CIO at Odyssey Capital Advisors
Member since: Sep '21 · 246 Opinions
Is -7% this year. It's all about 30-year mortgages above 7%. 69% of their delivered homes this year were below $400,000. But it's a tough hill to climb with these high rates.
Will benefit from more M&As expected in 2025.
They delivered a great quarter. The bar was set low. Cloud is up 35% YOY. $13 billion in capex and their AI offering is producing, despite talk of GOOG lagging the AI race. It trades at 22x PE. YouTube missed last quarter, but up this one.
Shares are up only 15% this year, well behind peers. Last quarter was solid with 10% EPS growth. He wants to see what AI and enterprise spend are. He expects 30% Azure growth, good.
They just reported a messy quarter: they beat top and bottom, but guided lightly and not great. Few chip companies are winning, except Nvidia.
They beat top and bottom and raised guidance. A nice quarter. Their key drugs were way up. They have a strong pipeline.
They report next week. Revenue growth this year is 22% and EPS 32%. They know how to monetize AI.
Likes it because they are growing near 9% in the professional segment, though it has a large DIY business.
Is up 25% this year. Likes it for lower interest rates, and their homes are affordable (70% of their homes cost under $400,000) during a housing shortage.
They cut forecasts and changed their CEO. This continues to get punished (glad he sold it last spring). An aging population is cutting deeply into their margins. Recently, they were talking about breaking up the company. Let's see if the new CEO can right the ship.
They beat on the topline, but missed the bottom, because China was -15%, though it was expected. Organic sales were fine and reiterated guidance. Trades at a too-pricey 24x forward. He doesn't like staples, but continues to like this.
All paths lead back to NVDA: the power centres and grid. Have great free cash flow. It's hard to fight this stock, that it's gone up too much. Still is a great opportunity.
There were concerns over weak retail numbers, but AWS some re-acceleration, this profit centre. There's upside to come, though there's a slight concern with Walmart taking market share in retail. Amazon has many levers to pull, like ads.
Today, they reported their best quarter ever: 15% revenue growth, subscriber growth 14% and they beat. They can invest grow at the same time. Their library is rich. It's expensive, but streaming live sports over the holidays will be a major catalyst. Has a 30% growth rate which justifies the high valuation.
They're spending at least $80 billion of capex in AI to keep up with peers, but this has been overhang on the stock. Shares are up only 13% this year, lagging Mag 7 peers. It's early--we don't know what's going on with their AI, but MSFT's suite of services have always been aimed at operational efficiency. We'll see how their AI plays out in coming quarters.