Richard Orrell

Lots going on this year. We came into 2026 looking ahead to the US midterm elections, always knowing that would bring some volatility to the markets. We had our eyes set on interest rate decreases for sure by the US Fed, and possibly by Canada's BOC. But that shifted immensely in the past couple of weeks, due to the inflationary impact of higher oil. 

Right now, the market is pricing out those interest rate cuts. For the US, that means not till 2027. The Fed's focus had been on the labour market as part of its dual mandate, but now that's shifted to inflation. There are actually some whispers out there that there might be some hikes.

Our market has been resilient. Between oil and gold, we have a natural hedge. Gold was ahead early, tailing off in February. But now we have energy taking the lead and holding.

The composite index has seen a modest pullback. As Canadians we tend to hold more Canadian equities in our portfolios, so we've been somewhat insulated from the global impact.

The price of oil is really going back and forth. US president's speech last night had mixed messages. It's really day by day.

He'd be looking at the VIX. Right now it's trading around 28-30. Needs to get back below 20 before the markets calm down.

Between closure of the Strait, capacity and infrastructure that have been taken out, and all this uncertainty, he doesn't see oil dropping substantially anytime soon.

He heard that constraints on helium, of all things, have impacted the semiconductor industry. There are these impacts downstream. Fertilizer stocks are doing well because supply is tight.

ETFs show their value in this type of environment, as you don't have to make bets on single stocks and their liquidity lets you sell when you want.

Canadian companies that have increased dividends for last 5 years at least. It's fine. But the MER is ~66 bps, while many others are cheaper.

See his Top Picks. Another one to consider is XDIV.

An ETF for Canadian dividends.

See his Top Picks.

Canadian names across all sectors, and not overly heavy in financials or energy. TSX has been a global standout, and it's had a pullback. If you're underweight Canada, this one is reasonable. Yield is 2.1%.

It's made up of single-stock ETFs in one package. Website lists current yield as almost 32%, and that's way too high and not sustainable. Don't trust the yield. Writing calls using "modest leverage" to generate returns. Tax factors are also complicated.

For him, the minute he hears "modest leverage" he's out. Though he has nothing against covered calls.

100% equity, very broad and global. If you're very young and can handle the volatility, you can use this. Good solution if you want a simple solution, set it and forget it. For older investors, don't count on it for income.

Instead, he uses the Vanguard version for its higher concentration to the US. 

Historically, 25% in Canada would have been too high. But it's the habit of putting $$ in every month that will be the real help to you, not necessarily what vehicle you put it in.

In general, ETFs hold a basket of 60-80 stocks. This is one he's looked at. Holds picks & shovels, but also software and data centres and energy. Exposure beyond just the US, which makes up 65% of holdings.

Trades in both US and Canada, and he'd recommend using the Canadian version. Relatively new to Canada, around longer in the US.

He uses this in client portfolios. High MER -- his rebuttal is that Pimco has access to parts of the income market that he never would.

Worries that it might be getting into private credit. Without doing a deeper dive, he can't comment fully. You'd have to use a fine-tooth comb to go through all holdings and understand exactly what you're buying.

Historically, he wouldn't have more than 10-15% Canada in a portfolio. It's extremely low, but we just haven't been the economic engine that the rest of the world can be. 

We've always been a slow-growth, low-volatility, grind-it-out type of country. Future growth won't be what we've seen recently.

Generates income from covered calls, which helps in this bumpy environment. Dampens the overall volatility of your portfolio. Not a big weight, just a tactical sleeve until markets get better.