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Stock Opinions by Brendan Caldwell

COMMENT
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
Markets. Lots of calls for recession, and maybe there will be one. Doesn't necessarily mean the stock market has to do badly. Stock market tends to anticipate the actual economy by some 18 months. We can see a recession in 2023, but he can see the stock market doing well, for no other reason than everyone's so negative about it. He thinks much of the negativity has been factored in: higher interest rates, war in Ukraine, China, Covid. Unless there's something new and unseen, the market's taking all this very much in stride. Tech stocks with higher multiple earnings have been under much more pressure for multiple contraction. Some of the more dividend-strong and dividend-increasing stocks will continue to outperform in 2023.
Unknown
COMMENT
Growing consensus for a short-lived recession? Some of that optimism comes from his observing that optimists tend to be richer than pessimists. If there's a really bad recession that goes into a depression, stocks aren't going to do that great. It would be a recession like we've never seen before. It's still very hard to hire people. Even in the tech sector, which has been pretty aggressive about laying off, the tech companies that actually make stuff are finding it easier to hire people. It's not a case of too many workers for too few jobs, but rather the other way around.
Unknown
DON'T BUY
BlackBerry
There's got to be a market for the old among us who prefer a keyboard. He wants it to do well. BlackBerry, unlike its competitors, is made by workers who aren't chained to their factories and forbidden to leave. How can anyone in good conscience buy an Apple product? Frustrating stock. Security is important, and you'd think this would be the moment they could capitalize on that. It may be the baby thrown out with the bathwater, but value stocks can take a long time to come back.
electrical / electronic
COMMENT
Canadian technology. The most frustrating two words to ever be put together. Whether it's Nortel, Mitel or BlackBerry, we've had leadership in so many areas over his career, and it's frustrating that we can't take our technology to the next level and become a true world-beater. Not sure if it's market size, government and industry not working together, or lack of depth of management. Lack of world-class leaders is a national frustration. Perhaps government should get out of the way of business. Though BlackBerry's struggles are its own fault, they are still indicative of a more systemic problem.
Unknown
COMMENT
TFSA stocks for a beginner investor? Two stocks would be DIS and ATZ. Nobody likes DIS, it's sold off 50%. But everyone still gets excited about Disney. DIS will be a good turnaround. He owns ATZ, stock's done well.
Unknown
BUY
Walt Disney Co.
For a beginner's TFSA. Nobody likes DIS, it's sold off 50%. But everyone still gets excited about Disney. Will be a good turnaround.
entertainment services
BUY
Aritzia Inc.
For a beginner's TFSA. Stock's done well.
specialty stores
WEAK BUY
Never a terrible thing to own a company that you have to send money to. Invest in companies that you know. Has survived all kinds of winds of change. Coming out a dominant player in cable industry. Shaw takeover will probably happen, and will probably be a positive. Lots of money flowing in.
Cable
HOLD
Hard to keep track of all the Brookfields. Split was to try to create greater transparency and value. BAM is the asset management business. It's the Coco-Cola to Coca-Cola Enterprises. Coco-Cola did better than Enterprises, because it was the brand and held the licenses. Similarly, BAM is not capital intensive. It doesn't own the properties, it only manages them. ROI should be much higher, especially if interest rates keep going up. People are generally betting on this one being the winner.
management / diversified
COMMENT
REITs and rising rates. The property business, in general, is going to be a tough slog simply because, while interest rates may have been taken into account by the general markets, real estate is very interest rate sensitive. There's no telling how occupancy rates are going to go over the next while. For example, downtown Toronto office towers in general are not full.
Unknown
BUY
Visa Inc.
V vs. MA Better domestic (that is, North American) exposure than MA. The NA economy is going to be stronger. Technology leader. If you use something yourself a lot, it's not a bad start for a stock choice. If you thought Europe was on the brink of a great recovery, you'd bet on MA as it's more prevalent there.
other services
DON'T BUY
Mastercard Inc.
MA vs. V Visa has better domestic (that is, North American) exposure than MA. The NA economy is going to be stronger. Visa is a technology leader. If you use something yourself a lot, it's not a bad start for a stock choice. If you thought Europe was on the brink of a great recovery, you'd bet on MA as it's more prevalent there.
other services
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 30/22, Down 27%) 800-pound gorilla in the derivatives space. Bet heavily on crypto. In technology, he tries to buy the picks and shovels providers. So, companies that will do well agnostic of which technology ends up triumphing. CME may be down, but it's not going out of business.
Unknown
PAST TOP PICK
Quanta Services
(A Top Pick Mar 30/22, Up 9%) He keeps adding it to his fund every month. Basic tech. Utility pole communications, solar panels, nothing too high flying. A vast percentage of the US solar panel business, so will benefit from Biden administration blocking imports. Another example of picks and shovels in tech.
misc industrial products
PAST TOP PICK
Micron Technology
(A Top Pick Mar 30/22, Down 35%) Device growth has been weak, and chip makers have not done well. Good company to be with when there's a rebound. But now's not the time.
computer software / processing
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