Stock Opinions by David Driscoll - Stockchase Experts
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David Driscoll @

On Stockchase since : Oct 2000

President & CEO at Liberty International Investment Management Inc

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Stock Opinions by David Driscoll - Stockchase Experts

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

March 21, 2019

Market Outlook - He is still risk averse. Holding 20% times the equity allocation for accounts in cash. Even if there is no economic recession, there is some signs of an earnings recession. Corporations made a lot of acquisitions and carry a lot of debt. He sees the S&P 500 crossing 2,900 and then you will have momentum probably pushing it another 10%. His top is 3,700. There he would rise cash as we would be at the 2000 or 1929 highs on a relative valuation. Yesterday the 10-year yield came low enough to match the 2-year yield. That happens usually in Canada. We are there already in Canada. If a recession comes it usually lasts 18-24 months and the market could fall 20 to 40%. The banks were rising on the expectation that rates would continue to go higher. Banks are not the best place to be for now.
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Market Outlook - He is still risk averse. Holding 20% times the equity allocation for accounts in cash. Even if there is no economic recession, there is some signs of an earnings recession. Corporations made a lot of acquisitions and carry a lot of debt. He sees the S&P 500 crossing 2,900 and then you will have momentum probably pushing it another 10%. His top is 3,700. There he would rise cash as we would be at the 2000 or 1929 highs on a relative valuation. Yesterday the 10-year yield came low enough to match the 2-year yield. That happens usually in Canada. We are there already in Canada. If a recession comes it usually lasts 18-24 months and the market could fall 20 to 40%. The banks were rising on the expectation that rates would continue to go higher. Banks are not the best place to be for now.
Unknown
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David Driscoll

President , Liberty Internationa...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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WATCH
They completed their $30 billion divestment program that allowed them to pay down debt. They are moving towards LNG. They haven't been rising dividend lately. Caution on this. The yield is attractive but if not growing is a red flag.
integrated oils
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They completed their $30 billion divestment program that allowed them to pay down debt. They are moving towards LNG. They haven't been rising dividend lately. Caution on this. The yield is attractive but if not growing is a red flag.
integrated oils
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David Driscoll

President , Liberty Internationa...

Price Price
$64.080
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
A.O. Smith(AOS-N) 

March 21, 2019

He likes it a lot. They are into water purification and air purification in NA and India and China. They are not making money in China but not losing.
misc industrial products
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He likes it a lot. They are into water purification and air purification in NA and India and China. They are not making money in China but not losing.
misc industrial products
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David Driscoll

President , Liberty Internationa...

Price Price
$52.850
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY
Littelfuse Inc.(LFUS-Q) 

March 21, 2019

Bunch of engineers in Chicago that make fuses. Great opportunity ahead of them. He bought in 2013. The power side of their business has been growing. Dividend have been growing at roughly 14% clip.
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS
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Bunch of engineers in Chicago that make fuses. Great opportunity ahead of them. He bought in 2013. The power side of their business has been growing. Dividend have been growing at roughly 14% clip.
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS
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David Driscoll

President , Liberty Internationa...

Price Price
$192.460
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY
Jardine Matheson(JM-SP) 

March 21, 2019

A conglomerate through South East Asia. They have been around for 250 years. They are selling their insurance business. Good Management team that would take advantage of opportunities.
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A conglomerate through South East Asia. They have been around for 250 years. They are selling their insurance business. Good Management team that would take advantage of opportunities.
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David Driscoll

President , Liberty Internationa...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY
Danaher Corp.(DHR-N) 

March 21, 2019

They just bought GE Pharma for $20 billion that supposedly is going to be an earnings accretive acquisition. The stock went up in price $6 the day it was announced. The market basically saying "you did good". Now they sit back and pay down the debt in 5 years. There is going to be a bump in earnings. Still buying but it is getting toppish.
machinery
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They just bought GE Pharma for $20 billion that supposedly is going to be an earnings accretive acquisition. The stock went up in price $6 the day it was announced. The market basically saying "you did good". Now they sit back and pay down the debt in 5 years. There is going to be a bump in earnings. Still buying but it is getting toppish.
machinery
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David Driscoll

President , Liberty Internationa...

