Jim Lebenthal

Very frustrating. He almost sold it recently. It has recovered 8% after earnings. Is sticking with it, because Disney has a lot of good businesses, including the theme parks and even streaming, but how fast can it grow? Eighteen months ago streaming turned a profit, and margins are good. Be patient and it pays off. The PE has fallen from 22x to 15x over five years, and it pays a 2-ish% dividend that keeps rising.

This has been a little frustrating, but is coming out of the penalty box now after buying a Canadian steel company right before tariffs. We've seen a few positive quarters.

Has owned this since 2015 and has outperformed the market at a low beta. It was priced for perfection, so shares fell after they reported. But their topline is growing, the valuation is terrific and they're in the AI space.

He bought it 2 months ago and is flat, but likes it here now. The weakness after earnings was due to levered ETFs and margined accounts starting in Korea. But that's behind us. He thinks AI spending will continue. 

He sold half his position. It was frothy at $330 going into earnings. There's margin pressure from the rising costs of chips going into their new iPhones. While others were saying that Apple finally was going AI, he's still waiting. If you have an oversize position, takes some profits. But if your average cost of $15 and you're long term, then you'll pay a mighty big capital gains tax. Doubts this will fall back to $200. The fundamentals have not changed. Overall, the chart moves up with ups and downs. If this falls to $270, he's back in. Now, it's too expensive at 33x PE. He'd add at 25x PE though doubts we'll reach that.

He recently bought two tranches, averaging $1,000, though today at $877. He thinks the cycle will be elongated, so buying MU at 6x forward PE with earnings growing through the roof. He doesn't believe demand for their chips will plummet. The hyperscalers' reports of late show only growth.

Strip out the stock holdings from its market cap and look at only the operating companies, it trades at 13x forward PE. Those companies include Burlington Northern, Berkshire Energy, Precision Cast Parts, etc. That's 13x PE for the American economy plus the stock portfolio on top of that. Also, they bought Alphabet on the secondary, and are buying back their own shares. He finds this all compelling.

In the last 5 years, annualized return was 27% vs. the S&P's 13%.

Is a triple threat with web services, is designing its own chips and has Gemini. This and Amazon are the leaders.

AWS grew 37%, a touch below MSFT's Azure 43%, but still amazing numbers that will continue. Their data centres will pay off in only 3 years, also good.

They report Wednesday. The Gamestop offer has some potential. The strong consumer is gravitating more to ebay. PE is good. Share buybacks are happening. The collectibles category is new and could pay off.

He sold half his holding yesterday before earnings, because this was priced for perfection after a tremendous run. Still trading around a rich 35x PE. Also, they suffer price increase on chips from Qualcomm. Apple still makes up 6.5% of his portfolio.