Venture Global (VG)

It reports Tuesday. One of the best ways to invest in the world's natural gas. Is up 67% this year, but has pulled back 20% the past month.

About 25% of volume exposed to spot pricing. Spot's up ~150% YTD. He looked at it, and decided a lot of the juice was already baked in. He's positive on LNG as a theme, but it's difficult to benefit from that.

Is up 132% this year alone. Are heavily involved in LNG epxorting. LNG is booking during the Iran war. Is a pure play in LNG.

Is -71.5% since its IPO last year. Was the second-largest IPO and has become a horror show.

Shares plunged earlier this year from its IPO price of $25 to $6.75 in April, but has since rebounded. A few years ago, they sold LNG cargos at high spot prices, even though they'd already agreed to lower price exports with the first customers they'd signed. Was considered shady and controversial. It could benefit from the US-EU trade deal. However, they are limited by lower-priced contracts, which limits their upside.

A natural gas company that IPO'd Thursday at an initial price much smaller than expected. Last week, they aimed to raise 50 million shares at $40-60 each, but then raised that to 70 million at $23-27 per. They got a $60 billion valuation out of the gate. Not bad, but below expectations. Then shares slipped Friday today. What went wrong? The company is mired in arbitration. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, VG started selling its LNG at suddenly-higher LNG prices, instead of at lower prices as previously agreed to existing customers. VG may have to honour those lower contracts. That said, VG has been profitable for at least the last three years, but for the first 9 months of 2024, revenue was -45%, operating income -72% and net income -79%. Their second production facility just started last December, which should help but how much? Their numbers are too noisy. But overall this is a great story. They are building new facilities in the Gulf of Mexico.