Stock Opinions by David Driscoll - Stockchase Experts
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2005
David Driscoll @

On Stockchase since : Oct 2000

President & CEO at Liberty International Investment Management Inc

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Stock Opinions by David Driscoll - Stockchase Experts

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

November 2, 2018

This morning the U.S. wage increase scared the market, because this means the US Fed will likely raise interest rates. ETFs and index funds exacerbate volatility at the end of the day. Add to the Trump, the US Midterms will be Tuesday. If the Dems capture the House, then Wall St. won't benefit as much from deregulation Next April with Q1 earnings, corporations will no longer benefit from the tax cut, when we will likely see reality. He forecasts only 5-10% earnings growth, so he can't justify current high multiples. The Fed wants the interest rate to be 4-5% for wiggle room during a recesssion. The riding USD is pressuring currencies in emerging markets leading to a global slowdown or American companies exposed to EM (i.e. tech stocks) which are getting hit now. We saw this in the 1997 Asian Contagion, then two years later the tech bubble burst. Investors should be conservative now. We could get anything from a 20-50% correction down the road. Having no more than 20% cash is necessary, giving you downside protection. Remember that dividends will always pay, regardless of the price of the stock. Look for dividend growers.
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This morning the U.S. wage increase scared the market, because this means the US Fed will likely raise interest rates. ETFs and index funds exacerbate volatility at the end of the day. Add to the Trump, the US Midterms will be Tuesday. If the Dems capture the House, then Wall St. won't benefit as much from deregulation Next April with Q1 earnings, corporations will no longer benefit from the tax cut, when we will likely see reality. He forecasts only 5-10% earnings growth, so he can't justify current high multiples. The Fed wants the interest rate to be 4-5% for wiggle room during a recesssion. The riding USD is pressuring currencies in emerging markets leading to a global slowdown or American companies exposed to EM (i.e. tech stocks) which are getting hit now. We saw this in the 1997 Asian Contagion, then two years later the tech bubble burst. Investors should be conservative now. We could get anything from a 20-50% correction down the road. Having no more than 20% cash is necessary, giving you downside protection. Remember that dividends will always pay, regardless of the price of the stock. Look for dividend growers.
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David Driscoll

President , Liberty Internationa...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY

A midcap and will own for the next 10-20 years. They're good at what they do. Revenue is up 13%. They give you lots of cushion in a down market. Even in a recession, they will grow over time. They turn around their cash flow faster than their net income to allow them to acquire more and pay down debt quickly. 15-20x earnings. Dividend grower. He will add during correections, but has no plans to sell. 

electrical/electronic
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A midcap and will own for the next 10-20 years. They're good at what they do. Revenue is up 13%. They give you lots of cushion in a down market. Even in a recession, they will grow over time. They turn around their cash flow faster than their net income to allow them to acquire more and pay down debt quickly. 15-20x earnings. Dividend grower. He will add during correections, but has no plans to sell. 

electrical/electronic
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David Driscoll

President , Liberty Internationa...

Price Price
$285.280
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY on WEAKNESS
Visa Inc.(V-N) 

November 2, 2018

The payments space is huge, because nobody's writing cheques and people are using smartphones. Has 12% revenue growth. Number of cards increase 80 million to 3.3 billion. Total Visa volume surpassed a record $11 trillion. Likes the company, but hates the price. Multiple is too high. A free cash-flow company that continues to grow. He'd buy this at a lower price. 31.25 P/E is unjustifiable.

other services
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The payments space is huge, because nobody's writing cheques and people are using smartphones. Has 12% revenue growth. Number of cards increase 80 million to 3.3 billion. Total Visa volume surpassed a record $11 trillion. Likes the company, but hates the price. Multiple is too high. A free cash-flow company that continues to grow. He'd buy this at a lower price. 31.25 P/E is unjustifiable.

other services
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David Driscoll

President , Liberty Internationa...

Price Price
$139.780
Owned Owned
Unknown

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PARTIAL BUY
Littelfuse Inc.(LFUS-Q) 

November 2, 2018

A long-term hold or trading stock? They make fuses. Fuses, sensors and LED lighting is their future. He's long held this and will hold it. Analysts don't understand this stock. Very volatile. has 8% organic growth, over double the U.S. market. 17% profit increase in the past year. Auto sector was weak in Europe and China, but they generate a lot of  free cash flow. A recent acquisition has been paid off already. It's in a cyclical industry and it's a small mid-cap stock, so there's no volatility when the wider market goes down. The dividend has tripled in 8 years. There's lots of growth coming. Buy half now and buy more later. If you own it, hold it and enjoy the ride.

