iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

This trades long bonds, so yes this approach works. In a risk-off market, duration as an asset class will do very well. He expects economic weakness, but doesn't know when. This pays nearly a 5% dividend. TLT may not be the best one though, because there may be a double-taxation issue (US and Canada).

If you want growth from your bond portfolio. But these don't have great tax treatment. Depends on what kind of investor you are.

(Note the short timeframe.)  He's not bearish on the market, just wary, so he's being defensive. The US market has more risk on the equity side than normal. His target remains around $90, still an OK place to make a couple of bucks. See his Top Picks.

On every dip to the $85-86 range, he's been maximizing his duration exposure into the recent weakness. He's overweight right now.

There's a narrative developing where Trump wants to issue less coupon debt and more bills to finance his big, beautiful bill. That manipulation of the yield curve could spark a very strong rally in TLT. If you think the economy's headed for a hard landing, TLT should see a good rally. Thinks it can get back to $95-100. Because of the monumental supply, not sure we can get higher than that.

See his comments in the Educational Segment.

(Note the short timeframe.)  He wanted to trade the trading range. He never uses physical stop losses, as you can get whipped out. It broke down from $85, so then he counts a minimum of 3 days -- yesterday, today, and he'll see what happens tomorrow. If it stays down, on Tuesday (US markets closed Monday) he'll sell the position.

Some trades don't work out. The best traders lose money on trades, but it's how much you lose that's important. You take a bit of a haircut and you move on. Rather than hanging on and hoping, while you watch it go down and down.

The yield has been flat in the last two years though shares have been volatile with the bond market. The bond market is broken long term as a buy-and-hold; you have to be an active bond manager given inflation's impact.

US long-dated treasuries. Very good compliment to your growth stock portfolio. During crises, bonds spike because it becomes more about return of capital rather than return on capital. Long duration means it's much more volatile; for example, in 2022-2023 there was a peak to trough loss of about 40%. See his Top Picks.

ZFL is Canadian long bonds. TLT is made up of Treasury long bonds. Both great vehicles in the context of trading and looking out for a recession. We're in a trading range for interest rates in general for the next few years. Bound on one end by colossal amounts of government debt, and on the other side inflation is driving rates higher as well. And all with the prospect of a slower global economy.

If you think there's going to be a harder economic landing, federal bonds will outperform provincial bonds as a rule of thumb. But you'll get a bit more yield in a provincial bond in the long run. 

Most recently he's been adding duration and maxing out long-bond exposure. After the markets rally a bit, he's trimming that back. He wouldn't say buy and hold. If you were to see the US 10-year get back to 4.75%, and the US long bond get back to 5%, those are great opportunities for longer-term trades.

He doesn't like the stock market, so he's looking for alternatives. This is one. Likes that there's the possibility of rates coming down in the US. His downside sell level is ~$86. First target is $95, second target is $100. Not correlated to stocks, so it will march to its own drumbeat (inflation, USD, and interest rate policy). Small dividend.

Must look at total return. Those that focus on the yield and don't understand the return are doomed to risk. Just hold TLT or ZTL -- US bonds at the long end of the treasury curve -- and don't go chasing yield.