Founder and managing partner at Short Hills Capital Partners
Member since: Sep '21 · 249 Opinions
Happy that shares are falling today (14%) and wants it to fall another 10% before he buys it back at levels where he previously sold.
It's a microcosm of corporate America: you fall down but what matters is how to rise up. The CEO has confronted his mistakes and divorced unprofitable businesses. When rates decline later this year, capital markets and M&A deals will open up and GS will benefit; they are well-positioned.
They need to change management to restore investor confidence.
He thinks about it whenever he passes their stores which are always crowded. Will continue to grow, but the high PE stops him from buying it, despite its high margins.
A way to play the improving commodities space, with lower risk.
He recently took some profits after shares popped 50% since Q4 which is an unusual move; this became too big a position.
A lot of people want to get into this but aren't yet. He doesn't know what the floor of this is. He owns little of it, buying it on a dip last year. Owns more of Taiwan Semi who supplies NVDA.
The future is bright for this, but not cheap now. Trades at 46x forward PE. They're sold out of product this year, maybe 2025 too.
He added shares, because this is facing maximum negativity, but ad revenues will pick up because it's an election year. They're one of the two winners in AI now (as well as MSFT) and selling a a discount to the market.
His only speculative holding. Fidelity, Blackrock and other funds companies are rushing to market their crypto instruments, so he's still buying. Would not sell if it slid 15%, but would hold.
Sold it because he doesn't want the commodity exposure and is afraid about the economy and uncertain about China. Wasn't a big position either.
He added more because the company is coming close to a resolution and their internal investigation won't change their earnings guidance for this year.
They're the winner in streaming: profitable, have pricing power, adding content and the others are busy trying to catch up. He added on a pullback a few months ago but shares are not cheap now.
Peaking today, so he took some profits. It's reliable with predictable cash flow (assuming they have it). There's some exuberance in the wider market. It remains a core position. This and MSFT each make up 15% of his portfolio.
It remains the only game in town, but the downside lately reflects the wider market. People are pausing until they hear from the Fed on March 20. There are always buyers who get in at the top, but are also the first to exit. That's what we're seeing here, in MSFT and Meta. After huge gains, take some profits. It's a good consolidation period influenced by this week's hot inflation numbers. Valuations are inflation, so don't put more money in the market now.