SpaceX (SPCX)

Even if it has evangelical support, it can support instantly. Just look at Tesla the past week or so.

He's buying weakness as it goes through price discovery. This has evangelical support for this. Any news will see a huge price rise.

Loves Starlink and even the AI component. He's looking at this years in the future.

Don't do it. IPOs are the ultimate hype machine. Operating fundamentals just aren't there yet, an emerging company. Market opportunity could be huge, but earnings and free cashflow are fairly speculative. Multiple of 80+x revenue is stratospheric. 

Speculate in your own account if you want. But for your child, buy a compounder that can grow for 15-20 years.

Lock-up expiration was yesterday. She bought more, adding to her long-term holding. The earnings report was excellent across all segments. EBITDA was up. She understands why the stock fell on the news--all their spending plans--but the payback in the AI segment will be within a year. They're doubling subscribers. They beat operating margins. They had $14 billion in cloud service agreements this quarter alone, and she expects $60 billion annually in the future.

One day, it could be a huge winner, but doesn't know when. Tomorrow, a huge block of shares will be unlocked by insiders. So, tomorrow the stocl will likely get hit again (-13.61% today). Musk has seen success with Tesla, so he can access funding. They just signed 1.7 million internet subscribers, and on the mobile side they're gunning for Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobil customers.

What the company is doing is great. (He even uses Starlink at his cottage, it's fabulous.) Massively overvalued. Could possibly (but not probably) grow into its valuation over 5 years, and he wouldn't want to take the chance on it. 

It's the price you buy at that really counts. A lot of venture capital funds and private equity put $$ in. Once the lockup period is over, and they've made 10x their money, they'll head for the exit.

Sentiment counts. The IPO was priced at $135, jumped to $225 on its third day and is now $112.55 or -16.6% since the IPO. At the IPO, the market was willing to buy anything connected to the data centre. Not now.

He won;'t buy it. It's Elon Musk: if you believe in him, you believe in space exploration tech..

TSLA will probably merge with SPCX. Now that he's seen the numbers, SPCX is the better buy.

Doesn't own it, because he doesn't buy fresh IPOs. But he's watching it. The Cursor acquisition is training their models, which is good. The stock has settled after initial buying. Let it settle and see what their report earnings says.

He'd like to this and Tesla merge. There would be great synergies. Both companies trade at high multiples and volatilty. If it falls to $100, he will double down.