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A new member of the Fed wants aggressive cuts, compared to his peers. If inflation was more contained, the Fed could get more aggressive. The worst thing would be the Fed cutting rates, then raising them again later. This new member is looking at the next few years, not quarters. For example, if immigration continues to be limited, then rent inflation will be curtailed. So, demographics support the notion of inflation will come down. Larry argues that less globalization would be an equal and opposite force that would push inflation up.
It may appear that Nvidia is investing in hardware ($100 billion in OpenAI), but really they are financing the purchase of their own equipment. The market responded by pushing the stock back to record highs where it remain slightly under that. Will this mean NVDA will break out to new highs or are existing shareholders selling? Take some money off the table. He likes AI for the long term, but the market is ahead of itself now.
There's money on the sidelines, but he doesn't know. Probably, people are reluctant to sell because share prices keep going up. Probably, selling will happen when there's bad earnings news. Maybe the markets keep grinding higher, helped by declining interest rates.
Is among a new type of ETF that takes stocks, levers them up and offers all kinds of fancy income strategies, like options. He hates all of them, not any one in particular, because you're paying a lot more, getting no diversification and are leveraging up a single name. This is for traders, at best. Avoid it you want total return.
Last week, we saw an update of projections from the U.S. Fed. Core PCI is what they focus on, and the Fed is concerned that inflation will remain elevated above their 2% target for the next year or so, though they feel that inflation will reach 2% eventually in 2028. Good sector inflation was flat since 2001 till Covid, even deflationary. With Covid, it spiked before declining. Service sector inflation has long been higher than goods and also spiked during Covid and also declined. Both inflations are now climbing and will continue for 6-12 months. He is certain of this given tariffs and slower globalization. The worst thing is for the Fed to cut interest rates aggressively only to reverse this later. Also, 72% of CPI components are rising faster than the 2% inflation target. A real weakening in labour will lead to serious interest rate cuts, though. History shows inflation will rise: the inflation spike of the 1970s from the oil crisis, then the spike in the late-1970s and early 1980s. All this will mean the Fed will keep rates higher for longer. But will this inflation slow the economy? Most participants in the market don't care. Is gold hitting new highs because of inflationary worries?
We try not to use target sell prices too much as it typically results in investors too early. Often, there are valid reasons for a move and selling just because a stock hits a somewhat random price does not make sense to us. EMP.A is a quality stable company doing well. Its recent dip makes it more attractive, and insider buying is positive. We would be quite comfortable buying in the $48.50 range. We would review it on news items or if it rose to $55+. Lower interest rates should help the stock.
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At about 17X earnings, CNR is right at the 5 year lows for their valuation with it trading as high as 28X at some times. Zooming out to a 10-year period, the valuation is essentially at the lower bound of the historical valuaiton range as well, with only a few instances of it dipping below this for a short period of time.
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We think of any of the industries that are going to be exposed to AI risks, the consulting space might be one of the more at risk areas. At the margins, clients are likely to increasingly consider whether they can use alternative means to get the type of value that consiltants provide. Obviously this does not mean it will supplant the entire industry but at least in the short-term we think it makes a lot of client rationalize and question their budgets in this area.
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The Risks of Penny Stocks 101: Susceptibility to Manipulation and Fraud
The combination of tight floats, low liquidity and low regulation makes penny stocks especially prone to market manipulation such as pump-and-dump schemes. Corrupt management and promoters can artificially drive up prices, attract unsuspecting investors and rapidly sell out, causing prices to collapse and major losses for those left holding shares.
Don’t believe us? There was once a company that at one point was worth $10 billion. Its business? Searching for Bigfoot. We can’t make this stuff up. Or, more recently, seven Nasdaq-listed micro-cap stocks — Concorde International Group Ltd., Ostin Technology Group Co. Ltd., Top KingWin Ltd., Skyline Builders Corp., Everbright Digital Holding Ltd., Park Ha Biological Technology Co. Ltd. and Pheton Holdings Ltd. — all dropped more than 80 per cent in a matter of weeks in July after first being pumped up and heavily promoted on social media sites.
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