CIO at Odyssey Capital Advisors
Member since: Sep '21 · 186 Opinions
Shares are down 7% after a mixed quarter after a slight miss on the top and a beat on the bottom; some softness in discretionary spending which is a little concerning. The street was expecting better from membership numbers. They have runway ahead and remain the best big-box retailer.
An interesting call and he wouldn't be surprised if YouTube became a leader. The only pull in live TV are live sports and business. The move into live sports, like WWE, is positive for Netflix; profits and not more subscribers has been their focus lately, while their content remains strong.
Cloud spending hasn't slowed at all. They have strong operating leverage. Sales were up 21% and EPS 48%. This keeps going up.
Today it is snapping a 7-day losing streak. All this bad news about China has been priced into the shares where iPhone sales are down 24% for the first 6 weeks of 2024 and 4th place in cell sales there. That's all in the shares. Apple will figure out AI later as they watch everyone else.
This rally can continue, but he expects a pullback late this month. We had a similar conversation 12 months ago. But it's interesting that industrials and transports are starting to break out. Take profits, but keep your core holdings.
Private equity is interesting here. They raised $59 billion in equity in Q4 and hold $200 billion in free cash flow to deploy. He just bought it.
Was upgraded today. Billings remain up for them. Shares are up 27% YTD. They bought $650 million worth of companies to end last year, and he's excited by that. Expects shares to rise further.
New managers in early March will focus on raising digital sales, which are only 7% of overall now. COST is a permanent compounder.
Cybersecurity will remain in strong demand. PANW is up 110% this year and he continues to like and own it. His favourite in this space. Has lots of government contracts.
Earnings haven't been great and the PE has declined. Tough comps face energy stocks going into 2024. But M&A will be accretive to the major energy names. Don't buy an energy ETF, but choose energy names.
Underwriting is bottoming. You can position here for 2024.
Handsets are bottoming, so they will be back up again. Same goes with internet of things and autos. QCOM is a cheap stock and up only 18% this year.
As rates decline, banks will benefit, but he likes GS for its exposure to capital markets.
You should look beyond tech which is pulling back now. Healthcare offers earnings growth ahead, like device companies. UNH has lagged this year due to utilization rates as medical expenses go higher.