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Stock Opinions by Julien Nono-Womdim

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COMMENT

They are still bullish on US stocks and the continuation of the cyclical bull market. There are two drivers. One is the AI investment cycle where demand is outpacing supply. Data from second quarter earnings show strong demand for industrial building centres. Technology will be transformational to the economy. Also with little indication of rising inflation the expectation is that the feds will cut rates 25 to 50 basis points. The US economy is deteriorating somewhat. Globally we're in a rate cutting cycle.

Unspecified

He has invested in it in the past. AI demand for memory is accelerating so it is well positioned. Can be considered an oligarchy and should continue to do well.

BUY

A 2 to 3 year timeline is the sweet spot for a long term investor. It is generally easier to form a thesis over three years. Acceleration is remarkable and no case has been made for a monopoly. Google can compete on the AI front and there is not as much focus on the search component. The value of the sum of its parts is greater than people realize.

DON'T BUY

It does really well with metabolic syndrome chronic diseases, eg Diabetes and has leadership in this area.There have been disappointments in the earnings cycle so it is at a 52 week low. The market only rewards companies that have been executing and Novo hasn't. It could recover however so he is on the sidelines to wait and see.

BUY

They sounded reasonably positive in the recent quarter and he is positive on the space. Rate cuts should be supportive for net interest margins in the banking industry.

Unspecified

The supply chain and consumer demand is in flux but the valuation is very cheap and doesn't reflect the current and long term fundamentals. He does acknowledge the challenges.

Unspecified

It is a great company and the key benefit lies in the transition from cash to credit. They are adding more add-on services but it has under-performed the S&P 500 for the past few years. It is stable but not accelerating so there are probably better opportunities elsewhere.

BUY

It has a track record of discipline for capital allocation and has a good management team. It is an exceptional operator focusing on infrastructure projects around the world.

COMMENT

There were no past picks so he focused on health care in general and specifically. The space has been beaten down with a lot of unloved stocks. There is a hangover from the strong demand during Covid. The Trump administration is making changes on the regulatory front and meaningful reforms. It is a defensive space so there is better growth elsewhere in a bull market, so people move money out of it. 

UNH is affected by the sector. There is cost inflation on the medical device side so stability has gone down. The aging population is a tailwind but at a greater cost to the system.

Regarding Merk if you want to make a certain amount on drugs, a lot will disappear because of drugs coming off patent. He hopes they have more M&A deals or innovate internally. Innovation is positive for the industry. They will still have some valuable assets left when the regulatory picture clears.

DON'T BUY

Cannabis has had weak returns on capital and he has seen too much capital invested and destroyed. He doesn't see it as a space to invest in. Wants to see major consolidation and improvement in regulation.

Unspecified

It is well balanced between different sectors and good for the long term. His preference is KLA Tencore (KLAC) which is dominant in the space. It is up 29% over the year so you could step in now.

BUY

It is a leader with a dominant position and a good management team that knows what they are doing. It is always expensive and others have a cheaper valuation but this is a core holding.

BUY

They own it in the Canadian portfolio. There is a big push towards alternative assets and they generate fees on and grow the quality assets they manage. This includes de-carbonization, wind and solar. It also has partnerships with data centres. They have a pretty meaningful presence in any infrastructure project around the world.

BUY

It has had competition over the decade but has had a strong presence and leading edge. It is in an enviable position. Tariffs on semi-conductors would slow the US economy and US markets. It has no reason to turn negative.

COMMENT

It is a high quality company and he likes it. He wants to see more consistency and less cyclicality. The industry should do well over time.

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