Finning Int (FTT.TO)

Biggest Caterpillar dealer. Had a good run. Used to own. His team starts following something when the valuation starts to get reasonable. Trades at a fairly high valuation, also cyclical. Can't tell if the market's calling the end of the cycle or it's just a temporary aberration.

Distributes Caterpillar products. Great run, stable stock. Could be a HALO company. Lots of uncertainty in Canada around infrastructure and energy.

He'd rather own CAT. This one's more an actual HALO.

Has had a lovely move from $45. Now run past its FMV. Stock has to hold at $78; if not, expect a bigger correction. Sell at that point. Trend of earnings forecast is flat.

Equipment dealers are a great place to be -- pass through inflation very well, good plays on mining and global growth. The theme has legs for the next 3-5 years. Buy, but at a lower level.

The market cycle model is essentially the business cycle with its 5 different phases. Phases 4 and 5 are the contraction phases, when you typically see the stock market coming under pressure. Phases 1, 2, and 3 are the expansion phases and they typically last a year. 

His team believes that last year was phase 1, so now we're in phase 2. This matters because industrials typically do well in phase 2. They're bullish on industrials generally.

Correlated with copper, and it set up nicely with where we were in the business cycle. Big breakout over the last 2 months. Good-looking chart with higher highs and lows. Sees further upside into August.

Repeatedly compares this to TIH, and TIH always comes out on top in terms of ROIC and dividend growth.

Q3 miss due to softness in Western Canada. Capital discipline. Copper activity has been pretty solid, but Trump means there's not going to be as much thirst to go green. Pricing power, but that's over for now. Doesn't see a lot of growth over next couple of years.

Good over the long term. If it's in your non-registered account, don't sell. Easier ways to make $$ over the next 12 months.

Because it's more focused on resources in Western Canada, has had a tougher time. Especially with the decline in mining, and oil & gas being very cyclical.

Excellent business that deals with Catipillar equipment. Very strong management team. Would recommend holding shares. Cyclical business that is a proxy to economy. Would recommend buying below $30/share/