Price Price
$132.290
Owned Owned
Yes

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DON'T BUY
ING Groep NV(ING-N) 

March 21, 2019

Straggling now with growth. The dividend is not growing. Yield is attractive but not able to grow earnings. Free cash flow has to go up.
investment companies/funds
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Straggling now with growth. The dividend is not growing. Yield is attractive but not able to grow earnings. Free cash flow has to go up.
investment companies/funds
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David Driscoll

President , Liberty Internationa...

Price Price
$12.230
Owned Owned
No

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PAST TOP PICK
Stantec Inc(STN-T) 

March 21, 2019

(A Top Pick Jan 29/18, Down 9%) They were early on this pick. One of the leaders in architecture in water systems. The dividend is growing. Still buying more. Trading at 12 or 13 times 2021 earnings.
consulting
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(A Top Pick Jan 29/18, Down 9%) They were early on this pick. One of the leaders in architecture in water systems. The dividend is growing. Still buying more. Trading at 12 or 13 times 2021 earnings.
consulting
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David Driscoll

President , Liberty Internationa...

Price Price
$31.460
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 29/18, Down 3%) Still buying more. The second best performance among all Euro banks. European Banking sector is terrible now. Yields being so low. They are AA credit.
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(A Top Pick Jan 29/18, Down 3%) Still buying more. The second best performance among all Euro banks. European Banking sector is terrible now. Yields being so low. They are AA credit.
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David Driscoll

President , Liberty Internationa...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
US TIP Bonds (TIPS) 

March 21, 2019

(A Top Pick Jan 29/18, Up 7.5%) For people that have FI in their portfolios he has 5% in inflation protected bonds.
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(A Top Pick Jan 29/18, Up 7.5%) For people that have FI in their portfolios he has 5% in inflation protected bonds.
Unknown
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David Driscoll

President , Liberty Internationa...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Yes

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HOLD
Toronto Dominion(TD-T) 

March 21, 2019

Historically it has been the best performing. They will have issues going forward in auto loans. Not a lot exposed to investment banking.
banks
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Historically it has been the best performing. They will have issues going forward in auto loans. Not a lot exposed to investment banking.
banks
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David Driscoll

President , Liberty Internationa...

Price Price
$74.860
Owned Owned
Yes

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HOLD
Chubb Limited(CB-N) 

March 21, 2019

They are AA. The best underwriters in the business. Insurance companies are out of favor in the investment community because of global warming and other catastrophes. They pass off a lot of that risk and exposed only to 5% of the risk they cover. Not exposed to the stock market as they invest exclusively in bonds.
insurance
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They are AA. The best underwriters in the business. Insurance companies are out of favor in the investment community because of global warming and other catastrophes. They pass off a lot of that risk and exposed only to 5% of the risk they cover. Not exposed to the stock market as they invest exclusively in bonds.
insurance
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David Driscoll

President , Liberty Internationa...

Price Price
$136.170
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
In a registered account is fine. In a taxable account you are having a combination of interest and ROC and dividends.
Utilities
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In a registered account is fine. In a taxable account you are having a combination of interest and ROC and dividends.
Utilities
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David Driscoll

President , Liberty Internationa...

Price Price
$41.940
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

March 21, 2019

Question on analyzing debt on a balance sheet - The first thing to look at is debt to cash flow. If you have 2 times debt to cash flow you are fine. At 4, 5 things get difficult. The other things is how it is spread out over time. The credit rating is important as well.
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Question on analyzing debt on a balance sheet - The first thing to look at is debt to cash flow. If you have 2 times debt to cash flow you are fine. At 4, 5 things get difficult. The other things is how it is spread out over time. The credit rating is important as well.
Unknown
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David Driscoll

President , Liberty Internationa...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
He likes asset light. Basically a logistic firm. They suffer when gas prices are rising. There is a dearth in trucks drivers now. They are hurting in their fresh business now. They are making good margins on everything else. They have price power. As well as the economy is doing well they do well.
Transportation
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He likes asset light. Basically a logistic firm. They suffer when gas prices are rising. There is a dearth in trucks drivers now. They are hurting in their fresh business now. They are making good margins on everything else. They have price power. As well as the economy is doing well they do well.
Transportation
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David Driscoll

President , Liberty Internationa...

Price Price
$87.280
Owned Owned
Unknown

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