Brendan Caldwell

Last time we saw this was in March 2020, when everybody thought we were all going to die. Markets came back fairly quickly from that. This has a bit of a different feel to it.

We haven't had a proper bear market in NA since 2009. We've had 16 years of a bull market punctuated by some minimal corrections. So it could be that we're seeing the market turn over here, possibly heading for a bear market.

The Mag 7 have really been the ones leading the market downward. Those were the ones with the highest multiples and that have been lagging the market at least since the inauguration.

Other sectors are doing relatively well. With all the tariffs on retail products that are generally made in developing countries, it's surprising that dollar stores and COST are actually up today.

There are some good and proper times to panic, and he's not sure that today is one of them. If the tariffs had been less robust than feared, the markets would be on a tear the other way. Right now, he has a reasonable amount of cash (between 20-40%) in portfolios.

If you're adding to your portfolio on a regular basis, either by investing cash that's stored up or by regular contributions, these correction days are actually really helpful. These days provide excellent buying opportunities, even if markets go down further tomorrow. 

For stocks that you'd always wanted to get in on, today's not a half bad day to start. If you have $10k to invest, invest $2k today. It'll be easier to make the next decision tomorrow if you started with a smaller one today. If the market goes down, at least you have $8k left; if the market goes up, thank goodness you started to buy.

Down because everything's down. Concern that in an economic slowdown people will be slower to pay off credit cards, and there will be less travel. Doesn't have the credit risks that banks do. 

Down because everything's down. Concern that in an economic slowdown people will be slower to pay off credit cards, and there will be less travel. Doesn't have the credit risks that banks do. 

Funny that people who bought a year ago have to attach explanatory bumper stickers. If it's going to be a good buy at $200-225, it's a good buy at $265; you're buying it for the longer term. He can't come to terms with the valuation.

If you decide you want to buy, put in 10% today, and you'll feel better. If you've wanted it for a long time, and you don't pull the trigger today, you'll forever hesitate. It's just psychology. 

His father has a wonderful expression, "It's the second mouse that gets the cheese." Not sure tariffs are enough to provide continuing support for an EV car maker when the Chinese are doing it so much cheaper.

You'd think it had nothing to do with tariffs, and he's a bit pressed to explain why it's down today. It has the feel of a capitulation moment, where people are using tariffs as an excuse to sell. Baby out with bathwater.

You'd have thought they'd be hit more by tariffs, as Trump hammers on that many drug components are made overseas. So the market must be thinking tariffs will benefit pharma, to explain why this name is up on such a tremendously down day. Keeping people guessing and on a knife's edge isn't a bug of the current US administration, it's a feature.

His healthcare investments focus on health management like UNH and medical devices.

Yes. They didn't stop paying dividends even during the 2008 financial crisis. Except for MFC, all financial services companies also kept their dividends. At the best of times, it's a severe, career-interrupting move to cancel a dividend. For a Canadian bank, it would be catastrophic. 

Some are stronger than others. RY is the 800-pound gorilla that all the others are chasing. TD has had its issues in the US; but you'll notice it's up from the time US sanctions were imposed. All are resilient, a fiercely protected species.

If you really want to buy this name because you believe in its approach to AI, or that concerns are overblown on advertisers not being as robust, or that Mag 7 concerns are over done, then he'd suggest (not recommend) you buy some today. Though you may be early.

Tomorrow may be a tremendous up day, or another down day. He doesn't know. Start with 10%. You don't have to be 100% right. If it's worth buying here, it'll be worth buying 20% higher or lower, assuming the Western world continues. And despite the best efforts of the US administration, it will.

Exited at beginning of March, with lots of pressure on the tech sector.

In times of volatility, exchanges actually do very well because the trading goes up. Derivatives exchanges tend to be higher margin, as their products are usually proprietary.

With DeepSeek, the whole sector got hit really hard, taking a while to snap back. Metrics in underlying business still strong.

Core holding, along with SU and TOU. Of oil & gas, gas is probably the better bet right now with LNG coming onstream. Trump says a lot of things and, on the broken-clock theory, some of it may be accurate. But you can't just turn on the tap.

Considerable underinvestment in oil for a while, particularly in Canada. PM Carney is no particular friend of the sector. If onshoring of all this production comes back to America, they're going to have to power it somehow. And there won't be enough windmills, nuclear plants, or solar panels to do it.

Owned in the past, but now he owns BSX. Likes the sector, not getting hit as hard today as many other things. Aging population will propel demand for medical devices.