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Jim Lebenthal
Partner at Cerity Partners
Member since: Oct '21 · 117 Opinions
Rating Card
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| 0 | 0 0.00% | 0 0.00% | 0 0.00% | 0 0.00% | 0 0.00% |
Stock Opinions by Jim Lebenthal
COMMENT
Today's better than expected employment numbers are pressuring markets. If this were July, stocks would keep falling and close 3-4% down, but is isn't happening. Why? Seasonality but more importantly fundamentals. This means, there's a growing chance of a soft landing. Creating more jobs last month is an indicator of that, of a healthy economy. Next Friday, we'll get the inflation figure for November. Note that the Cleveland Fed has been lowering its inflation forecasts.
Unknown
$0.000
Unknown
BUY
Yes, it's a boring tech stock, undramatic, but it generates cash, buys back shares and pays a good dividend. It's a good business with low volatility. It's steady.
electrical / electronic
BUY
Stay in REITs, because interest rates have peaked. Sell REITs when rates rise. He likes CPT, whichi s based in the sunbelt, which is attracting people from the higher-taxed coastal states. A great business that's growing nicely.
Financial Services
BUY
Conventional wisdom says to avoid REITs and bond proxies when interest rates rise. But many REITs are solid businesses trading at reasonable valuations and paying good dividends. Untrue: commercial real estate is bad but avoid strip malls. Those REITs are down so much that there'll be upside in 2023.
REAL ESTATE
BUY
Look at the recovery in Las Vegas. Okay, maybe a recession is coming, but the Wynn CEO is ready for one (though doesn't see one on the horizon). Last month, a big private investor took a big stake in Wynn (a good sign). Macro tailwinds: China will reopen.
entertainment services
BUY
United Airlines just announced it will buy some of their planes. The deadline of the 737-7 may be extended for certification. Air India will buy planes too. A lot more to come.
Transportation
COMMENT
Maybe by Feb. 1, 2023, the Fed is done with rate hikes. If so (a big if) earnings may stink in the first half of 203, but the second half will look pretty good. The Atlanta Fed pegs this quarter's GDP at 4%--this is a strong economy. A recession next year is possible, but not guaranteed. Stocks have been hammered on the prospect of a recession, which does not have to happen.
Unknown
WAIT
He sees declining revenues and negative sentiment. However, Intel is not a bad stock. But he's waiting for the turn.
electrical / electronic
BUY
Was upgraded today. The legacy gas-powered car business is going gangbusters and EVs and self-driving cars are gravy. If there's no recession, then GM is trading at 90% book value and 6x earnings.
Automotive
STRONG BUY
As cyclical as you can get. They bend metal into railroad cars. Their earnings yesterday blew it out of the water. Rails are buying new cars, leasing and refurbishing new cars.
transportation equip & components
COMMENT
What Tim Cook did was extraordinary--changing the OS model to make it hard to track ads for Facebook. Today, Apple is punching above its weight today.
electrical / electronic
BUY
He's holding for the long-term. There's a supply-demand imbalance that will last 2 years and will favour energy and Exxon. The green transition will take the pressure off that demand, and the world needs that. Then, what will happen if China removes its strict-Covid policy? Demand will spike.
integrated oils
BUY
It was upgraded today. What an earnings report, and they increased full-year guidance. Their HIV franchise continues to drive the top and bottom lines. Long-term, they continue to expand in oncolocy treatments--their pipeline looks fine.
biotechnology / pharmaceutical
BUY
BMY and AbbVie The line is blurred between biotech and pharma. He likes both spaces and both stocks. Aging demographics means more and more drugs. Both are have solid valuations. They pay income but also offer capital appreciation.
biotechnology / pharmaceutical
BUY
BMY and AbbVie The line is blurred between biotech and pharma. He likes both spaces and both stocks. Aging demographics means more and more drugs. Both are have solid valuations. They pay income but also offer capital appreciation.
biotechnology / pharmaceutical
