Tesla Inc (TSLA)

Absolutely put money in today. Trying to find their way, but not giving full guidance and spending a heck of a lot of $$. Thinks they're purposely not communicating fully. Taking $$ from EVs and redeploying into retooling for Optimus. A lot has to go right on execution. On Tuesday, MS put price target at $475.

Tricky. Always trades at an insane multiple, but somehow the market gives it a pass because it loves the vision of Musk. Growing at 30%, but trades at 90x PE.  Sales were really good. Will probably merge with SPCX. Now that he's seen the numbers, SPCX is the better buy.

Instead of SPCX, buy this one as an angle to get into Musk's orbit. Math is stretched, but he bought some this week because the segments will probably merge sooner than we think.

Loves it at this price. Being influenced by SpaceX. He's learned with this one that you buy around $350-375, and let it go between $425-450. So many horses in the race. Has EVs, but batteries are an even bigger business (and more revenue), which will themselves be overtaken by Optimus (robotics) later this year. It works for them because it's all vertically integrated. No dividend.

Too much on the cowboy side for him :)  Wild valuation. His colleague wrote an interesting article, found under Insights at goodreid.com, on founders who still run their companies.

He owns GM instead.

His preference for the play on robotics -- they're rolling them out this year. Things are changing so fast on both quantum and AI, and the intersection of those 2 areas leads to robotics.

Tech hit a bottom last Monday with peak pessimism, and started to rebound last Monday. UBS upgraded TSLA today and is up 7% today. He just added shares.

They reported Q1 last week and disappointed: 385K deliveries, well below expectations, but they totaled 408K vehicles in production, increasing 13% YOY, possibly creating excess inventory and leading to cutting prices. Also, energy storage was 8.8 gigawatt hours deployed vs. the expected 14.4, very disappointing. That said, Tesla has seen auto deliveries decline for 2 years, after peaking in 2023-4 while earnings peaked in 2022 at $4.07 EPS before falling 23%, 22% and another 31% in the next three years, nearly 60%. over 5 years, shares are up 53%. Tesla needs show growth in another area, robotaxis, to inspire shareholders, but there's no indication of sales or progress in this area. With their car business deteriorating, investors are starting to wonder if this is a dangerous stock, especially with Musk taking SpaceX public in the future. But that could trigger a sell-off of Tesla shares to buy SpaceX--right now, Tesla is the only way to invest in Musk, which is scarcity value, but that will end when SpaceX goes public. Until there's progress in robotaxis, Tesla shares will continue to fall.

It is below its 200 day moving average and at 185 times earnings it is too expensive, even though there is potential growth. Lots of competition. He has never owned it.