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Stock Opinions by Stan Wong

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COMMENT
Market enthusiasm.

A lot of it is earnings. A few months ago, earnings estimates weren't quite as high as they are today. In March we were worried about geopolitical events around the world, but right now markets are trading through that.

It really underscores that geopolitical shocks tend to be short-term. It's earnings and fundamentals that drive markets.

COMMENT
Recent tech moves due to investors rediscovering AI or due to shortages?

Combination of the two. It's a story about a new capex spending cycle, electrification, near-shoring, and manufacturing trends. Capital spending has accelerated into the physical economy. 

COMMENT
Headwinds to economy.

We're a bit overbought technically, so could be due for a pause at some point. If oil remains above $100 for a sustained period, that could cause inflation to ratchet up. Geopolitical events can cause new concerns, along with US midterms in November.

That said, the third year of a presidential cycle (next year) is typically the best of the four for markets.

COMMENT
Higher energy prices vs. next quarter's earnings.

Inflation has ticked up a bit, but it's hard to say. When you look at futures markets, oil is forecast to be ~$70-80 by the end of this year. If those futures markets are correct, oil prices will ease and that should continue to help markets.

DON'T BUY

Still a high-quality franchise, but market expectations are setting lower. Weak chart technicals, with 200-day MA trending lower. Only 3-4% earnings growth over next few years. Long-term it'll come back, but caution is needed short-term.

He prefers LLY, which he owns. 

HOLD

His preference in the space.

WATCH

Pharmaceutical logistics. Recent rotation out of healthcare and into more exciting areas. He still sees 12-13% earnings growth, trading ~17x forward PE. A tad below 200-day MA, which is a bit concerning.

WAIT
Dropped 30% since it split.

AI agents are the real concern to a company like this. 200-day MA trendline starting to move lower, stock price is below that. Sees 16% growth. Long term, secular tailwinds from travel. Technicals make it hard to buy now. 

He prefers, and owns, EXPE.

HOLD

AI agents are the real concern to a company like this. 200-day MA still moving higher. Using AI to improve platform. Has performed a bit better than BKNG.

DON'T BUY

If they can extract value from shares by doing the spinoff, then that's the right move. 200-day MA is trending higher, but short-term lower lows and lower highs. The space has moved so far, so fast, he'd rather move to base metals.

See his Top Picks.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Technically, this one looks very strong. Hitting new highs, 200-day MA continues to move higher. Insurance gives you stable earnings and relatively cheap valuations. Yield is 3.5%, he expects dividend to move higher. A sturdy name, probably a better entry to be had.

He owns no insurance names right now, as the space rocketed up.

HOLD

Sideways and slightly downward lately. Still the dominant model in Canada. Higher energy and softness in Canadian economy are making consumers more value-focused. Expansion should help revenues and margins.

Main issue is valuation at 34x forward PE.

WATCH

Concern over earnings may explain drop today. Chart and 200-day MA still look intact. Very nice dividend. As with the rest of the market, have to be careful of overbought situations. Still sees double-digit growth. Watch the charts for entry points.

WAIT

Steady business, but the stock's not looking the same. 200-day MA trending lower, series of lower lows and lower highs. Market's looking for more exciting plays. Fundamentally sound. Sees 10% earnings growth, but a bit pricey at 27x forward PE.

Technicals would make it hard for him to start a position.

DON'T BUY

Includes China, Taiwan, India, and Brazil. Investors would do well to look beyond NA and at places like EMs. This ETF includes no South Korea, and you'd want that. Instead, take a look at XEM.

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