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Stock Opinions by Andrew Pink

COMMENT
Earnings season.

So far, so good. Earnings are coming in pretty strong. We're in the very early innings of Q3, especially for Canada.

We had a very strong Q2, beating by about 6% and with earnings growth a little over 8.5%. He expects this to follow through in Q3. The big tech giants are a little hit and miss; for example, META's down ~11% so far today.

COMMENT
Are Canada-US trade tensions weighing on investors?

To an extent. Whenever you have a lack of visibility in the market, it weights on markets and sentiment. Investors become fearful, and that can hurt markets.

He also thinks there's a bit of fatigue here. We've seen so much of this activity since Trump started all this noise. Sounds as though Trump and Carney were speaking at the APEC dinner, so things could be improving there. The news on China is good, as a long deferral is always good. He believes that Trump ultimately wants resolution on these issues.

COMMENT
Gold.

It got ahead of itself, and now we're back to where we were only a couple of weeks ago. This is central banks buying. They're selling treasuries, looking for a place to park capital, and gold is one of those places. Gold is such a small market compared to how big the US Treasury market is. Hard to know when that demand's going to dry up, but not anytime soon.

Some tailwinds left in the price of gold. The companies themselves do extremely well in a range of $3-4k, as they're breakeven cost is ~$1500-1600. Margins are extremely wide at even $3500. Good place to be. He's about 6% weight right now (not market weight) in some strong production companies, a little bit of exploration, and a royalty company. Sustainable.

HOLD

Likes it a lot. Needed to spend to upgrade refineries, so debt ramped up but has since been reduced to a reasonable level. Buying MEG, but shareholder meeting paused again today. We'll see how that goes, willing to stick it out.

Ultimately would be a good deal. Weighs on CVE in the short term, as it has to finance the merger and a portion of that would be in equity. 

BUY
Natural gas and nat gas liquids.

Huge supply of gas, so price has been depressed. Likes nat gas as a transition energy, and likes the mid-streamers like this one. Transportation, storage, blending, etc. Had gotten offside in marketing, but they have a handle on that now. He'd buy on this dip. Big yield over 5%.

HOLD

Owns this in a small way, and SLF in a bigger way. Likes the space. Valuation is 1.8x book, not cheap. Management assets should do well when markets are up. Good chance of putting up a very strong quarter. Can move higher, but note that you're buying momentum and not value.

WAIT

Software stocks in general have come off. His colleagues did a deep dive on this name and concluded that it's a little overvalued. May have a harder time in the AI environment. On a 5-year chart, can see lots of downside before it reaches some stability ~$2000. Watch the next couple of quarters.

DON'T BUY
Reason for pullback?

Stretched valuation, trading over 3x book. Market's just not that interested in these large-cap, stable businesses. A lot of $$ has flowed away from safe havens and into growth and momentum. He hears that certain companies are trying to gain market share, so they're resetting their policy pricing (same dynamic that played out among the telcos).

WATCH

Slowdown after Covid. Back on track of seasonal trend of increased leasing up to the end of summer and then moving out in spring. Leasing rates are a bit lower this year. Low-duration leases are very good for resetting to prevailing market rents. Unique business, and he's looking at it closely.

HOLD

Likes the story. Total addressable market is massive. Trades at a huge multiple of 100x PE. Volatile, and you have to be able to stand that. Not suitable as a significant part of your portfolio. Unique. Its mousetrap works better than many others. Growth trajectory very good.

SELL
Software for supply management.

Did well for a long time. He trimmed when it got above $160, more recently sold around $140. AI can do a lot of what they do, and that's a threat. All software companies are feeling the same pain. There's also a competing product out there that's free.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 30/25, Up 48%)

(Note the short timeframe.)  Nice relative outperformer to the TSX (which is up ~22% over this timeframe). Nuclear space is really heating up, and it's a big growth trajectory for them. Nice place to buy here.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 30/25, Up 14%)

(Note the short timeframe.)  Likes it long term. Trades more cheaply than CSH.UN.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 30/25, Up 40%)

(Note the short timeframe.)  More newsworthy lately because data centres are looking to set up shop in Alberta with its cheaper power. In his mind, only a matter of time before it partners with one of the hyperscalers.

DON'T BUY

He doesn't have any intelligence on what's weighing on the stock. Trump wants lower oil prices, so he hasn't owned any of the producers for a long time. Some great assets, room to grow through acquisition. He'd never buy on the basis of a potential takeover.

He's sticking with the midstream companies -- better cashflow profiles with more stable and consistent cashflow, reasonable valuations.

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