Eric Nuttall
Member since: Mar '10
Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager at
Ninepoint Partners
Ninepoint Partners
Reveal Expert Rating
1974 Opinions
Latest Top Picks
(A Top Pick May 15/20, Up 137%) A core holding for him. Must own if you are bullish on oil. Using all free cashflow to de-lever. 2.6x debt to cashflow next year at $60 oil. Spending some money to scale production to reach critical mass. Trading at under 5x cashflow with 33% free cashflow yield. Once debt is paid down, they can start increasing dividend and buybacks. At $60 oil, target is $10.80, $70 oil would be $18.64.
(A Top Pick May 15/20, Up 189%) Was taken out by Whitecap. Whitecap is now a net-negative emitter. They inject CO2 into the ground. From an ESG perspective, it is a great candidate. They are scaling up to increase market cap. Bigger you are, more radar screens you hit. Whitecap could trade at 6x which is $8.40.
(A Top Pick May 15/20, Up 87%) Only large cap he owns. The most near term catalyst. Has had time to digest the Husky assets. They have lots of assets that are non core that they can sell. The leverage they have taken on is being paid off faster than planned. At $60 oil, would trade at 9% free cashflow yield. At $70 it doubles.
No one is looking in the small cap where there are huge opportunities. Still see meaningful upside. $60 oil means their free cashflow goes up by 10x. At $60 oil, it would generate $144M of free cashflow. Leveraged to the oil price. 54% free cashflow yield and the name would trade at a 3x multiple. Could go to $0.90 share price. At $70 oil, could go above $1.00. Must refinance debt but expects positive outcomes. There is some risk. (Analysts’ price target is $0.47)
Bought strategic positions in this company. Trading just under 3x cashflow at $60 oil. Higher operating costs. A boring play but at $70 oil, they generate gobs of free cashflow. De-leveraging and balance sheet is improving. Looking for a dividend in the future. Share buy back and acquisitions will add attractiveness. (Analysts’ price target is $2.65)
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COMMENT
COMMENT
April 30, 2021
There is finally a structural bull market for oil. Goldman Saks and JP Morgans are now calling for $80 oil in Q3. The party is just starting. His fund is up 70% this year. Stocks fell so much last year that they are up quite a lot. Even at $60 oil, you can buy stocks at 2-3x cashflow. These used to trade at 7-8x. Best measure is free cashflow yield. Companies need to commit to meaningfully increase dividends and buy backs. OPEC will be out of spare capacity by the beginning of next year, global off-shore is in decline and US Shale hyper growth is over.
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There is finally a structural bull market for oil. Goldman Saks and JP Morgans are now calling for $80 oil in Q3. The party is just starting. His fund is up 70% this year. Stocks fell so much last year that they are up quite a lot. Even at $60 oil, you can buy stocks at 2-3x cashflow. These used to trade at 7-8x. Best measure is free cashflow yield. Companies need to commit to meaningfully increase dividends and buy backs. OPEC will be out of spare capacity by the beginning of next year, global off-shore is in decline and US Shale hyper growth is over.
BUY
BUY
April 30, 2021
Has always been an aggregator of plays and then sells them. Just sold their anchor property. Currently developing their Oak property to sell in the future. They have good liquids exposure. Trades at a modest premium with 3.6x enterprise value to cashflow next year at $60 oil. A very unique story. Buying for the potential value of their future plays. Good candidate for the ESG movement.
Show full opinionHide full opinionHas always been an aggregator of plays and then sells them. Just sold their anchor property. Currently developing their Oak property to sell in the future. They have good liquids exposure. Trades at a modest premium with 3.6x enterprise value to cashflow next year at $60 oil. A very unique story. Buying for the potential value of their future plays. Good candidate for the ESG movement.
oil/gas
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 30, 2021
There are aspects that will detract institutional ownership. There are some promotional aspects. The name is cheap and are paying down debt. It is not a name he is looking at. The quantitative and qualitative aspects need to match and for him it does not meet his requirements.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThere are aspects that will detract institutional ownership. There are some promotional aspects. The name is cheap and are paying down debt. It is not a name he is looking at. The quantitative and qualitative aspects need to match and for him it does not meet his requirements.
BUY
BUY
April 30, 2021
Established a 6% weight at $1.28. The hope is their appraisal results from the Clearwater play is positive. Potential $440M potential de-risk value that is worth half the market cap. Most people are not aware they are pursuing this. An inefficient market where you can make profit. Trading at 3.5x next year enterprise to cash flow at $60 oil. Target multiple is 6x. At $70 oil, you can look forward to $3.60.
Established a 6% weight at $1.28. The hope is their appraisal results from the Clearwater play is positive. Potential $440M potential de-risk value that is worth half the market cap. Most people are not aware they are pursuing this. An inefficient market where you can make profit. Trading at 3.5x next year enterprise to cash flow at $60 oil. Target multiple is 6x. At $70 oil, you can look forward to $3.60.
oil/gas
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
April 30, 2021
Smallest weight in his fund. The stock imploded on bad exploration drilling. Primarily natural gas and some oil. Fixed price on gas so it is a volume story. Bought it at 2x future cashflow so it was a great opportunity. Thinly traded.
Show full opinionHide full opinionSmallest weight in his fund. The stock imploded on bad exploration drilling. Primarily natural gas and some oil. Fixed price on gas so it is a volume story. Bought it at 2x future cashflow so it was a great opportunity. Thinly traded.
Energy
BUY
BUY
April 30, 2021
Has been picking away at it around $2.05. Volume has dried out. A name that will bring online 12 wells with good expectations. The name could trade at 3x next year's cashflow. With incremental production, it is trading at 1.9 2 year out cashflow. Super inexpensive. Would buy this over Arc Resources.
