Christine Poole

Interest rates will go up, perhaps by 75 points. Positive is that employment is strong in the US and Canada. The indices are trading at historic averages after entering a bear market (in the US). She's looking for earnings revisions going down. The US consumer is still spending--so far so good. During Covid, consumers accumulated savings. Now, we're seeing people travel, which is positive. This could allow the US Fed engineer a soft landing.

They reported a few weeks ago and noted a shift in spending from household goods into travel/social. WMT will have to discount some of these goods. The poorer consumer is feeling the impact from higher food and energy prices. Retail stocks have pulled back recently. She's not inclined to buy WMT and prefers Dollar Tree which enjoys more consumer demand.

(A Top Pick Jun 16/21, Down 2%) Apple remains a core tech holding, though she trimmed shares around $178 earlier this year. She is adding more shares now in this pullback. Apple has a customer base of 1 billion phone users and offers many services to them like music, fitness and TV. These offers high margins and recurring revenues. Apple is innovative and will continue to add new services and products.

(A Top Pick Jun 16/21, Up 7%) A core bank holding. Banks have pulled back recently but have held up well vs. the whole market and vs. US banks. The sector is well-capitalized. TD has announced it will buy First Horizon to expand TD's southern US presence and is a good use of their capital. TD has been increasing their dividend, now around 4%. TD is a long-term hold and this pullback is a buying opportunity.

(A Top Pick Jun 16/21, Down 4%) Still owns it. Now below $300 you can add/buy. Home prices are rising over time and the home inventory is getting older. US homes are getting older, so need renovation. Also, HD has focused on their pro customer to easily buy online. Pros sales were strong last quarter. HD bought a maintenance and repair company to do maintenance for hotels and the commercial market--a new growth area.

It's had a tough year so far. During Covid, their theme parks and cruise ships were closed, but they launched Disney+ which did well. Going forward, an overhang is that the parks in China remain closed due to Covid. Disney is under-earning their earnings power. Their content should get released more regularly. This morning, Disney bid for the broadcast and digital rights to cricket league in India, a franchise that has grown tremendously, but she feels the price is too high. She remains confident in Disney, that the Chinese parks will reopen, Disney+ will improve and so should theatrical box office tallies.

Shares will be driven by oil's price. She prefers the pipeline stocks because they pay good dividends and are less volatile than oil stocks. If you're bullish oil, you can buy CPG.

A core holding in the alternative asset management. Shares are down because the market is, but would buy now. Alternative assets enjoy secular growth, because sovereign wealth funds and pension funds are buying these, because bond rates have been low for a long time. So, a headwind could be rising interest rates. That said, the US 10-year rate is low historically even though it's been rising. Cash flows are protected from inflation, because they are hard assets in infrastructure and renewables. BAM has been successful in fundraising, so have a lot of capital. Volatile markets like now open an opportunity for BAM to buy cheap assets and sell mature ones at higher prices.

Tracks the S&P and is hedged. She doesn't buy ETFs. But an ETF makes sense for some investors who lack the time and expertise. The wider risk is if the market keeps declining and enters a recession. She suggests buying a portion at a time and watching the market.

Tracks the S&P and is hedged. She doesn't buy ETFs. But an ETF makes sense for some investors who lack the time and expertise. The wider risk is if the market keeps declining and enters a recession. She suggests buying a portion at a time and watching the market.

Shares have come off a lot. One reason is the valuation. The retail side does not make that much money. Their cloud business subsidizes retail and that wasn't enough in their last quarter. Amazon admits they expanded too quickly in areas like transportation during Covid, but can't sustain that now. She also notes that some executives have left the company recently.

Shares did not drop, but they split shares yesterday 3-for-3. She likes BIP.UN and BAM'A. They hold hard assets like toll bridges and telecom towers, so generate stable cash flows which are impervious to inflation.

Recently pullback due to its valuation. Well-run in private equity like BAM'A. You can start picking away at this now.

Shares are down 30% from highs this year, but PE is now attractive. Trades at 17x forward PE after stripping out the cash; is in a net cash position. She has long owned this. GOOG dominates in online advertising. Reasonably priced now. They're showing good growth in search and cloud computer. Has a strong balance sheet. Would add now. She recommends the L class, because it has voting rights. (Analysts’ price target is $3235.50)

She favours defensive stocks in an economic slowdown. They dominate in the biscuits sales and picked up more customers during Covid. Shares pulled back after Target did. Trading at xxx forward earnings. Pays 2.4% dividend. Emering markets (Analysts’ price target is $72.57)