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COMMENT
Rate changes and REITs.

There's a lot of focus on interest rates. In his business, he finds that it's more about the stability of rates than about the direction. The past 6 months have seen greater stability in interest rates, which lets transaction activity pick up. That should lead to price discovery in the sector, and makes him bullish on some key themes.

COMMENT
REITs in the face of AI enthusiasm.

REITs have come off. If you look at a chart of real estate stocks in the S&P 500, valuations are at their lowest levels relative to the rest of the S&P. This group has really been unloved, with the big chase in tech. 

As a result, you have great businesses, a great store of value, with growth that's being completely overlooked. Public real estate is trading at a very wide discount to the NAV of the private market. Should be a lot of opportunity heading into 2026. It's a typical environment where you can imagine M&A activity picking up. Great time to look at the space.

COMMENT
Dividends.

Dividends in the sector are growing because the property fundamentals are so strong. It's a very bullish sign. Great sign to see cashflow increasing and, with it, the ability to pass it on to unitholders. 

BUY
European or global REIT exposure as ERE.UN winds up?

One of the big opportunities today is in the European industrial warehouse space. Heavily discounted, a great opportunity. Issue today is that the UK has seen a big increase in interest rates. He thinks that overhang is far too much.

BUY
European or global REIT exposure as ERE.UN winds up?

One of the big opportunities today is in the European industrial warehouse space. Heavily discounted, a great opportunity. Issue today is that the UK has seen a big increase in interest rates. He thinks that overhang is far too much.

DON'T BUY

Dividend is quite high, which is typically a red flag that it can't sustain dividend from cashflow. And that's the case here. AFFO (payout ratio) is above 100%, not good. Seeing vacancies, so cashflow's gone negative. Elevated debt.

SELL

Return-to-office mandate picking up. Stock's benefited due to that sentiment, but hasn't translated to operations. Now trading ~10% above consensus NAV. He looks to buy stocks trading at discount to NAV. Fundamental supply/demand picture still not great. Doesn't believe on track to meet occupancy or debt target by year's end. 

Better office opportunities elsewhere, perhaps in the US.

DON'T BUY
Dividend close to 7%.

Very defensive, and so distribution is high. Flipside of being defensive and with high occupancy rates is that growth of 1-1.5% is below inflation. Higher leverage means income doesn't translate to earnings potential. Better opportunities, especially in necessity-based retail.

DON'T BUY

Both LTC and home healthcare. Long waitlist for LTC beds, so no risk on earnings side. Very good at managing margins. 

Home healthcare is what's growing -- asset light, so dividend won't be as enticing as with other names. Demographics are on its side, but it's hard for him to assign a NAV to it. He'd focus more on names like CSH.UN and SIA.

DON'T BUY

Really an oligopoly among the 3-4 major owners, who provide service to 3-4 operators. One of the operators is coming off cell towers, and that space will need to be leased. Big question is what does satellite connectivity do to cell towers? Too many headwinds.

BUY
Bought around $53.

Lower-yielding stock by design, and he likes that as it gives them a lot of flexibility. Thinks very highly of management. 72% of net operating income comes from non-rent-controlled markets. Mostly in Alberta, which is affordable for people. Good level to buy today. Yield is 2.4%.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 31/24, Up 14%)

Recession- and tariff-resilient. Very defensive. Lots of growth. Record-high occupancy levels of 97.2%. Renewing leases at 16%, above historical averages. Still lots of good upside.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 31/24, Up 34%)

Phenomenal growth in the space. NAV is his firm's "north star", and the north star just keeps moving. On track to 95% occupancy, at 93% right now. Acquiring homes in an accretive manner. Sees great growth over the next year.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 31/24, Down 27%)

Negative sentiment on travel to the US, which is affecting attendance at the Empire State Building. Operating income went down in Q2. Sentiment is hard to fight, so he exited and found other names in NY office space.

DON'T BUY

Diversified across type and geography. Recent announcement would see it effectively sold at 44% discount to integral value. Distribution moving from monthly to quarterly, and much lower. Definitely avoid.

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