Partner at Cerity Partners
Member since: Oct '21 · 315 Opinions
When the company announce Apple Intelligence, shares surged, based on the expectation of a super-cycle upgrade. But this is not happening. Also, shares are vulnerable at a low-30s PE. But automatically, passive flows go into Apple.
He's the most interested in this name among the megatechs. Yes, regulatory issues and fines, but the real question is whether Perplexity is eating into GOOG's search business. If no, then GOOG is very cheap.
He bought it because he wanted defence exposure. Unfortunately, the world will demand defense (Middle East, Ukraine, BRIC). LMT's order book for fighter jets is strong. He bought a small position, because the valuation is high--he bit the bullet. He will add on weakness. Their last report showed signs of life in the margins, now that supply chain problems are gone.
He sold it because of problems with one of their engines. That was a mistake. They solved that issue and demand for defence remains. A good company.
Some brands like ON and Skechers are hot, and some like Nike are not. You must pick your spots in this sector.
Management has replaced key drug, Humira, and made key acquisitions. Are doing all the right things.
Is hitting a new high today because oil prices are high. XOM's earnings are down this year, because those prices are down. He can't say that oil prices are definitely rising, but OPEC sees demand rising through 2050. There's a lot of room for prices to go higher.
They report Tuesday. Lots of moving parts now, but overall demand remains high. The problem in recent months is overcapacity in the airline industry.
Each time they fly, they lose money. He hopes they come out of the market to reduce capacity and increase overall airline demand for the other airlines.
Because of today's strong jobs report, credit delinquencies won't be as bad as feared, which benefits Citi.
Small caps will catch up to the rest of this rally. Given the positive economic news we've been getting all week, small-cap topline revenues should stay intact as borrowing costs decline.
He's counting on profits to be a lot higher than expected next year.
Credit them for being a company which led to the schizophrenia drug, which the FDA just approved. BMY has been unloved, selling before 8x PE at a 4% dividend. Puzzling, but shares will certainly rise. He sold it last year and may re-enter it.
Consider seasonality: there will be money managers playing catch up by throwing money at names like this. So, NVDA is likely to go higher along with the market.