Bruce Campbell (2)
President & Portfolio Manager at Stone Castle Investment Management Inc.
Member since: Oct '13 · 1911 Opinions
Rating Card
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| 2.2 | 188 27.01% | 87 12.50% | 53 7.61% | 107 15.37% | 261 37.50% | ||
| 1 Month | 2.86 | 19 11.73% | 46 28.40% | 26 16.05% | 46 28.40% | 25 15.43% | |
| 6 Months | 1.97 | 47 28.83% | 18 11.04% | 15 9.20% | 23 14.11% | 60 36.81% | |
| 12 Months | 1.94 | 53 33.54% | 9 5.70% | 6 3.80% | 16 10.13% | 74 46.84% | |
| 2 Years | 1.73 | 39 28.06% | 9 6.47% | 4 2.88% | 15 10.79% | 72 51.80% | |
| 5 Years | 2.51 | 30 40.54% | 5 6.76% | 2 2.70% | 7 9.46% | 30 40.54% |
Stock Opinions by Bruce Campbell (2)
Off that April bottom, we've seen probably one of the most dramatic V-bottoms in history. That's telling you that things are starting to get a bit extended. If you look at the CNN Fear & Greed Index, or the NAAIM exposure of almost 100% invested right now, you can see that short-term things are extended.
Markets made a really big push to highs. Now zoom out and look at the longer term, some things have happened that indicate we're setting up for higher markets long term. But there could be chop in the short term. Depends on what type of investor you are. If you're more for the short term, you might want to look at raising some cash. If you're in it for the long haul, you'll probably just sit here and ride out the volatility.
There's so much going on right now, and we've seen a year like no other as far as geopolitical news and tariff talks. Now the focus will probably turn to earnings for Q2. After Q1, a lot of companies didn't provide much for guidance because of the tariffs. So now we'll want to see what the guidance is going forward, and that will let us get a better sense of valuation on the market.
Looking at the market from a historical, rearview perspective, it certainly is expensive right now.
Management's done fantastic job on execution. Really accelerated growth. Uses AI both to generate leads and to analyze them for loans, which helps reduce bad loans. Growing organically, plus made UK acquisition. US is their big market. High insider ownership. Starting to see market breadth broadening for small caps in Canada.
Fair bit of volatility around crypto and these companies. Focus lately has been on using crypto as a treasury asset. Some of the miners have started to move in the last few weeks, probably due to crypto having a big move off the bottom. If miners can be efficient, their numbers are probably going to ramp up over the next couple of quarters.
One factor is the timeframe for how long you want to stay invested. You need realistic timeframes, because we saw this past March what volatility can do to markets. He tends to focus on a lot of small- to mid-cap companies, and they can be really volatile both on their stock and on their underlying business.
Know yourself and how you react to making money and to losing money. When a stock's losing money do you follow it down, buy more, or stop yourself out? Need to know that ahead of time so that you don't get emotional in the moment. When you're making money, will you hold and make a lot of money for the duration or will you harvest your gains along the way and reinvest somewhere else?
It's important to know ahead of time what you're going to do, especially with the small- and mid-caps.
When you talk to people ahead of time, most say either they can handle volatility or they don't want any volatility. If an investor doesn't want any volatility, then really the market's not the right place for them.
If they say they can handle volatility, it comes down to how much they can handle and over what timeframe. If you look back to what happened in March/April, and now we're right back to where we were, know that it doesn't always work out that way. There have been times in history when a downturn can last for a much longer period. Think back to 2008 or 2001-2003. So investors have to understand how much downside volatility they can stomach.
If you can handle a 15-20% drop, but only for a year, then perhaps the market isn't the place for all of your money. If you can stick it out for 3-4 years, then the market is OK for you.
Also, if you have a steady cashflow and you're adding money to your portfolio all the time, you want cheaper prices. That will really help you in the long run over time.
Surprising how much it's come back, due in large part to sentiment having been so negative. Penalties will dampen growth. Still, numbers for both US and Canadian financials are starting to accelerate. Canadian banks over-provisioned for loan losses; if they don't have to tap into those reserves, should see really strong numbers going forward. On technicals, all the Canadian banks are moving up the ranks.
Numbers for Canadian financials are starting to accelerate. Canadian banks over-provisioned for loan losses; if they don't have to tap into those reserves, should see really strong numbers going forward. On technicals, all the Canadian banks are moving up the ranks. Over 10-20 years, there hasn't been a better investment. They all pay a dividend, though not fantastic growth every single year, a bit lumpy.
They've all done well, and TD has caught up to the others, so it wouldn't make sense to switch out of one for another at this point.
The best sleep at night you can have.
Ask yourself what the opportunity is. We've seen a real change in the oilfields over the last decade. Instead of growth at all costs, companies have decided to get balance sheets in order and pay back capital to shareholders. So this name has fewer opportunities. That said, LNG Canada will be a continued source of new production.
Made an acquisition, and stock popped, so the market likes it.
