Director & Portfolio Manager at Private Wealth Management, ScotiaMcleod
Member since: Jun '09 · 3120 Opinions
The 3 words to describe the markets, particularly in the US, are stamina, tenacity and performance. Seeing great returns, really driven by the mega-cap stocks in the US with the S&P up about 18%. But when you take away the Magnificent 7, it's only about an 8-9% return so far this year.
NASDAQ's up 24%, a little less after today's move. The Dow's up only 5%, which speaks to the fact that the Dow doesn't have that much tech compared to the S&P 500.
Sees some substantial opportunities. At the same time it's complex, because there's some significant risk. Looking at the segments within technology, sees a lot of potential in cloud computing, AI and cybersecurity. But the high valuations are something to be careful of.
When you look at the S&P 500 Info Technology Index, we're seeing 20-year highs in PE, price-to-cashflow, and price-to-sales ratios. Something you have to watch out for.
Generally speaking, sees global GDP growth being solid for the year. Advanced countries being a little bit stronger than developing countries.
Inflation's moderating, as we saw today with the CPI number being a little less than expected. The first decline since May 2020, so that's good news and should lead to lower interest rates. Of course, we already saw the BOC and ECB cut rates last month. Should see some rate cutting in the US at some point this year.
If you have a 60% or 80% weighting in tech, that may not be the most appropriate weighting depending on your time horizon. Tech is expensive by a lot of degrees, so you want to look at other sectors whether financials, industrials, or healthcare. There are a lot of other growth stories out there, outside of tech.
Lagged peers. Lost ground to NVDA and AMD in CPUs and GPUs in the AI chip market. Market skeptical of a turnaround. EPS forecast ~10-11%, tepid compared to others. PEG ratio still expensive. Technically not great that it's below 200-day MA and that average is moving sideways to downward.
Focus is on 3 factors: high ROE, low earnings variability, and low financial leverage. QUAL is in USD; for CAD, look at XQLT. Holdings include AAPL, NVDA, and MSFT.
See his Top Picks.
Focus is on 3 factors: high ROE, low earnings variability, and low financial leverage. QUAL is in USD; for CAD, look at XQLT. Holdings include AAPL, NVDA, and MSFT.
See his Top Picks.
From a taxation standpoint in a non-registered portfolio, it lets you defer capital gains via a return of capital. These types of strategies are quite efficient, as you're getting dividends as well as deferred capital gains instead of interest.
Basket of Canadian banks. Getting the yield from the banks, and overlaying an option premium on top of that. With the covered call, there's the risk of the ETF portfolio being struck out of its holdings too early. If you need the income, then a covered call strategy may make sense. If you don't need the income, don't get attracted by the yield itself.
Often the underlying securities perform better than the ETF. See ZEB.
Basket of Canadian banks, equal weight, no covered call. One-year return is 13.3%. Whereas the ZWB, which applies a covered call strategy, has a one-year return of 9.1%
If you're looking for something safe, for 1-2 years and aside from GICs, he'd recommend ZST or ZST.L (this version accumulates the units). Yield would be ~4.9-5%. Very safe, very short-term with 3-4 month, investment-grade corporate bonds. Inexpensive. A way to get a diversified basket of bonds.
If you're looking for something safe, for 1-2 years and aside from GICs, he'd recommend ZST or ZST.L (this version accumulates the units). Yield would be ~4.9-5%. Very safe, very short-term with 3-4 month, investment-grade corporate bonds. Inexpensive. A way to get a diversified basket of bonds.
Likes the chart. 200-day MA trending higher, stock price has held above the 200-day having tested it twice this year and bounced off. He continues to accumulate at this level. Medium-term, oil price should continue higher. Strong financial performance and management. Yield is 4.2%, robust, and shareholder-friendly share buybacks.
Stock can really move around, tremendous beta relative to the S&P. Recently jumped above 200-day MA, but that average continues to move south. EV market has softened, competition increasing from China and elsewhere. Expensive.
A basket of US dividend stocks, fairly cheap MER. At first glance, some of the names look quite fine. On the right track with the high dividend strategy. Comparing this one to the S&P, this ETF is more diversified away from tech.
He doesn't own this, not because he doesn't like it, but there are so many ETFs to choose from. So he's not intensely familiar with this one.