
President & Portfolio Manager at Stone Castle Investment Management Inc.
Member since: Oct '13 · 2046 Opinions
There's history that always rhymes, and there's human behaviour that always repeats. That's what's happening here.
Investors were concerned about the conflict and what that meant. They then shrugged that off and started to look at what individual companies were doing. So far, earnings that have been released have been very strong. As a result, confidence just comes right back into the market.
Fairly broadly. Technology is one of his largest exposures. He has industrials and some energy, as well as some special picks to round out the portfolio.
Brought metals down a fair bit. January was dominated by metals names. As earnings have increased in other areas, metals fell back in his rankings. For example, January had 17-18% precious metals exposure; he's now down to ~7%.
His firm runs a top-down process, which leads to picks in offense, neutral, or defense. Certain indicators are applied to the choices. They went to neutral back in March, and then moved to offense in April.
He watches the indicators closely. When they change, he adjusts the asset allocation by reducing equity exposure and increasing his cash position.
Mortgage renewals are happening, but not a huge increase in defaults. Canada's being resource-dominant helps bank earnings, and this attracts foreign investors. Cloud of money laundering behind it. Could move higher if commodity trend continues.
That said, the move has been huge. Don't be surprised if stock stays flat a bit after next report, until next uptrend in earnings.
A major asset is in Nicaragua and, rightly or wrongly, it's perceived to have some political risk. Not a lot of trading volume, so institutions getting in or out tends to push the price around.
As it starts to build assets in other geographic regions, that diversification should take the stock higher. But who knows when that will be. You have to be comfortable holding it for the dividend. He used to own for the dividend, but sold. Yield is ~6.4%.