
Managing Director at Kingwest & Company
Member since: Jul '18 · 185 Opinions
He doesn't own any. There's been a huge capital expansion, and that has to do with AI. At first, some of the chipmakers went crazy. Then the likes of CLS, MU and DELL got a lot of orders to build these data centres.
So what's happening right now is that people are asking will this continue? It'll continue, but at some point the capital expansion in the AI sector will slow down and roll over. There's only so much money. The way the sector is being priced is reminiscent of 1999.
Any inflation today is really just caused by geopolitical events (oil prices) that can go away at any moment. Core inflation seems to be dissipating a bit in the States. You have a new Fed chair, who came in under Trump, so Tim can't see him raising rates.
If they raise, it's to choke off a hot economy. But the economy's just hot in certain sectors. It's moving along pretty well in the States, but it's not overheating.
What the company is doing is great. (He even uses Starlink at his cottage, it's fabulous.) Massively overvalued. Could possibly (but not probably) grow into its valuation over 5 years, and he wouldn't want to take the chance on it.
It's the price you buy at that really counts. A lot of venture capital funds and private equity put $$ in. Once the lockup period is over, and they've made 10x their money, they'll head for the exit.
Premier Canadian bank, and it trades at that kind of valuation. BNS has had some issues. Change in management, change in focus. Cheapest of the banks on a PE basis.
It all depends on how long you're looking to own for. Even if you've made gains, hold on to what you have. He's sticking with RY.
Great company and he's made some $$ in it. That said, 80% of the variability will be the price of oil. Oil is jumping all over (to say the least ;). Thinks oil will stay up here, and CNQ should do fairly well. He's comfortable riding out the cyclicality, but have it as just one part of a diversified portfolio.
(Note the short timeframe.) In the process of buying SES, while at the same time tendering to be taken over. They actually have a lot of tenders. One Bay Street analyst states that tendering shouldn't be under $90 CAD (~$60 USD). Worth quite a bit more than where it's trading.
Expect more news releases about buyer interest for a takeout. Absolutely a long-term hold.