Nike Inc (NKE)

He sold this already. Doesn't see an earnings bump ahead. They didn't raise guidance. Was up 4.9% today, but doesn't believe in it. He lost a lot of money on this. Nike has too much competition.

Faces competition and consumers no longer paying jacked-up prices. In their last quarter, revenues were -3%, digital sales -9%, and Converse -35%. Shares are -33% this year. Leisurewear as a whole is weak. Fashion always changes. Nike could turn things around, though.

Still an expensive multiple. He doesn't like to buy fashion or clothing companies. Tastes change way too quickly. He doesn't understand the clothing industry. He doesn't even like to go shopping :)

So many good choices for stocks out there, you don't want to take the risk of this turnaround. Hasn't yet demonstrated it can turn the ship. Execution, marketing, and geographic problems.

Several levels of trouble. He added recently ~$45. Not looking for homeruns. Potential for it to get back up to mid-upper $50s is realistic. Still very expensive at 30x forward PE. Unless they can figure out the China headwinds, it will struggle. Every time it rallies, it's likely to a lower high. Selloffs will be to lower lows.

Growth story for decades, but now a mature clothing company. A trade, not an investment.

He made a mistake. He expected a turnaround, which is not happening fast enough. Shares could keep falling.

It has been a very challenged name for a long time and is well below its 200 day moving day average which is moving lower. Has 0% or negative growth. Consumer discretionary spending names in general are going through difficulty.

Don't confuse iconic brand-name recognition with business of Nike itself. Turnaround story. Won't trade at the premium it used to. Athletic world is a lot more fragmented. Not a structural long-term hold. Might be a tactical buying opportunity.

Tariffs took a bite out of its allure and exposed concentration risk. Upstarts are doing a good job taking market share from incumbents. Probably won't be hurt by holding.

Is -20% the past 6 months. The CEO is doing his best to turn things around and we need to wait up to 2 years. That's how poorly the company was when he received it. He thinks things will improve.

He had bought NKE as a turnaround story, which didn't really play out so he exited. Both are retail turnarounds with very strong brands. Logistically, it's very hard to turn around a brand and rejig the supply chain. These turnarounds take longer, with significantly more risk. (Compare that to a TD, which just had to cope with the one-time charge of a financial penalty.)

For NKE, with growing anti-American sentiment it could be hard to turn things around. LULU could, sometime, be a takeout target by private equity or another retailer. But that's not a reason to buy, especially when earnings and cashflow are still declining.

The principle of buying stocks whose products you use makes a great deal of sense. Eventually these things will turn around. But a stock that's been in decline for half a decade usually takes a bit of time to bounce back, and would probably need to build a bit of a base. (Whereas short, sharp declines can have short, sharp rebounds.)

Insider buying is a good sign. Likes US brands. Notwithstanding sentiment toward the US at this time, there's still an interest in the US as more investors are able to invest (such as Korea).

He isn't ready to buy it yet, because these retail stocks can be volatile. He wants to see an uptrend first. Retail turnarounds can work, but take time and can be difficult.