Jim Lebenthal

It comes down to margins and sales growth will slow. CRM probably needs hardball action by the new activist investor. Not sure how the CEO and activist will work together.

The worst stock today because of a downgrade from buy to neutral due to slowing Azure growth He's owns only a little of it. Megatech will enjoy some good days this year, but tech will not be a theme. MSFT will do fine overall. But it's pricey at 24x.

Doesn't expect a recession, but if there is, financials are a good space to be in. Balance sheets are healthy. Will benefit from a lift in economic activity through loans.

He's been adding to it over the last several months. Yes, BA is up a lot in recent months, but you can still start adding or starting a position. China could order planes as it warms relations with the US. Meanwhile, engine supplies are picking up after struggling.

Cleveland was unfairly beaten up last year, but two weeks ago they will rework their orders with auto OEMs (50% of their business) will get higher prices while production costs will decline this year. A cheap stock that generates cash.

Paramount is popping over 7% today, though down 45% in the past year. Pays a 5.6% dividend yield and trades at book value. It's the fastest-growing streaming business. In 2024, it will no longer suffer a cash flow drag as it does now.

Good delivery numbers today. Trades at only 6x PE and below book value. EV roll-outs look promising. Pays 1.1% dividend.

Today's better than expected employment numbers are pressuring markets. If this were July, stocks would keep falling and close 3-4% down, but is isn't happening. Why? Seasonality but more importantly fundamentals. This means, there's a growing chance of a soft landing. Creating more jobs last month is an indicator of that, of a healthy economy. Next Friday, we'll get the inflation figure for November. Note that the Cleveland Fed has been lowering its inflation forecasts.

Yes, it's a boring tech stock, undramatic, but it generates cash, buys back shares and pays a good dividend. It's a good business with low volatility. It's steady.

Stay in REITs, because interest rates have peaked. Sell REITs when rates rise. He likes CPT, whichi s based in the sunbelt, which is attracting people from the higher-taxed coastal states. A great business that's growing nicely.

Conventional wisdom says to avoid REITs and bond proxies when interest rates rise. But many REITs are solid businesses trading at reasonable valuations and paying good dividends. Untrue: commercial real estate is bad but avoid strip malls. Those REITs are down so much that there'll be upside in 2023.

Look at the recovery in Las Vegas. Okay, maybe a recession is coming, but the Wynn CEO is ready for one (though doesn't see one on the horizon). Last month, a big private investor took a big stake in Wynn (a good sign). Macro tailwinds: China will reopen.

United Airlines just announced it will buy some of their planes. The deadline of the 737-7 may be extended for certification. Air India will buy planes too. A lot more to come.

Maybe by Feb. 1, 2023, the Fed is done with rate hikes. If so (a big if) earnings may stink in the first half of 203, but the second half will look pretty good. The Atlanta Fed pegs this quarter's GDP at 4%--this is a strong economy. A recession next year is possible, but not guaranteed. Stocks have been hammered on the prospect of a recession, which does not have to happen.