, which he thinks is not as bad as the market thinks. Traffic is going back up in major metropolitan areas, and flying is showing an inflection as well. By the end of this year he thinks demand will be close to pre-pandemic levels. There are many energy stocks still down 60-70% so he thinks there is good support for a recovery in energy stock prices. The market is near not as loose as he thinks the markets believes.
Show full opinionHide full opinion
Market Outlook He thinks oil demand is back to almost 90% of pre-pandemic levels. Although he thinks it may not be quite that high, it is the path upwards that he likes. There was a 5 million barrel per day surplus over the past month, which he thinks is not as bad as the market thinks. Traffic is going back up in major metropolitan areas, and flying is showing an inflection as well. By the end of this year he thinks demand will be close to pre-pandemic levels. There are many energy stocks still down 60-70% so he thinks there is good support for a recovery in energy stock prices. The market is near not as loose as he thinks the markets believes.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 19, 2020
Down 95% since recommended? This is a volatile sector and his recommendations have changed over the past year. There were many bearish issues that caused the stock to decline. Under $60 WTI they do not generate enough cash flow. They also have $450 million debt repayment due in February 2021. He can't bring himself to buy this now. There are better opportunities out there.
Show full opinionHide full opinionDown 95% since recommended? This is a volatile sector and his recommendations have changed over the past year. There were many bearish issues that caused the stock to decline. Under $60 WTI they do not generate enough cash flow. They also have $450 million debt repayment due in February 2021. He can't bring himself to buy this now. There are better opportunities out there.
oil/gas
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 19, 2020
It is regarded as lower risk, despite a slightly higher geopolitical risk. They are sitting on $300 million in cash. They are looking for an acquisition outside of their core, so he is a little uneasy on where they are going. There are better names to own first.
Show full opinionHide full opinionIt is regarded as lower risk, despite a slightly higher geopolitical risk. They are sitting on $300 million in cash. They are looking for an acquisition outside of their core, so he is a little uneasy on where they are going. There are better names to own first.
oil/gas
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 19, 2020
VET vs OVV? They are both stocks he would not own. OVV participated well on expected index buying in the US, but they are no longer able to attract US investors based on their share price. It is a non-starter for sure. VET cut the dividend and they changed management, but it will be a long road. They can't sell assets to help reduce debt and they can't raise the dividend. They are in far too many geographical areas and he thinks they have lost focus.
VET vs OVV? They are both stocks he would not own. OVV participated well on expected index buying in the US, but they are no longer able to attract US investors based on their share price. It is a non-starter for sure. VET cut the dividend and they changed management, but it will be a long road. They can't sell assets to help reduce debt and they can't raise the dividend. They are in far too many geographical areas and he thinks they have lost focus.
oil/gas
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 19, 2020
VET vs OVV? They are both stocks he would not own. OVV participated well on expected index buying in the US, but they are no longer able to attract US investors based on their share price. It is a non-starter for sure. VET cut the dividend and they changed management, but it will be a long road. They can't sell assets to help reduce debt and they can't raise the dividend. They are in far too many geographical areas and he thinks they have lost focus.
VET vs OVV? They are both stocks he would not own. OVV participated well on expected index buying in the US, but they are no longer able to attract US investors based on their share price. It is a non-starter for sure. VET cut the dividend and they changed management, but it will be a long road. They can't sell assets to help reduce debt and they can't raise the dividend. They are in far too many geographical areas and he thinks they have lost focus.
COMMENT
COMMENT
June 19, 2020
70% revenue from condensate? Oil prices has recently rallied due to OPEC agreement extensions and a recovery in demand. Associated natural gas production has begin to rise again and natural gas prices have fallen. He thinks a large oil sands producer using condensate may take advantage of this company and consider it as an acquisition target and a re-rate candidate.
Show full opinionHide full opinion70% revenue from condensate? Oil prices has recently rallied due to OPEC agreement extensions and a recovery in demand. Associated natural gas production has begin to rise again and natural gas prices have fallen. He thinks a large oil sands producer using condensate may take advantage of this company and consider it as an acquisition target and a re-rate candidate.
Energy
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
June 19, 2020
Speculative buy you thought? If you are bullish on oil, it can be a good buy. He sold it at $0.34 so he could buy others that did not have the same financial risk. He bought it back at $0.40 before the rally up. He sold it after making 100% in a week. There will be a time and a price that it will make sense, but he is not sharing when that will be again.
Show full opinionHide full opinionSpeculative buy you thought? If you are bullish on oil, it can be a good buy. He sold it at $0.34 so he could buy others that did not have the same financial risk. He bought it back at $0.40 before the rally up. He sold it after making 100% in a week. There will be a time and a price that it will make sense, but he is not sharing when that will be again.
oil/gas
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
June 19, 2020
(A Top Pick Aug 30/19, Down 24%) Still one of only a dozen core holdings he has. They are sitting on a world-class asset. They are roughly 55% hedged on production this year at $59 oil. They really need about $44 oil to be successful. They are levered, but have refinanced and it is not due until 2024. He is a bull on oil, thinking we will get back to $50 by year end.
