Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST-Q)

Likes the company, but has never owned the stock. It's always been screened out because of valuation. Trading today at 53x PE on this year's earnings. Great business model, and the street recognizes that.

You have to look at these companies in terms of what can go wrong. If we go into a sustained, negative economic period, there's going to be a lot of hurt on a company like this.

Has maintained a premium valuation for a long time. If you're a growth investor, you could buy this one, but he's not wild about the valuation. Wait for a market correction.

The PE is high, they can add 20-30 stores a year for 20-30 years. A huge runway worldwide. They do all they can for employees and shareholders. One of the best businesses in the world.

The PE is high, they can add 20-30 stores a year for 20-30 years. A huge runway worldwide. They do all they can for employees and shareholders. One of the best businesses in the world.

The PE is high, they can add 20-30 stores a year for 20-30 years. A huge runway worldwide. They do all they can for employees and shareholders. One of the best businesses in the world.

The PE is high, they can add 20-30 stores a year for 20-30 years. A huge runway worldwide. They do all they can for employees and shareholders. One of the best businesses in the world.

The PE is high, they can add 20-30 stores a year for 20-30 years. A huge runway worldwide. They do all they can for employees and shareholders. One of the best businesses in the world.

Great operation. Steady membership and store buildout growth. Very expensive; 45-47x PE last time he checked. Too high of a bar for him as a value investor. Risks of supply chains, labour, inventory, tariffs. 

Great stock. Incredible compounder of shareholder value over 4 decades. Recurring revenue from memberships, narrow assortment, and sharp pricing. Always looks expensive, but any day that ends in "y" is a good day to buy.

Great company, a staple. Pullback lately. Membership renewal has been great, and she's watching that. Ranks 10/10 on fundamentals. She'd buy. Upside potential still 13-14% from here. 

In addition to the 200-day MA, he looks at peaks and troughs. Look at the last low and the last high. The next high hit the previous high, so that's two relatively similar peaks. The stock may be below the 200-day MA (1st rule to sell), but it hasn't dropped below the last trough (2nd rule to sell). As long as it holds above the last trough, you're safe. 

Don't go into full panic right now. Hold for now; if it breaks that second rule, then get out.

COST is a large consumer staples name, but it trades at a high valuation of 49X forward earnings. Recently, we have been seeing large-cap names, particularly more stable and defensive names, being sold for higher-growth stocks, which helps to explain why the consumer staples, utilities, and healthcare sectors have been underperforming recently. We continue to like COST for a long-term holding, despite its high valuation, given its subscription model, consistency and execution. It may underperform in a strong bull market, but over a long-period of time, it has performed exceptionally. 
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