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Stock Opinions by Brendan Caldwell


It's more about interest rates than a slowing economy. Medium/long-term, US interest rates are heading higher--higher for longer. So stocks that are sensitive to rates will remain vulnerable; fixed-income will not safe, though are supposed to be. He's focusing on companies that grow earnings and dividends. Growth is more important than the actual dividend level. He's overweight energy in Canada, and he likes private equity and insurance in America. Long-term, Canadian banks always end up on top.

Onex Corp

Likes the private equity space. Has rallied 30% since June, but still trading at a discount to NAV. Has a long track record. A great way for investors to participate in areas that are closed to them, making private equity public.

mngmnt / diversified

He prefers trucking, though CP now has an integrated network across North America after the KC deal. But the consumer sector is less robust now. CP is probably good medium/long-term, but will lag short-term.

Bank of America

All banks were tainted with the US regional bank meltdown. Rising rates aren't helping. Normally, higher rates are better for banks but that many not be happening this time since some US mortgages rates are locked in for 30 years. We need to see rates stabilize before the banks bounce back. Take your losses now before tax-loss selling happens in December.

Telus Corp

Telus has been great for him as a customer. All telcos are getting hit. Unlike Rogers and BCE, Telus lacks the same integration or diversity of business. It will probably bounce at some point, but it will take a while before such "safe" dividend stocks bounce.

telephone utilities
Shopify Inc.

All tech has enjoyed a monster bounce this year, including SHOP. Canadian tech stocks don't go from strength to strength and have a life cycle instead, given catch-up in technology and depth of management. He's never owned this, not a fan of Canadian tech stocks.

Bank of Nova Scotia

Banks are protected in this country. BNS does business in Latin America which is a trickier place to do business than North America. It will take a while for any bank here or America or anywhere to bounce back (given interest rates).

Loblaw Companies Ltd

It's not their fault that food prices are so high. The bread-fixing scandal didn't help their PR. With long lines at food banks, people need a scapegoat. He owns ATD instead. This sector will remain unpopular even if it makes money.

food stores
McKesson Corp
(A Top Pick Oct 28/22, Up 11%)

Still likes it. The drug sector remains strong given an aging population and a flurry of new drugs.

wholesale distributors
Tractor Supply
(A Top Pick Oct 28/22, Down 8%)

He sold it. They enjoy good traffic, but aren't see big-ticket purchases by consumers. This is economically sensitive.

merchandising / lodging
Carlisle Companies
(A Top Pick Oct 28/22, Up 10%)

Is off its highs and lows. Is a slowdown in discretionary purchase like fixing your roof, purchases which will be postponed.

management / diversified
Emera Inc

All energy stocks, from renewables to this one, are down. Pays a roughly 6% dividend, and it's safe. Generally, you can start to buy these. It's all about interest rates, which continue to rise. Dividend stocks are competing with GICs and other bank deposits offering 6% yields. Doubts that any utilities will cut dividends, but the share prices may come down further. You can buy a tranche, cautiously.

Blackrock Inc.

The largest investment management company in the world. This could come under pressure, because these large firms could face more competition, because such firms can't get any bigger. You're better off with a smaller such company.

Financial Services

Canadian energy will remain strong; the smaller players will get more bang for the buck.  The Saudis and Russian are colluding to keep energy prices high, which will continue for the short term, at least.

oil / gas
Aritzia Inc.

An ugly chart this year. Retail in general will be under pressure. He can't tell how well ATZ will do. ATZ has done very well historically and wishes them well.

specialty stores
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