Show full opinionHide full opinion(A Top Pick Aug 30/19, Down 24%) Still one of only a dozen core holdings he has. They are sitting on a world-class asset. They are roughly 55% hedged on production this year at $59 oil. They really need about $44 oil to be successful. They are levered, but have refinanced and it is not due until 2024. He is a bull on oil, thinking we will get back to $50 by year end.
oil/gas
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
June 19, 2020
(A Top Pick Aug 30/19, Down 44%) It has been a roller-coaster ride and he is still one of the top three holders of the stock. When oil returns to $60, sometime next year they will be strong again. They could be a candidate for consolidation in the space. If you are bullish on condensate pricing, there could be some great upside here. He continues to hold it as a large core holding.
Show full opinionHide full opinion(A Top Pick Aug 30/19, Down 44%) It has been a roller-coaster ride and he is still one of the top three holders of the stock. When oil returns to $60, sometime next year they will be strong again. They could be a candidate for consolidation in the space. If you are bullish on condensate pricing, there could be some great upside here. He continues to hold it as a large core holding.
oil/gas
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
June 19, 2020
(A Top Pick Aug 30/19, Down 44%) They monetized assets last year and started this year with a good balance sheet. At $50 oil prices it trades at 2.8 times cash flow -- historically it traded as high as 8 times. He thinks oil will get back to these levels by end-2020. It remains a large holding in his fund.
Show full opinionHide full opinion(A Top Pick Aug 30/19, Down 44%) They monetized assets last year and started this year with a good balance sheet. At $50 oil prices it trades at 2.8 times cash flow -- historically it traded as high as 8 times. He thinks oil will get back to these levels by end-2020. It remains a large holding in his fund.
oil/gas
COMMENT
COMMENT
June 19, 2020
It is tough to knock CNQ. The Saudis are rumoured to be divesting their holdings. They have lots of liquidity. He does not own it as it is so large within the energy index. He thinks he would do better owning names that are not already known.
Show full opinionHide full opinionIt is tough to knock CNQ. The Saudis are rumoured to be divesting their holdings. They have lots of liquidity. He does not own it as it is so large within the energy index. He thinks he would do better owning names that are not already known.
oil/gas
HOLD
HOLD
June 19, 2020
This is a top name holding for him. Once the banks decide on subsidies for some of the companies, there should be some uncertainty that comes out of the share price. They are trading at an attractive level. At $50 or higher oil, the balance sheet is strong and their production decline rate is falling. They are capturing CO2 to work towards becoming net zero emitting.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThis is a top name holding for him. Once the banks decide on subsidies for some of the companies, there should be some uncertainty that comes out of the share price. They are trading at an attractive level. At $50 or higher oil, the balance sheet is strong and their production decline rate is falling. They are capturing CO2 to work towards becoming net zero emitting.
Oil and Gas (Integrated Oils)
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 19, 2020
Average down? He has owned it a couple times in the past. He is not bullish on Canadian natural gas, so does not own it now. They are 60% in natural gas and there are summer pricing risk on the commodity. It will take time for a new COO to get set. At $50 oil it is 4 times cash flow -- he thinks there are even more enticing opportunities out there. He would not average down.
Show full opinionHide full opinionAverage down? He has owned it a couple times in the past. He is not bullish on Canadian natural gas, so does not own it now. They are 60% in natural gas and there are summer pricing risk on the commodity. It will take time for a new COO to get set. At $50 oil it is 4 times cash flow -- he thinks there are even more enticing opportunities out there. He would not average down.
oil/gas
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 19, 2020
Light production? It struggles for relevance in the market as a medium to medium-light oil producer. They cut the dividend to zero to de-lever. They purchased old oil fields, but with the higher operating costs and higher risk for environmental liability he would not own this.
Show full opinionHide full opinionLight production? It struggles for relevance in the market as a medium to medium-light oil producer. They cut the dividend to zero to de-lever. They purchased old oil fields, but with the higher operating costs and higher risk for environmental liability he would not own this.
oil/gas
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 19, 2020
Capital issues? He would avoid this as he owns no service companies right now. Producers have been marginal with cash flow to survive, but there has been no surplus cash flow to increase drilling activity. CEU sells chemicals to US producers and have been forced to cut prices on their product. He thinks the market is in a new normal, focusing on debt re-payment. This will place a longer term cap on activity levels.
Show full opinionHide full opinionCapital issues? He would avoid this as he owns no service companies right now. Producers have been marginal with cash flow to survive, but there has been no surplus cash flow to increase drilling activity. CEU sells chemicals to US producers and have been forced to cut prices on their product. He thinks the market is in a new normal, focusing on debt re-payment. This will place a longer term cap on activity levels.
oil/gas field services
© Stockchase Inc.