They just announced layoffs of 12,000 Shares are rallying on layoffs news. Google is saying that their stock should be lower, because such layoffs does a lot to their culture and morale and is counter-productive to the company growing. It's upside-down how the market is reacting these days. So, he's negative in his overall market outlook.
Was upgraded today. He regrets not owning it. Great managers. Owning a biotech ETF like XBI is fine for risk management. Healthcare is recession-resistant and he loves it.
He's shorting industrials which performed well in 2022, but not this year. Industrials are the most levered to the economic cycle, so industrials (at best) are at slight discount to the market.
Today's better than expected employment numbers are pressuring markets. He remains realistic, bearish. Given Powell's remarks this week, no, that isn't the end of the Fed's tightening. Bulls are stupidly insane. Forget using last year's valuation on a stock as a benchmark for this year's valuation.
Meta is a different company from Facebook. They changed their name--what more proof do you need? Sure, they generate free cash flow, but that goes into one pocket and they spend it out of the other. Meta is changing what they started as, because that business is stagnating.
Typically, the market will respond to strong or weak Black Friday numbers. These days, bad economic news means good news, because bad news means the Fed will slow its rate hikes. Yes, seasonality says that markets will move higher. We're in a grace period between the time the Fed raises perhaps 50 basis points in mid-December and the time when we see Fed actions (of this year) have an impact. Yeah, there could be a year-end rally, but then we hit reality after that when earnings come down meaningfully and valuations get too high. He's fairly invested now, but doesn't expect to make a ton of money between now and the end of the year.
He bought it recently (last month). He likes that they're focused on automating manufacturing going forward. They have a great CEO. He held his nose to buy it, because it was not cheap, but they are in the right spot.
He expects capex spending by companies now to slow down. After all, in few recessions do industrials do well. Investors have gone out of tech and moved into industrials, another liquid space. He doesn't see industrials enduring a sustainable cycle during a declining economy.
He got back into it when its numbers began to compare favourably to Target's. It's cheap under 10x earnings, has great managers and apart from one quarter they have executed very well. Compare to Target which missed three straight quarters, but selling at 28x. In retail, they offer the best product pricing at various prices during the holiday season. He's very selective in retail.