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Director & Portfolio Manager at Private Wealth Management, ScotiaMcleod
Member since: Jun '09 · 3747 Opinions
It's amazing that earnings growth estimates have moved from high teens to 25% or so for the year. That's what's really driven much of this market move for the past couple of months.
Really hard to say where energy prices will be. If you look at the futures curve, there's an expectation of oil being at least in the $70s for later this year. That's what the market's working with at this point. But geopolitical events are very hard to predict, so who knows where we'll be in a few months?
It's a bit of a K-shaped economy. Accumulated inflation over the years has had an impact on the consumer. The consumer discretionary sector is relatively weak compared to others such as technology (which involves more enterprise spending). If you're invested in the consumer discretionary space, be careful.
Money's flowing into more growth industries and sectors at this point. A lot of defensive areas such as healthcare have been slowing down somewhat.
Share price is below 200-day MA, which is also falling -- technical structure looks weak. High-quality med-tech company, strong business. Guidance cut on Watchman stroke-reducing device, and that's hurt the stock price. Broken momentum. Need to at least see a basing pattern.
VSP is hedged, VFV is not. CAD has has some weakness over the long term, and has been weak so far this year. So it really depends on outlook of USD vs. CAD. He'd rather hold the US version where there is no hedging; long term, the USD can remain pretty firm against the CAD.
He'd be cautious around owning a passive index like this, just because valuations are a bit high. About 45-50% of this ETF is in tech or tech-related stocks. Could make sense for a portion of your portfolio. However, he'd rather go with something more equal weight and where the exposure to tech/growth is a bit more muted.
VSP is hedged, VFV is not. CAD has has some weakness over the long term, and has been weak so far this year. So it really depends on outlook of USD vs. CAD. He'd rather hold the US version where there is no hedging; long term, the USD can remain pretty firm against the CAD.
He'd be cautious around owning a passive index like this, just because valuations are a bit high. About 45-50% of this ETF is in tech or tech-related stocks. Could make sense for a portion of your portfolio. However, he'd rather go with something more equal weight and where the exposure to tech/growth is a bit more muted.
It goes back to the fact that there's been some profit-taking over the past month or so. Still up 50% over last 12 months. Long-term, clean-energy/renewable theme makes a lot of sense. Fallen to around the 200-day MA, still pretty attractive from a technical perspective with its higher highs and higher lows.
Likes the name. Stock's come down right to the 200-day MA, which has provided support historically. Rotation from defensive to growth has been pretty intense recently. Trades ~18x forward PE, with ~14-15% growth. Attractive valuation. Healthcare names give you defense, plus some healthy growth. You don't want to be just in tech.
Berkshire has always been about Warren Buffett and what he buys/sells. New management has made some substantial changes, notably adding to GOOG. Pretty flat over past year, actually negative at this point. 200-day MA very sideways to slightly trending down and rolling over.
A bit of uncertainty right now. Stan, of course, prefers to choose his own stocks. Long term, BRK.B worked. But now it's wait and see.
Still holds, but took about half off the table a couple of months ago. Now, it's right at 200-day MA. Silver can benefit if real rates fall (not happening) and geopolitical risk remains elevated (happening).
He'll be watching the technicals to decide whether to keep holding or to take off the rest of the position.