Latest Top Picks

Stock Opinions by Cole Smead

TOP PICK
MEG Energy Corp

Heavy oil company with very long reserve life index. Likes strategy of management. Producing very high cash flows. No cash taxes. Worried about acquisition target, but would require a premium to share price. Strong CEO with excellent track record. 

oil / gas
TOP PICK

Skilled management team. Share price per following barrel is extremely attractive. Tight liquidity, but excellent for retail investors. 

Energy
TOP PICK
Cenovus Energy

Treated poorly in the market, but company has excellent management team. High quality assets. Ability to buy assets in the market. Quality of upstream and downstream assets good. 

oil / gas
COMMENT

Believes S&P 500 at risk of under performing in the next few quarters. Equities as a % of household financial assets is at a very high level. This metric indicates lower periods ahead for financial markets. Valuations overall - are very high right now. Canada presenting investment opportunities because assets are under valued (energy & lumber). Believes commodities will do very well going forward. Negative correlation between common stocks and commodities is negative - presenting opportunity to buy commodities. 

Unknown
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Tourmaline Oil Corp

Big fan of ownership/leadership of company (Mike Rose). Concern is that company is not under valued compared to peers in sector. Concern is that natural gas is over supplied. Overall a high quality company. Very strong marketing team also helps (strong pricing for natural gas). 

oil / gas
HOLD
Cameco Corporation

Does not own shares in Uranium. Unsure on future of nuclear demand. Stigma is that nuclear energy is risky. Would prefer investing in oil/gas stocks. 

integrated mines
HOLD
Baytex Energy Corp

Not being rewarded for M&A activity. Management promises of re-rating on stocks is not trusted by the markets. Believes company will gain higher valuation if focuses on prudent capital allocation (share buybacks etc.) Would advise investors to ignore over reactions of market (both negatively and positively). 

oil / gas
PARTIAL BUY

Overall - energy stocks attractive. M&A not being favored by the markets. Advise investors to wait 3-4 years before proving out recent acquisitions. Company cheap on an objective stance. Does not own shares. 

oil / gas
DON'T BUY
Chevron Texaco

Recent M&A not good for investors. Does not own shares in company. Disappointment on capital allocation in company. Would look elsewhere for energy sector investors. 

integrated oils
HOLD
Whitecap Resources

Not positive on recent moves by company - paying down too much debt. Would rather the company had reinvested cash into earnings growth rather than debt reduction. Also not a fan of dividends due to withholding tax. Would rather cash used on buybacks or earnings growth. Will continue to own shares. 

Oil and Gas (Integrated Oils)
HOLD

Likes recent spin-out of assets with Cenovus Energy. Would recommend holding stock. 

oil / gas
HOLD
Arc Resources Ltd

Larger company with excellent assets and cap table. Higher capitalization allows for better valuation. Does not own shares. Better options for investors in sector. 

oil / gas
HOLD

Very well run company with excellent assets. Attractively priced at 10x cash flow per share. 

oil / gas
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