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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert)

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COMMENT
TSX hitting new highs, S&P not.

Two months ago, who would've thought we'd be at record highs for the TSX, with the S&P up ~20%, NASDAQ up ~28%? The S&P has rebounded nicely, a little more in fact than the TSX since those April lows. The S&P has had a really great run, and trying to reach those all-time highs again (we're 2% away) is a bit tougher. Compare that to the TSX, which has lagged the last couple of years.

COMMENT
US-China trade issues have been worked through?

Yes, he thinks so. It looks as though they have a deal in place, pending final approvals. All eyes are on that, and we'll see what happens. Some other countries still need to reach agreements.

COMMENT
Mood of the markets.

Recession fears are easing, inflation numbers are cooling to a certain extent, and the labour market is very steady in the US. That economic backdrop is still strong, and that's what's carrying the markets these days.

COMMENT
Geographic exposure.

He is moving a little out of the US and TSX, simply because he sees valuation discounts outside NA. So he's looking at European and international markets. An uncertain US dollar helps those markets in terms of investment. Falling interest rates outside NA also helps.

He doesn't look for particular countries or regions, he's more company-specific.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Great numbers yesterday, as well as an all-time high. Still likes it. Canadians continue to downshift spending into more affordable channels. 60% of sales from private labels, which increases margins and differentiates themselves from competitors (not that there are many). International expansion into Dollar City in Latin America is good for long-term growth.

Premium valuation of 41x forward earnings. Sees 15% growth. To add, wait for better pricing opportunity.

WAIT

Oil's been under pressure, and so have energy stocks, due to concerns about global economy. All these names are in a downswing, but you're getting a pretty nice dividend here of over 5%. 200-day MA is falling, and price is just below that, so may be important inflection point to see if it breaks above. If so, would be a positive technical indicator.

Potential geopolitical rumblings around the world could put push oil price up, but that's just speculation. Sentiment on energy is rather weak. OPEC's not helping by increasing production. Valuation is very cheap compared to last 10 years and to the indices; but that doesn't mean to jump in there right now. Need more evidence of an upswing by market understanding that the global economy is not going to fall off a cliff.

WEAK BUY

Hasn't had a chance to look closely at yesterday's earnings. Stock's at a 52-week, if not all-time, high today. Looks interesting, given the cloud space it's in. Not expensive at 2x PEG, with forward PE of 29-30x. Earnings growth rate ~16%.

Technically, meets his criteria. 200-day MA is trending higher, and price is above that. High beta, volatile.

DON'T BUY

Paying about 99 bps MER for a covered call strategy, giving you a 9-10% dividend yield. A lot of investors are really attracted to that yield. But when you compare the covered call strategy against the underlying securities, you'll find that a lot of the time you'll do better just owning the underlying healthcare index. Covered calls mean you get struck out without realizing some of the upside of names in the portfolio.

If you need the income, fine. If not, just own the underlying stocks or index -- pay less in management fees, capture upside. Over time, that will give you a better total return.

He does own healthcare, but in a very specific space. See his Top Picks. Healthcare is fairly undervalued compared to history, mainly because we have many different industries within the healthcare space. Big pharma, biotech, distributors, medical devices, etc. Some are doing extremely well, and some not at all. 

WEAK BUY

Bottomed in March 2024, moved very quickly upwards since then. Up ~45% in last 12 months. Still upside to silver. Acquisition is helping in terms of synergies. Prefers bullion, as miners can face operational and management challenges. See his Top Picks.

WATCH
Why going opposite to the index?

Extremely well run. Shares pulling back from highs once Buffett announced retirement. Share price at 200-day MA, an inflection point. You have to understand that it's a fairly concentrated conglomerate of companies, including AAPL (though position was trimmed). Value strategy, which does well in time of uncertainty and higher interest rates; not so much when growth is on the boil with S&P being driven by tech.

Likes it long term, but big overhang on new management right now. If drops below 200-day MA, investors need to pay attention. Also tied to your outlook on AAPL.

WEAK BUY

Well run, paying ~22 bps. Basket of high-dividend-paying Canadian names. Note that there are a lot of banks in here, about 43%. Plus another 10% insurance. Yield is around 5%.

Great strategy, though he prefers XEI.

BUY

Less exposed to financials than VDY, so you get more diversification.

PARTIAL SELL

Basket of gold miners in North America, 45 holdings in total, with 64% in Canada and 28% in the US. Gold has performed extremely well over the last 1-2 years, bit of a crowded trade now. Start looking elsewhere. See his Top Picks.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 06/24, Up 15%)

Trades at 34x forward PE, with 20% growth rate starting next year. Technicals are positive. Shares are above 200-day MA, which is trending higher. AWS growth is reaccelerating again. Automation is improving margins. Ads are high margin and boosting profitability. Prime membership is its ecosystem, and very powerful.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 06/24, Down 31%)

He sold on a negative technical formation, when shares started trading below a falling 200-day MA. Growth is weak, only 2-3%. Beer segment is really decelerating, as are wine/spirits. Premium names could suffer if consumers trade down in a weak economy. 35% acquisition of Canopy Growth may also be an overhang.

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