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS
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A long-term hold or trading stock? They make fuses. Fuses, sensors and LED lighting is their future. He's long held this and will hold it. Analysts don't understand this stock. Very volatile. has 8% organic growth, over double the U.S. market. 17% profit increase in the past year. Auto sector was weak in Europe and China, but they generate a lot of  free cash flow. A recent acquisition has been paid off already. It's in a cyclical industry and it's a small mid-cap stock, so there's no volatility when the wider market goes down. The dividend has tripled in 8 years. There's lots of growth coming. Buy half now and buy more later. If you own it, hold it and enjoy the ride.

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS
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David Driscoll

President , Liberty Internationa...

Price Price
$191.750
Owned Owned
Yes

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PARTIAL BUY
Amazon.com(AMZN-Q) 

November 2, 2018

You can buy an initial half-position now. Id it doubles, don't buy more. If it comes down, buy more. Has had wild price swings lately. Online revenue is growing 17%. They're trying to expand outside the U.S. but face rivals. They also face competition from MSFT in cloud services and now from IBM with their Red Hat purchase. Be careful with Amazon. This could easily fall 30%, so own half a position now.

specialty stores
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You can buy an initial half-position now. Id it doubles, don't buy more. If it comes down, buy more. Has had wild price swings lately. Online revenue is growing 17%. They're trying to expand outside the U.S. but face rivals. They also face competition from MSFT in cloud services and now from IBM with their Red Hat purchase. Be careful with Amazon. This could easily fall 30%, so own half a position now.

specialty stores
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David Driscoll

President , Liberty Internationa...

Price Price
$1665.530
Owned Owned
Unknown

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PAST TOP PICK
A.O. Smith(AOS-N) 

November 2, 2018

(A Top Pick Oct 04/17, Down 20%) Steel tariffs hurt them hard. Profit is up 13% instead of 15% so the stock got crushed. Increased the dividend 28% earlier this year. Genreates a ton of free cash flow. Weak housing starts in the U.S. and China hurt them. But last week's earnings saw a pop. He will add more shares later.

misc industrial products
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(A Top Pick Oct 04/17, Down 20%) Steel tariffs hurt them hard. Profit is up 13% instead of 15% so the stock got crushed. Increased the dividend 28% earlier this year. Genreates a ton of free cash flow. Weak housing starts in the U.S. and China hurt them. But last week's earnings saw a pop. He will add more shares later.

misc industrial products
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David Driscoll

President , Liberty Internationa...

Price Price
$48.090
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Toromont Industries(TIH-T) 

November 2, 2018

(A Top Pick Oct 04/17, Up 8%) They they do well during these times when the economy is strong and there's infrastructure building. They surprised last quarter with a dividend increase of 21%.

machinery
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(A Top Pick Oct 04/17, Up 8%) They they do well during these times when the economy is strong and there's infrastructure building. They surprised last quarter with a dividend increase of 21%.

machinery
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David Driscoll

President , Liberty Internationa...

Price Price
$61.590
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Novo-Nordisk(NVO-N) 

November 2, 2018

(A Top Pick Oct 04/17, Down 7%) Has owned this for 22 years. #1 insulin maker in the world. Just came out with a drug for weight loss. There'll be a 54% increase in diabetes in 12 years. They and Merck had the best revenue growth. Stock fell a little because a competitor got FDA approval for a similar insulin. They are selling more outside the U.S. and need to sell more to China and India. Then, the street will favour them again.

biotechnology/pharmaceutical
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(A Top Pick Oct 04/17, Down 7%) Has owned this for 22 years. #1 insulin maker in the world. Just came out with a drug for weight loss. There'll be a 54% increase in diabetes in 12 years. They and Merck had the best revenue growth. Stock fell a little because a competitor got FDA approval for a similar insulin. They are selling more outside the U.S. and need to sell more to China and India. Then, the street will favour them again.

biotechnology/pharmaceutical
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David Driscoll

President , Liberty Internationa...

Price Price
$43.720
Owned Owned
Yes

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HOLD
CCL Industries (B)(CCL.B-T) 

November 2, 2018

Worth buying for a TFSA? Yes. And he has no plans to sell it. Cyclicals will do well when the economy is doing well, but do poorly when the economy slows or the company makes a purchase and must pay for it. The latter is happening to CCL. They're growing but now as quickly as investors expect. One acquisition is holding back their bottom line. This will fall off in the next recession. Packaging success will depend on the wider economy. Their main issue is price inflation with resin prices rising, and CCL didn't pass on that increase yet.

packaging/containers
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Worth buying for a TFSA? Yes. And he has no plans to sell it. Cyclicals will do well when the economy is doing well, but do poorly when the economy slows or the company makes a purchase and must pay for it. The latter is happening to CCL. They're growing but now as quickly as investors expect. One acquisition is holding back their bottom line. This will fall off in the next recession. Packaging success will depend on the wider economy. Their main issue is price inflation with resin prices rising, and CCL didn't pass on that increase yet.

packaging/containers
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David Driscoll

President , Liberty Internationa...

