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Director & Portfolio Manager at Private Wealth Management, ScotiaMcleod
Member since: Jun '09 · 3814 Opinions
The inflation numbers have been somewhat benign. Expectations for a rate hike have been pushed out. The interest rate environment is beneficial. Oil prices coming down from peaks would be a tailwind for equities. Any volatility from geopolitics, September weakness, and midterms is normal and not thesis-changing.
Probably won't see lower rates in the near future. Likely flat for the time being.
Going back to 1950, midterm election years tend to have about a 15% drawdown. We had a 9% drawdown earlier this year, which was a pretty heavy almost-correction. September, right before the midterms, is also seasonally soft. Over the last 10 years, on average, September is a negative month. He wouldn't be surprised to see sideways movement or a bit of a pullback before those elections.
One thing to note is that the 6-12 months after midterms tends to be the strongest period in the 4-year presidential cycle.
Oil prices are a wild card, as it really depends what's happening in the world. Looking at futures markets, oil is expected to come down to the $70 level. It did come down, but then went back up.
Base case is that things will continue to be resolved as time goes by. Oil prices should calm down into the $70s.
Share price is falling below falling 200-day and 50-day MAs. Technically, he'd be challenged to consider this name right now. 55% dividend cut removes that worry for the time being. Telecom space is a tough neighbourhood for earnings growth. Telus projecting only 1-2% earnings growth over next few years.
Wait for a basing pattern, reassess at that point.
Dividend strategy within Canada. More banking and financials than in XEI. Financials (36%), insurance (15%). Financials in Canada have had quite a big run, valuations are getting somewhat stretched. Might want to take some profits if you're overweight.
XEI is slightly more diversified in its dividend payers. Financials (25%), insurance (6%). Banking is not the highest exposure. Might provide a little more upside here. Lower MER of 22 bps.
XDV is a dividend strategy within Canada. More banking and financials than in XEI. Financials (36%), insurance (15%). Financials in Canada have had quite a big run, valuations are getting somewhat stretched. Might want to take some profits if you're overweight.
XEI is slightly more diversified in its dividend payers. Financials (25%), insurance (6%). Banking is not the highest exposure. Might provide a little more upside here. Lower MER of 22 bps.
International, but outside North America. Largest geographic weightings are Japan and South Korea. UK and rest of Europe is in there as well. Well diversified. He likes international markets, and it's something NA investors forget about. This ETF has been outperforming the S&P 500 since September 2025. Percentage exposure depends on your risk tolerance.
(You may find less expensive offerings in US-domiciled international ETFs.)
Likes Mexico for the idea of near-shoring back to the US. South Korea ETFs are a nice place to be, if you're OK with the volatility (things move very quickly).
But he tends to focus on regions, not specific countries. His firm owns emerging market, equity, and international ETFs. They don't usually get too granular on specific countries, as they prefer to buy individual names rather than individual countries.
Popular name, mentioned a lot in media. Stock moves around quite a bit, volatile. Popped above 200-day MA on earnings results. Yet 200-day MA still trending lower. Valuation of ~90x forward PE, with high growth rate. But if anything goes bump in the night here, the stock will be in trouble.
Look for better risk/reward parameters. See his Top Picks.
Consumer staple, stable services and products. Not a bad chart -- rising 200-day MA, price is above 50-day. Single-digit growth rates, so not the type of name he looks for (unless valuation is very cheap). Trades at 20x forward PE, with ~9% growth. PEG ratio is 2x.
Better growth names such as COST or WMT.