Jim Lebenthal

September is living up to its reputation as a volatile month for markets. But when volatility dies down, expect more M&A in the market. Also, watch for the UAW strike that could happen this week and will benefit no one in the economy. Its impact will be that deep.

The Apple news of striking a chip deal with Qualcomm surprises him in a good way. The three-year deal is a long time. The stock is up today and it's been very disappointing. Maybe both companies are learning to live with each other after a long history of lawsuits. Qualcomm remains a cheap company focused on IP needed for mobile telephony, an industry that has been terrible for 1.5 years (and he's waiting for it to bottom). China is key to their business, but China is having economic trouble these days. Maybe all the bad news is priced into this, but watch your back with this stock.

They need the car business to be a tech company, and they are facing a lot of competition now in EVs, much different from 10 years ago.

He expects the Disney-Hulu deal to wrap by the end of this year. Who cares about the cost of this Charter deal? The industry is leaving linear TV and heading firmly into streaming. Disney's CEO is no dummy; he knows where the industry is going.

A high-quality biopharma with a strong cystic fibrosis drug. Are trying to get into other franchises like diabetes treatments. Will do well long-run. Trades at 23x with 11% earnings growth, so you can take some profits now. Had a good run, so take some money off the table.

The unemployment rate rose today, largely because participation increased. Good news in terms of the Fed's rate hikes, but you also don't want this trend to continue. The market is focusing on 2024 earnings. We are set up for a huge Q4 rally after September seasonality. He's position for the market to rip after that. When a market has rallied like this has this year, it crescendos positively in Q4--people chase performance, Many felt when this year started that there will be a recession, and that hasn't happened. He likes the market broadening, though tech won't collapsed. 

Annualized returns over 3 years is -6%, or -18%/3 years. They've grown revenue 22% annually, though. Good to buy now.

He's considering this, though consumer sentiment will likely falter in September, so he's not rushing into retail. He's light in retail. Prefers this to Lulu, because Nike is the best in business. Will buy 10% lower at a lower PE.

Many felt that the cycle was over and prices would collapse, but he feels this is a little downturn. Demand will bounce back because of infrastructure spending to come next and demand for EVs and batteries. This is where the cycle is heading for base metals.

He expects natural gas prices to continue to rise if we see a cold winter.

He bought a lot last year and expects it to rise. China is expected to pick up deliveries of the 737 Max, which will generate a lot of free cash flow.

Now at a forward PE of 27x, but would buy at 24x. A quality company.

He trimmed, because it's not going anywhere near term. He is building cash for the current market pullback. He will add to Nvidia, Microsoft and Apple on more weakness.

Now at a new post-Covid low. Frustrating. There's no new catalyst, but a malaise. ESPN is the real albatross, though there have been talks with other parties like Amazon to partner.

He's been raising cash, because by the second half of September, this weakness, particularly in big tech, will be done. History says that in strong years like this, there will be a good Christmas rally.