Price Price
$56.820
Owned Owned
Yes

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WAIT
Atlantia SpA (ATL-BIT) 

November 2, 2018

They own toll roads in Spain now. Also India, Brazil and Chile. They own the duty free shops in the Rome and Nice airports. They're getting blamed for the Genoa bridge collapse (they own Italian toll roads), which has hit the stock. He's waiting to see how the Italian government reacts.

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They own toll roads in Spain now. Also India, Brazil and Chile. They own the duty free shops in the Rome and Nice airports. They're getting blamed for the Genoa bridge collapse (they own Italian toll roads), which has hit the stock. He's waiting to see how the Italian government reacts.

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David Driscoll

President , Liberty Internationa...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY
Paychex(PAYX-Q) 

November 2, 2018

Payroll processor for small/medium-sized companies. They're a cash cow. Interest rates are rising, so they make more money. In the last quarter, organic growth was 9%, 3x the US economy's rate. Profits up 18%. Dividend rising. Unlike Square, PAYX deals with all the States in America. Trades at 18-21x earnings. Dividend around 3%.
computer software/processing
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Payroll processor for small/medium-sized companies. They're a cash cow. Interest rates are rising, so they make more money. In the last quarter, organic growth was 9%, 3x the US economy's rate. Profits up 18%. Dividend rising. Unlike Square, PAYX deals with all the States in America. Trades at 18-21x earnings. Dividend around 3%.
computer software/processing
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David Driscoll

President , Liberty Internationa...

Price Price
$65.490
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY
Altagas Ltd(ALA-T) 

November 2, 2018

Sell after doubling down recently? They'll likely cut the dividend; that's why there's major selling. They swallowed a lot of debt to pay for the WGL purchase. They sold some assets, but it's not enough--they need to sell more. They just missed targets badly. Failed to pay a good price for WGL and he doesn't feel they can absorb WGL with its other assets.
oil/gas
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Sell after doubling down recently? They'll likely cut the dividend; that's why there's major selling. They swallowed a lot of debt to pay for the WGL purchase. They sold some assets, but it's not enough--they need to sell more. They just missed targets badly. Failed to pay a good price for WGL and he doesn't feel they can absorb WGL with its other assets.
oil/gas
0 0 0 0 0
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David Driscoll

President , Liberty Internationa...

Price Price
$15.270
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY
Mastercard Inc.(MA-N) 

November 2, 2018

Visa vs. Mastercard? MC is sluggish in Europe. Visa is making deals in India, which MC doen't like. MC has a long relationship with PayPal. MC's earnings are up $1.70, but mostly due to tax cuts. Do half a position. If it doubles, don't buy more. Managing your cash is the most improtant think. He likes both stocks, but not these prices.

other services
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Visa vs. Mastercard? MC is sluggish in Europe. Visa is making deals in India, which MC doen't like. MC has a long relationship with PayPal. MC's earnings are up $1.70, but mostly due to tax cuts. Do half a position. If it doubles, don't buy more. Managing your cash is the most improtant think. He likes both stocks, but not these prices.

other services
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David Driscoll

President , Liberty Internationa...

Price Price
$197.720
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY

India's currency has fallen. Oil pricess have rose (their big product), so inflation is running rampant now. FIU is like a hedge fund for Prem Watsa. So, he'd rather own Fairfax parent company, FFH, than this subsidiary. FIU is mostly infrastructure. He doesn't like how they manage this Indian subsidiary.

E.T.F.'s
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India's currency has fallen. Oil pricess have rose (their big product), so inflation is running rampant now. FIU is like a hedge fund for Prem Watsa. So, he'd rather own Fairfax parent company, FFH, than this subsidiary. FIU is mostly infrastructure. He doesn't like how they manage this Indian subsidiary.

E.T.F.'s
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David Driscoll

President , Liberty Internationa...

Price Price
$13.090
Owned Owned
No

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DON'T BUY
Northrop Grumman(NOC-N) 

November 2, 2018

The defense stocks are falling out of fears that the Democrats could take the House on the Tuesday U.S. Midterms and remove the defense budget. Trump is basically an arms dealer who insulates himself from the world while he sells arms to each other and kill each other while he walks away with all the money. NOC sales are up 23%, but they didn't hit on all segments, so investors got gunshy. Only 2 of their 4 subsidiaries are making money and growing at a good clip, but not the rest.

Transportation
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The defense stocks are falling out of fears that the Democrats could take the House on the Tuesday U.S. Midterms and remove the defense budget. Trump is basically an arms dealer who insulates himself from the world while he sells arms to each other and kill each other while he walks away with all the money. NOC sales are up 23%, but they didn't hit on all segments, so investors got gunshy. Only 2 of their 4 subsidiaries are making money and growing at a good clip, but not the rest.

Transportation
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David Driscoll

President , Liberty Internationa...

Price Price
$273.800
Owned Owned
Unknown

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