Show full opinionHide full opinionHas been picking away at it around $2.05. Volume has dried out. A name that will bring online 12 wells with good expectations. The name could trade at 3x next year's cashflow. With incremental production, it is trading at 1.9 2 year out cashflow. Super inexpensive. Would buy this over Arc Resources.
oil/gas
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 30, 2021
More bullish on oil than natural gas due to cap ex not growing. This winter was disappointing and gas is at a modest deficit in the US. Oil could head to $100 oil. More excited for the oil thesis.
Show full opinionHide full opinionMore bullish on oil than natural gas due to cap ex not growing. This winter was disappointing and gas is at a modest deficit in the US. Oil could head to $100 oil. More excited for the oil thesis.
oil/gas
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
April 30, 2021
(A Top Pick May 15/20, Up 137%) A core holding for him. Must own if you are bullish on oil. Using all free cashflow to de-lever. 2.6x debt to cashflow next year at $60 oil. Spending some money to scale production to reach critical mass. Trading at under 5x cashflow with 33% free cashflow yield. Once debt is paid down, they can start increasing dividend and buybacks. At $60 oil, target is $10.80, $70 oil would be $18.64.
Show full opinionHide full opinion(A Top Pick May 15/20, Up 137%) A core holding for him. Must own if you are bullish on oil. Using all free cashflow to de-lever. 2.6x debt to cashflow next year at $60 oil. Spending some money to scale production to reach critical mass. Trading at under 5x cashflow with 33% free cashflow yield. Once debt is paid down, they can start increasing dividend and buybacks. At $60 oil, target is $10.80, $70 oil would be $18.64.
oil/gas
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
April 30, 2021
(A Top Pick May 15/20, Up 189%) Was taken out by Whitecap. Whitecap is now a net-negative emitter. They inject CO2 into the ground. From an ESG perspective, it is a great candidate. They are scaling up to increase market cap. Bigger you are, more radar screens you hit. Whitecap could trade at 6x which is $8.40.
Show full opinionHide full opinion(A Top Pick May 15/20, Up 189%) Was taken out by Whitecap. Whitecap is now a net-negative emitter. They inject CO2 into the ground. From an ESG perspective, it is a great candidate. They are scaling up to increase market cap. Bigger you are, more radar screens you hit. Whitecap could trade at 6x which is $8.40.
oil/gas
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
April 30, 2021
(A Top Pick May 15/20, Up 87%) Only large cap he owns. The most near term catalyst. Has had time to digest the Husky assets. They have lots of assets that are non core that they can sell. The leverage they have taken on is being paid off faster than planned. At $60 oil, would trade at 9% free cashflow yield. At $70 it doubles.
Show full opinionHide full opinion(A Top Pick May 15/20, Up 87%) Only large cap he owns. The most near term catalyst. Has had time to digest the Husky assets. They have lots of assets that are non core that they can sell. The leverage they have taken on is being paid off faster than planned. At $60 oil, would trade at 9% free cashflow yield. At $70 it doubles.
oil/gas
BUY
BUY
April 30, 2021
Has done a fantastic job at scaling up and increasing their assets. They have 2 new core plays with some of the best economics in Canada. At $60 oil, trading at 2.9x enterprise value to cashflow at 23% cashflow yield. Small cap light oil names is getting more attention. Still excited about it. (Analysts’ price target is $3.50)
Show full opinionHide full opinionHas done a fantastic job at scaling up and increasing their assets. They have 2 new core plays with some of the best economics in Canada. At $60 oil, trading at 2.9x enterprise value to cashflow at 23% cashflow yield. Small cap light oil names is getting more attention. Still excited about it. (Analysts’ price target is $3.50)
oil/gas
BUY
BUY
April 30, 2021
At $80, it would trade at 2.1x next year's cashflow, which is close to $15. A net negative emitter and best rated ESG energy company. There is alignment between the stock and management interest. The name will do quite well.
Show full opinionHide full opinionAt $80, it would trade at 2.1x next year's cashflow, which is close to $15. A net negative emitter and best rated ESG energy company. There is alignment between the stock and management interest. The name will do quite well.
Oil and Gas (Integrated Oils)
BUY
BUY
April 30, 2021
Really undervalued right now. Free cashflow is $1.8B and their market cap is $1.9B. Speaks to how undervalued it is. There is uncertainty in Dapple with environmentalists taking them to court. The results should be in favour of ERF. Even if it is against them, it is not material. Balance sheet, inventory depth is good. At $60 oil, $12.28 target.
Show full opinionHide full opinionReally undervalued right now. Free cashflow is $1.8B and their market cap is $1.9B. Speaks to how undervalued it is. There is uncertainty in Dapple with environmentalists taking them to court. The results should be in favour of ERF. Even if it is against them, it is not material. Balance sheet, inventory depth is good. At $60 oil, $12.28 target.
oil/gas
BUY
BUY
April 30, 2021
Does not own it in the fund since it is predominantly a nat gas play. Best exposure to the California market. Trading at 4x forward cashflow. It could deserve a 6x. More bullish on oil than nat gas. If bullish on gas, you can own this.
Show full opinionHide full opinionDoes not own it in the fund since it is predominantly a nat gas play. Best exposure to the California market. Trading at 4x forward cashflow. It could deserve a 6x. More bullish on oil than nat gas. If bullish on gas, you can own this.
oil/gas
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 30, 2021
Okay if you are interested in dividends. If you are looking for capital appreciations, there are better choices for this. 2.8% dividend.
Show full opinionHide full opinionOkay if you are interested in dividends. If you are looking for capital appreciations, there are better choices for this. 2.8% dividend.
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