
Portfolio Manager at LDIC
Member since: Aug '16 · 311 Opinions
So far, so good. Earnings are coming in pretty strong. We're in the very early innings of Q3, especially for Canada.
We had a very strong Q2, beating by about 6% and with earnings growth a little over 8.5%. He expects this to follow through in Q3. The big tech giants are a little hit and miss; for example, META's down ~11% so far today.
To an extent. Whenever you have a lack of visibility in the market, it weights on markets and sentiment. Investors become fearful, and that can hurt markets.
He also thinks there's a bit of fatigue here. We've seen so much of this activity since Trump started all this noise. Sounds as though Trump and Carney were speaking at the APEC dinner, so things could be improving there. The news on China is good, as a long deferral is always good. He believes that Trump ultimately wants resolution on these issues.
It got ahead of itself, and now we're back to where we were only a couple of weeks ago. This is central banks buying. They're selling treasuries, looking for a place to park capital, and gold is one of those places. Gold is such a small market compared to how big the US Treasury market is. Hard to know when that demand's going to dry up, but not anytime soon.
Some tailwinds left in the price of gold. The companies themselves do extremely well in a range of $3-4k, as they're breakeven cost is ~$1500-1600. Margins are extremely wide at even $3500. Good place to be. He's about 6% weight right now (not market weight) in some strong production companies, a little bit of exploration, and a royalty company. Sustainable.
Likes it a lot. Needed to spend to upgrade refineries, so debt ramped up but has since been reduced to a reasonable level. Buying MEG, but shareholder meeting paused again today. We'll see how that goes, willing to stick it out.
Ultimately would be a good deal. Weighs on CVE in the short term, as it has to finance the merger and a portion of that would be in equity.
Huge supply of gas, so price has been depressed. Likes nat gas as a transition energy, and likes the mid-streamers like this one. Transportation, storage, blending, etc. Had gotten offside in marketing, but they have a handle on that now. He'd buy on this dip. Big yield over 5%.
Stretched valuation, trading over 3x book. Market's just not that interested in these large-cap, stable businesses. A lot of $$ has flowed away from safe havens and into growth and momentum. He hears that certain companies are trying to gain market share, so they're resetting their policy pricing (same dynamic that played out among the telcos).
He doesn't have any intelligence on what's weighing on the stock. Trump wants lower oil prices, so he hasn't owned any of the producers for a long time. Some great assets, room to grow through acquisition. He'd never buy on the basis of a potential takeover.
He's sticking with the midstream companies -- better cashflow profiles with more stable and consistent cashflow, reasonable valuations.