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Stock Opinions by Brendan Caldwell

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COMMENT
Iran-related volatility over?

Yes, unless it isn't ;)  Depends what the post from Truth Social is at 3 am. The most likely scenario is that we're through this particular bizarre phase. Whatever "exogenous shock" is going to hit the market probably won't be Iran, but could be something totally different. There will be a bit of a hangover in the markets, just because after these traumatic events everyone's on a sort of mental high-alert.

Energy prices will probably continue to come down. Neither the US nor the president has any appetite to renew hostilities with Iran, as Trump really is looking down the barrel of the midterm elections. A lot of what happens in US foreign and domestic policy, as well as monetary policy, will be governed by the looming elections in early November. Those could determine whether Trump can continue to run things the way he has been, and he's going to do everything possible to achieve that.

COMMENT
Good sectors being ignored?

The pullback in the gold sector, for one. He's not asking anyone to catch a falling knife, but thinks the sector will continue to rally. The lack of faith in fiat currencies and government-issued currencies will be here for a while. Other stores of value will continue to be important.

COMMENT
Inflation.

We saw higher-than-expected inflation, thinks those numbers are understated. A lot of that inflation is because of supply constraints on oil, so it's not demand-driven. We may see inflation come back a bit, but governments aren't going to spend any less money.

WATCH

You can keep rolling up businesses, but what happens when the music stops? Now there's AI, but it can't be a complete solution. The business model will come back at some point; in the meantime, sees it building a base.

HOLD

Stock's run up because whoever wins the AI race, the chips need to be kept cool. The picks & shovels suppliers are the ones making the money.

HOLD

Slow and steady does win the race.

COMMENT

Fears of AI replacing people. It's more likely, though, that AI and people will work together. 

Instead, he owns ATRL.

HOLD

Fears of AI replacing people. It's more likely, though, that AI and people will work together. Owns this name because of nuclear exposure, which should provide a big business ramp for a while. Chart looks better than peers.

PARTIAL SELL

Very good earnings yesterday. One sector that AI is not likely to replace. Expanded into US -- a much more competitive, but larger, market. If you have a better investment idea, take some $$ off the table. 

COMMENT

Buying and selling.

If you're not sure whether to buy something or not, buy a little bit. It gives you confidence to buy a bit more, and a bit more, as you ease your way into a position. 

Selling works exactly the same way. If it goes down, you're glad you sold some. If it goes up, you still own some.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 03/25, Up 17%)

Reason for huge drop off is a website that bypasses the whole exchange mechanism. But this new website is incredibly leveraged, unregulated, and incredibly risky.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 03/25, Up 35%)

Its highest-margin businesses are the ones that are growing the most. Raising a lot of capital, putting pressure on the stock. 

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 03/25, Up 0.55%)

Inflation is really hard out there. Real pressure to save money, and this name is among the low-cost providers. Sees it continuing to do well, despite a difficult environment for so many people.

BUY

Sees increasing demand for this type of service, with greater concerns about security. It troubles him that cities in Canada are not as safe as they used to be. Stock's likely to do well over time.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Has done better than peer consulting companies. Chart appears to be rolling over. But in his industry, "nobody ever got fired for buying IBM".

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