Nebius Group (NBIS)

Reported this morning, up 15% last he checked.

Think of them as intelligence farms and data centres. You can get a lot more $$ from renting the GPUs than people had thought, and the assets don't depreciate as quickly as feared. There's just so much demand.

CRWV was contentious when it came out, as it was a race between its interest expense on debt versus revenue generated from renting out compute. 

Likes both, prefers NBIS. A bit more responsible with its balance sheet.

It reports Wednesday. Is up 111% this year. They a have major $2 billion deal with Nvidia to develop knowledge factories.

Hybrid, full-stack, AI cloud platform. $27B order from META. His price target is $177.

Has done well. Be careful. Not a long-term hold. There's a reason MSFT is renting from them and not building the data centres themselves. It's a commodity business over time. Not the best proposition in the value chain.

Tactically, the golden time to own. So hold on, don't trim yet. But keep an eye on the trigger for when to get out.

He once called this too speculative, but they've been winning a lot of orders.

The deal prices tonight. Yesterday's major contract (comments posted) requires capital to execute, and they're comfortable with the company maintaining financial flexibility. They view yesterday's rally as excessive and today's decline as overdone. With a 45-50% conversion premium across two tranches, dilution is limited unless the stock rises 45%+ (though they doubt investors would mind in that scenario). Coupons are low and provide tax-deductible interest. The stock's volatility remains frustrating, but they believe this is the right move following such a significant contract win. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

She prefers the bitcoin miners, as their business model is a bit less risky. Both of these names look pretty attractive here, as H100 and H200 chip prices are still going up. So there's a bit more upside in the short term. Over the cycle, they don't have demand locked in. They're investing a lot of capex, and though demand is there today, the future is uncertain.

CRWV has the backing of NVDA, so it may be a bit better on risk/reward. Both have similar exposure.

These stocks are overvalued. A Mag 7 company will slow down the data centre build and this will cut shares in half.

It's losing too much money and is risky. Look elsewhere.

Too speculative and is losing money.

They will keep getting contracts.

Builds data centres, buys NVDA chips, and then signs contracts with hyperscalers. There's so much demand for AI, that if you have capacity the way Nebius does, then the world's your oyster. Not a small company, but higher up the risk scale than his firm typically plays.

It comes down to when supply matches demand -- 10 years, or just 3-4?