
Partner at Cerity Partners
Member since: Oct '21 · 458 Opinions
They just reported: 30% topline revenue growth, free cash flow a lot better than expected, though still negative because they're investing in the business. They did not announce new capex plans. Their current default swaps are starting to make a difference, from 215 bps a few weeks ago, and now at 181 bps. Lots to like, but shares are down because interest rates are up in recent days. You can buy on weakness now. Their capex spend will remain an overhang, though.
The market has been selling this, despite Adobe performing well: share buybacks to shrink the share count by 10% the past year, good earnings, growing net income and free cash flow. Net income has grown 15% annually the past 3 years. This proves that AI won't wipe out their business. This stock is undervalued. Shares are down today because the market (and he) wanted Adobe to hire an outsider as the new CEO. But this doesn't mean it's a sell.
Very frustrating. He almost sold it recently. It has recovered 8% after earnings. Is sticking with it, because Disney has a lot of good businesses, including the theme parks and even streaming, but how fast can it grow? Eighteen months ago streaming turned a profit, and margins are good. Be patient and it pays off. The PE has fallen from 22x to 15x over five years, and it pays a 2-ish% dividend that keeps rising.
It's had a slight rally of 10% after reporting in early August. Trades at 14x forward PE, for a well-known brand and has consumer appeal. He will stick with it.